Oil market tightness is likely long term

[Sliverofhope]

By JEFFREY RUBIN
Monday, March 15, 2004
The Globe and Mail ( www.globeandmail.com )

If the depletionists are right, global production of conventional crude oil should be peaking within the next couple of years, at somewhere in the neighbourhood of 65 million barrels a day.

<snip>

Not only has conventional production not grown over the past four years, but there is virtually no spare capacity left among producers belonging to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Excluding the brief period when Kuwaiti and Iraqi oil wells were ablaze during the Persian Gulf war, OPEC has not operated with such spare capacity -- 2.7 million barrels a day at present -- in nearly 30 years.

You can call it just-in-time inventories or you can call it what it really is -- Saudi Arabia running out of reserves. In fact, some commentators such as Matt Simmons of Simmons Associates believes the giant Ghawar field, home to one-eighth of the world's known oil supply, may be 80 per cent to 90 per cent depleted. Moreover, Mr. Simmons notes that depletion from Ghawar, whose production has already slowed despite massive injections of salt water to maintain well pressure, is far exceeding the discovery of replacement oil elsewhere in the kingdom.

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/031904_peak_reality.html

[ThomWV]

1. Do You All Ever Tire Of This "Peak Oil" Bullshit?

Every fuggin' day. Day in and day out, always the same old bullshit. Just as inaccurate today as it was yesterday as it will be tomorrow.

[Deja Q]

2. Okay then, I dare you:

Read this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1259591

and give me a concrete, supportive response as to what to do.

No flaming.

No anger.

No bullshit.

This shit is going to happen. We need to be the party that shows people how to survive in a radically different environment.

Otherwise we are doomed, with fascist repukes and their money being the ones who survive. Which is sad as they're human garbage.

[sadiesworld]

6. Start by working to get Kerry in the WH?

[Deja Q]

7. What will Kerry do?

Or, rather, what can he do?

I intend to vote for Kerry regadless.

I should go to his campaign website and ask for a direct response... campaigners working for their candidate can be somewhat, um, blindly loyal.

I recall writing to a local senator during the 2002 race. I got a poorly written response from a staff member of hers that she will obey the rule of law (that must be their favorite catchphrase...)

When it comes to law, it must be always in the spirit of the law. Not the rule of law. The latter is fascism.

[salib]

10. There are very good responses

These issues have been worked through in the 60s and 70s as well. Then it was the likes of Amory Lovins and Ehrlich. Take a look at http://www.rmi.org/ for a direction one can consider. Of course a resource that is mined from the ground and produced millions of years ago (from sunlight) is going to run out some time. Maybe soon. That does not mean that we cannot find alternatives, ones that are good choices even. It is a matter of conservation, justice and critical intelligence. Remember, shortages will always occur with any resource, but who really stands to benefit from scares in advance?

[revcarol]

3. And again today, you have a golden opportunity to point out where it is

inaccurate. We're waiting.

[kalian]

5. He can't....

that's the issue. People are in DENIAL over peak oil. The interesting
thing about peak oil is that its not some "conspiracy theory"...its
pure, 100% FACTS and thus, I believe, people are trying not to
come face to face with the cold, hard reality that we're facing a
looming crisis within the next 5 to 7 years....

Oh well...let them continue to live in their fantasy world.

[Deja Q]

4. Say 'toodles' to the Alaskan wilderness then...

It seems that maintaining our paltry way of life so Brit-brat can spew out more rubbish noise (er, "music") is more important than the ecosystem.

America, as it stands, will not ethically change its use of resources as a result to depleting reserves. It's going to lash out in every direction to keep its petty self going. We all know this.

[ThomWV]

8. This Peak Oil BS Is Just A Distraction

It has nothing at all to do with getting Bush out of the White House, it has nothing at all to do with getting a progressive Democrat into the White House.

I firmly believe that this Peak Oil crap is just posted here by die-hard Republicans in order to take attention away from the immediate problems this nation faces; joblessness, a shringking economy, preemptive war, occupation of foreign lands, very real terrorists who would do us harm. In putting this bullshit on the agenda what you are doing is to distract good Democrats from the real priority.

The world and this country are not going to run out of oil today, this week, this month, this year, or this decade. Bring up your point after we get the right man in the White House and quit with the distractions.

[arcos]

9. Yeah, right...

Yes, we are all just a bunch of fascist Republicans who want to scare you liberals!!!
:eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

[salib]

11. I do have to agree just a little bit

This is a distraction from the immediate issue of the election.

[Deja Q]

13. Um, the oil issue is relevant - WE can use it where the repukes cannot

It's as much of an issue as gay marriage is. Bush* is using that to help him...

We can use peak oil to our advantage. Repukes care only about greed and money and are widely known to :loveya: the oil industry.

We have 'em cornered on the oil issue and they can't escape it.

[arcos]

16. Peak oil will affect the WHOLE WORLD...

If Bush gets re-selected it will affect the whole world too, and although a 2nd Bush administration will not make the peak oil matter any better, it is selfish to pretend the election is more important than the future of the human civilization as we know it.

[Deja Q]

12. You do have a small point...

Joblessness, a shrinking economy, pre-emptive war... Except that's the very stuff that'll only get WORSE due to peak oil!

When oil costs more to obtain, the costs come back down on us. From water to food to a Brintey SPears CD to medical care, EVERYTHING in our society is going to skyrocket in price, to levels you can't even dream of.

I'm mindful of the issues you bring up. But peak oil is just round the corner. Maybe it won't happen within this decade, like you think. But maybe it will, like many of us think.

But your happy-go-lucky approach is the WRONG approach either way. We MUST address the issue NOW. We SHOULD have addressed it long ago, even President Carter had made a mention of it in 1980...

But calling some of us die-hard republicans because we're thinking of the future while you're just talking about instant gratification?! Tsk tsk, shame on you.

[ThomWV]

14. Background

Deleted by author.

[BeFree]

17. Ya got that right, finally, TWV

Ya should've deleted your other post too.

Why do ya think G*B invaded Iraq? For Democracy? Ha! We are there for the oil. To get every last drop of the emptying supply of fossil fuel from the largest, easiest to pump underground reserves in the world.

The end of the age of oil is rapidly approaching and you say: "Don't talk about it!" Incredebile!

[arcos]

15. Not only that...

I accept that * is one of the greater dangers FOR THE WHOLE WORLD. But it is selfish to assume that the most important thing in the world right now is to defeat Bush, while peak oil will affect EVERY SINGLE NATION on Earth.

[Old and In the Way]

18. Just the opposite, it's an opportunity to differentiate our future

vision of America.

Kerry is talking about developing a new economy, based on energy indepedence. He's talking about a 20% reduction in oil by 2020, but I think he needs to up this commitment and make it far more aggressive.

We need to frame the debate:

Republicans = National Security/Energy Security = Oil = declining domestic economy = War = Dead End

Democrats = National Security/Energy Security = Alternative/Renewable Energy = Jobs = A Real Future.

This administration has no plan for the future, except to enrich the oil/coal interests that they represent.

[bemildred]

19. Yes.

:thumbsup: