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loftycity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:49 AM
Original message
Black hole in US Economy
  Wednesday, January 21, 2004  

"Black Hole" Found in US Economy
Hiding costs and "energy eating" cycle started in
Reagan/Bush I Era

Contact: Dan Spillane DanSLegal@aol.com Citizens for Corporate
Accountability 410 Denny Way #229 Seattle, WA 98122 (206)
860-2858

(Update 18, 01/21/04, Notes Dec 2003 CPI fuel oil cost
vanishing, editorial)

(SEATTLE) 01/06/04 - In a troubling sign that accounting
problems have grown beyond corporate balance sheets, two of
the main economic gauges used by Wall Street, banks, and in
the calculation of Social Security payments have been found to
contain serious problems. The makeup or "weightings"
of the gauges have been set and modified recently so they hide
real inflation. Also, a complicated "circular"
cycle--much like a "black hole"--has been found
within one of the gauges, which not only places the US
financial system at risk, but "eats energy",
resulting in dramatic and permanent increases in demand for
energy, at a time when our soldiers are dying overseas because
of energy-related tensions (1) (2) (3).

The problems were identified in the Consumer Price Index(CPI)
and Producer Price Index(PPI), by examining contents of tables
provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS), and
comparing weightings for the most recent years against each
other, and against independent statistics which account for
the same costs.

According to official BLS tables, in the energy category,
several changes were put in to reduce energy cost weightings
in the indices recently, including one which reduces
importance of “housing fuels and utilities”in the overall CPI
index by a whopping ten percent(4), and another which pushes
winter energy cost calculations into summer(5). Also, in the
housing category, the weighting of “hotels and motels” was
increased (against the backdrop of post-Sept 11th falls in
hotel costs), while at the same time, “housing at school” got
less weighting. In the education category, the weighting of
college, elementary tuition, and childcare was recently
reduced.

As recently as December 2003, a 2.1 percent increase in the
CPI for fuel oil cost mysteriously vanished in a seasonal
adjustment--and was instead reported as 0.6 percent(12).

Going back many years, the costs of running large
energy-consuming homes (like categories related to energy,
gas, and utilities for the home) have been slowly and
mysteriously removed from the CPI 9
(snip) 

Disturbingly, in the most recent table which rates relative
importance of health insurance, cost is placed below other
categories such as “Recreational Reading Materials”, “Pets”,
and “Toys.” Health insurance accounting for the most recent
table is off by a significant factor of fifteen--and is set to
a level below that in 1995 (6).

To Moderators--Hope this is OK .
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:57 AM
Response to Original message
1. Excellent post - funny how energy rip-offs do not get reported as "bad"
any more -

and how the health care insurance rip-off is buried by stories of ins. company threats to leave business if they do not get more gov. money.
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loftycity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Thanks,I've sent this one out
Kinda of new to all this.I have received so many comments on this one post. Severe Manipulation.
This is why the economy is so whacked.
The Health Insurance shoveled and buried makes me so angry!
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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 12:20 PM
Response to Original message
3. Lofty, Is Some of This Seasonal Adjustment?
The whole issue is troubling to me, but a couple of your references sound like smoothing rather hiding:
...in the energy category, several changes were put in to reduce energy cost weightings ... and another which pushes winter energy cost calculations into summer(5).

As recently as December 2003, a 2.1 percent increase in the CPI for fuel oil cost mysteriously vanished in a seasonal adjustment--and was instead reported as 0.6 percent(12).
If they smooth in the winter but not in the summer, the number are dishonest. But he isn't that specific. The author appears to have studied the CPI methodology carefully. I just wish he would describe more specifically what some the changes are.

Some of the article uses colorful scare language without going on to explain the metaphor:
Also, a complicated "circular" cycle--much like a "black hole"--has been found within one of the gauges, which not only places the US financial system at risk, but "eats energy", resulting in dramatic and permanent increases in demand for energy, at a time when our soldiers are dying overseas because of energy-related tensions.
What is this circular cycle? It may understate inflation, but how does it "put the US financial system at risk"?

Thanks for the article. I know you didn't write this personally. The misleading CPI is a really important issue. I just wish the author were able to explain his findings in a way that economists and businessmen could take seriously.

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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. The Author of this Article Posts Frequently on DU
He was also very involved in the Black Box voting project and has now moved on to tackle this. His name on DU is DanSpillane.

Here's a link to a thread about this he participated in:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1043040
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loftycity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. Here is the site
www.LibertyWhistle.us
I thought is was an interesting perspective..with all things written.
Discrimination is always good.
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 12:45 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. Many unknowns - but what is known is effect - and I think that's poster's
point.

The CPI changes are referred to as planned in 1998 - but just done.

I can not verify that - or get a reason for the delay, if there was one.

The CPI weightings - as the poster noted - do not pass "reasonableness" test based on what is obvious re prices and importance to an aging population.

A low CPI putting "US financial system at risk" is - I suspect - just a reference to delayed correction causing folks to ignore deficits and dollar exchange value and trade deficit changes for a longer period that they would otherwise - causing a larger eventual correction.
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Bandit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 12:25 PM
Response to Original message
4. GOP Cooking the Books? ~ No say it ain't so.
Hey once a crook always a crook and everything is relative. We have a crooked Administration that is behaving in a crooked manner. Surprise surprise. Anyone here shocked by this revelation?
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Karenina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Dan is ON IT, all that
AND a bag o' chips!!! :kick:
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