alexwcovington
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:14 PM
Original message |
Electoral Math: Louisiana and North Dakota could mean a win |
|
Edited on Mon Jan-19-04 07:14 PM by alexwcovington
I've been playing around with some electoral math... all we need is ten more electoral votes than 2000... That means that all we need is Louisiana and a small state like North Dakota!
|
ButterflyBlood
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:17 PM
Response to Original message |
1. we aren't winning North Dakota |
|
I used to live there. Trust me on this one. About as lost a cause as we can get.
|
rockymountaindem
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:21 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
5. Didn't ND go for Gore? |
ButterflyBlood
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:24 PM
Response to Reply #5 |
|
Bush 60.66% Gore 33.06% Nader 3.29% Buchanan 2.53%
Hasn't gone to a Democrat since the LBJ landslide of 1964.
|
alexwcovington
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
17. That was the weakest showing for the GOP ever in ND since LBJ |
|
The tide is moving our direction.
|
ButterflyBlood
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:36 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
|
Clinton only lost by 7 points in 1996 (a fairly landslide year). But in 1988, Dukakis got 43% to Bush I's 56% despite being trounced nationwide. Carter got 46% in 1976, a decent showing. the state is moving swiftly to the right.
|
alexwcovington
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
7. You want to keep insulting me and my associates? |
|
You don't think we can swing North Dakota? I must say I'm very hurt by your lack of hope but you'll see the results come November.
|
ButterflyBlood
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
11. of all small states, why pick one that went to Bush over 60% |
|
and hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964? come on. And no, I don't think we can swing it anymore than we can swing Utah.
|
alexwcovington
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
|
Edited on Mon Jan-19-04 07:30 PM by alexwcovington
Typical defeatist outmigration garbage. I tell you what, if you and everyone like you came back and voted, we would swing things around.
But no. You have no hope for our state and that is the problem. Fine. Move out into Minnesota and the East Coast. But don't complain about the broken things behind you never tried to fix.
|
are_we_united_yet
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 08:21 PM
Response to Reply #13 |
28. Its good to be positive |
|
but one should also be realistic.
|
SmileyBoy
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
29. Dean could win Cass County. |
|
He could also carry Grand Forks County if the campaign folks work on it a little.
|
ButterflyBlood
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #29 |
32. Grand Forks might be easier |
|
but neither one would be enough for a win.
|
lastliberalintexas
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:17 PM
Response to Original message |
|
I'm not sure if we could get North Dakota, but I'm no expert on that state! But I think we could have a very good shot at those 3, esp depending on who our nominee is. And Ohio and Arizona are good possibilities, though I doubt they're as likely pickups as LA and WV.
Personally, I don't think our electoral prospects are all that bad. I'm glad to see someone post something positive for a change! :hi:
|
ButterflyBlood
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
6. i lived in ND for 18 years |
|
so i might be considered an expert. the odds of the Democrats winning the state are equal to Lyndon LaRouche's of winning the nomination.
|
alexwcovington
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
8. Stop slandering the Dem-NPL |
|
We can turn things around.
|
ButterflyBlood
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
|
might I ask where, and give me your strat. I lived in Bismarck and while it was probably considered "liberal" by the rural folk, it was still full of fundie churches and some of the most bigoted letters to the editor i've ever seen. It's also next to Kidder county, which was Buchanan's best county in 2000 where he got almost 10%, and still gave Bush over 60%. you think we can win a state like that?
|
alexwcovington
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:39 PM
Response to Reply #12 |
22. Depends on whether or not you are part of that "we" |
|
I'm from Minot, going to UND right now, and I'm seeing a lot of unrest in the so-called "Bush country."
Progressives are starting to speak aloud again, and this is going to be a big trend. I think we're on the edge of a second Progressive Era here... we just need to go out there and stand on soapboxes and draw the crowds.
|
ButterflyBlood
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:48 PM
Response to Reply #22 |
24. Minot and Grand Forks are too of the most liberal cities in the state |
|
both would be in the top 3, along with Fargo (not counting the Reservations). Unrest against Bush in those areas doesn't mean much going on in the rural parts.
|
SmileyBoy
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 08:26 PM
Response to Reply #12 |
30. Fargo's the most liberal city in the state. |
|
Lots of college folks (like me) over here. Like I said, Dean or Clark could carry Cass County, which carries around 20 percent of the state's population.
|
lastliberalintexas
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:30 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
16. Don't take it personally |
|
Heck, I acknowledge that Texas is a lost cause, but that doesn't diminish the amount of work that I and my fellow Dems do down here. It's just being realistic!
Course, with our changing demographics, Texas *will* be in play within the decade! We will soon be a majority minority state trending Dem- hence the re-re-districting this past year. Wouldn't want those repubs to have to try and win fair and aquare, now would we?
|
alexwcovington
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:34 PM
Response to Reply #16 |
19. Well, you're sticking around. |
|
People like ButterflyBlood are typical of people leaving North Dakota; they complain about how things are *after* they leave rather than trying to make an actual difference come about.
|
ButterflyBlood
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:39 PM
Response to Reply #19 |
21. No, I complained about things while I was there |
|
and I find it much easier to move to a state with a far more progressive attitude and where I can drive less than an hour and a half to a major metro area that actually has things to do rather than sticking around and spending the energy trying to change things.
|
alexwcovington
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
23. And you wouldn't like to see the day where we have that in ND? |
|
It doesn't just HAPPEN. It takes effort. Yes, hard work, for a long time, and it's not going to be encouraging for a while. But progress is inevitable, even here. If we work at it, it can happen.
It's not just politics. It's "things to do" as well. The reason why there "isn't anything to do" is because nobody is trying to pull those things together.
We need some initiative here. We can make things turn around.
What line of work do you plan to go into? And how could you possibly do that in North Dakota? And what other problems do you see North Dakota as needing to fix?
Ask yourself these questions. We truly need change here, and the only way to do that is by changing the mindsets of both the residents and the expatriates.
|
ButterflyBlood
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:53 PM
Response to Reply #23 |
25. to be honest, i don't care |
|
it's not my responsibility to change a backwards state just because i happened to be born there, especially when my whole family is native Minnesotan, both my parents are native Minnesotan, and will probably be moving back there once they retire. Backwards areas will always exist, and I'll leave them to people who enjoy being there. There's no reason why I should have to work any harder to live in a progressive place I enjoy any more than a New Yorker or West Coaster has to.
Aside from that even if the state turned into a progressive bastion overnight, it's still far too rural and boring for me. I'm probably moving to the Twin Cities once I graduate, if not sooner, and that's the type of place I want to live, not somewhere where you have to drive more than an hour till the next town with a movie theater.
|
alexwcovington
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 08:00 PM
Response to Reply #25 |
27. Well then don't taunt the ones who stick around |
|
If you're giving up, give up. But stop slandering the work of the people you leave behind. We haven't given up our hope, and we don't need your type ruining our work in the eyes of progressives nationwide.
|
SmileyBoy
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 08:28 PM
Response to Reply #23 |
31. I'm planning on living in Fargo once I get my degree. But... |
|
...I wouldn't live in ANY OTHER part of the state. It's mainly a nostalgia factor for my coming back here also.
|
LiberalFighter
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 09:28 PM
Response to Reply #16 |
33. The other purpose of working in "lost" states... |
|
is that the work will spread to states that are winnable.
This would not be as likely if it were 100 years ago. But with the internet age, cell phones and cable networks we can make a difference beyond our community.
Each person that we touch within our network expands the work to their network. Through work, friends, family and other daily interaction.
Before the nuclear family the families lived and died in their communities. Their reach outside their community might happen once in a blue moon. Life was slow.
So locations in states that are supporters may swing enough in a neighboring state to our side. Communities in North Dakota near the border of Minnesota could keep Minnesota with us. In the case of Arizona, California and New Mexico could act to change Arizona. Michigan and Pennsylvania could act to change Ohio in the next election.
|
hatrack
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:18 PM
Response to Original message |
3. It's even simpler than that |
|
Take the states Gore won in 2000, and add Missouri.
271 Democratic 268 Republican
|
alexwcovington
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #3 |
|
But I'd really like to see a campaign that'd swing across the entire nation and include everyone.
North Dakota is closer than a lot of people might think to swinging over.
|
wuushew
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:20 PM
Response to Original message |
4. North Dakota is red and has only (3) votes LA (9 ) could cause tie |
|
Edited on Mon Jan-19-04 07:22 PM by wuushew
However if this pissed off people in regards to the electoral college resulting in less red representation the long term gains might be worth it.
|
LiberalFighter
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 10:20 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
34. We can win with any combination of states that went bush... |
|
totaling in double digits.
Our best bets are: AZ 51-45 -- Electoral Votes 10 AR 51-46 -- Electoral Votes 06 CO 51-42 -- Electoral Votes 09 FL 49-49 -- Electoral Votes 27 LA 53-45 -- Electoral Votes 09 NH 48-47 -- Electoral Votes 04 OH 50-46 -- Electoral Votes 20 TN 51-47 -- Electoral Votes 11 WV 52-46 -- Electoral Votes 05 MO 50-47 -- Electoral Votes 11
|
onecitizen
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:29 PM
Response to Original message |
14. I think WV may go Dem........ |
|
this time. We know we made a mistake in 2000.
|
alexwcovington
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:30 PM
Response to Reply #14 |
15. Yeah I've heard about that one too |
|
I think we can gain ground in a lot of states like that.
|
wuushew
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #14 |
18. Need 5 more if WV goes blue, NH would result in another tie |
jus_the_facts
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Mon Jan-19-04 07:58 PM
Response to Original message |
26. well eventhough Dems have been bein' elected here in Louisiana.... |
|
...as of late...I'd not be too surprised to see the electoral votes go to (*)...it'd be just about the ass backwards results I'd expect to see for some reason... x(
|
DU
AdBot (1000+ posts) |
Fri May 03rd 2024, 10:03 AM
Response to Original message |