Is it possible that there might be a locked convention ?

[kentuck]

That is, that several candidates have a good proportion of delegates but none have enough to capture the nomination. Do they make a deal to offer the VP position to one or the other in order to commit their delegates? Are the delegates then committed to go to the other candidate?

If there is a locked convention, is it possible to have a "compromise" candidate? Everybody think Al Gore. :) Or is it possible to have such a locked convention in this day and age?

[knight_of_the_star]

1. Oh crap

Considering the luck we've been having with the party over the past two years, it would not surprise me in the least if that happened.

[jfxgillis]

4. Nope

I think you're wrong.

An open convention, presuming it only lasted a few of ballots past the first, would be the BEST POSSIBLE THING that could happen to the Dems:

1. Bush would have $200 million to spend on attack ads disguised as phony "primary" election ads that would be wasted. Nobody to attack!

2. PEOPLE WOULD WATCH. The conventions have become boring, paid political ads. When people watch, they listen. When there is suspense, they care.

3. The obvious compromise candidate, Al Gore, would be the the candidate most threatening to Bush.

What's not to like?

[Yupster]

14. I agree

the networks would go nuts on the coverage and people would actually be talking about politics at their dinnertable.

I don't see it as likely though.

[SoCalDem]

24. They are busily lining up "ethnic entertainment" as we type..

of course a scan of the audience will be lily white :)

[jfxgillis]

2. Yes

See reply to knight of the star, above.

[TahitiNut]

3. Aren't some/most primaries "winner take all"??

Doesn't the Party abide by the primary election results? Doesn't the money follow the primary election results? I doubt there'll be any "smoke-filled rooms".

[arcos]

11. No

I believe in most states there's some sort of proportional representation for all candidates with more than 15% of the vote.

Plus, there are superdelegates: former Presidents, former Vicepresidents, Representatives, Senators, Governors, and other party officials. This accounts for a HUGE part of the total delegates (40%? something like that...). Gephardt has been endorsed by a lot of Representatives, so he has an advantage.

[OKNancy]

17. Actually it is all states

it is the Democratic party rule. Republicans on the other hand have a winner take all system.

[Gman]

5. If no one wins on the first ballot

All delegates are RELEASED from their presidential committment and free to vote for another candidate if he/she so chooses. Then the wheeling and dealing starts.

[ShaneGR]

6. Actually, I think this would be good

A return to the old days where the convention actually MATTERED. Ratings would spiral out of the roof and more people would actually be interested enough to tune in. While there are certainly drawbacks to this, I think the #1 drawback to today's politics is the lack of interesting content. Everything is too scripted.

[dofus]

8. Deadlocked conventions

are probably a complete thing of the past. Apparently, candidates needed two-thirds of the delegates to be nominated, not a simple majority as is the case now. I think the last deadlocked convention (meaning one that required more than one vote) was in 1924.

If it takes us until the convention, a full year from now in August of 2004 to decide on our candidate, we'll probably be hopelessly split and truly stand no chance of evicting W from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

[Dancing_Dave]

7. In Better Times, that happened at almost all the conventions

The constitution of the democratic convention gives us very workable ways to resolve that situation with discussion, compromise, and delegates able to support a different canidate in later rounds of voting. Used to be that political conventions were exiting adventures in democracy where some deep issues were really discussed, and finally a majority would form for a President/Vice President ticket that hadn't already been decided on in advance. Now the conventions have become dull Coronations of what has already been decided in. No real live participating democracy. Not nearly so much public interest in conventions as there used to be either.

Actually, I'm just barely old enough to remember some of those real life conventions in the 1970's. The convention that ended up nominating the underdog Jimmy Carter really got my attention as a kid, and everyone else seemed keenly interested too. Real Democracy was a great adventure, I don't know why we gave it up.

[dofus]

13. Jimmy Carter went into that convention

with his nomination assured. So did every other presidential nominee since about 1924.

In the "good old days" when conventions took many ballots over several days to come up with a nominee, the campaign didn't start three years before the election, unlike these days.

The entire election cycle is essentially nonstop these days, and no, I don't think that's a good thing.

I can't figure out why some people seem to think a deadlocked convention would be good. It's come up several times in the past year or so.

Please explain to me why this would be a good thing.

[ewagner]

20. I think it would be a good thing

There would have to be a lot of horse trading and compromising under extreme pressure. Why is that good? Because if we (as a party) aren't put under extreme pressure to honestly evaluate what is really realy important to us, we WON'T compromise; we'll just take our marbles and go home.

Also this: In a deadlocked convention the candidate which is ultimately chosen (and his/her running mate) would be the result of what I like to call a GRAND BARGAIN. That grand bargain would include promises to embrace positions previously not held in return for support or in the opposite, abandonment of positions in return for support. In either case the party comes out united and stronger.

BTW: My prediction is that this is what Gore is actually looking for.

[jagguy]

9. intesting idea

but it will never happen. The party will see to that. And I don't think that an eleventh hour draft of Gore is likely, it would make an even bigger mockery of a failed primary process.

It will be one of the announced candidates and everyone will smile and hug on the podium at the end. Can't put out 'bad TV' now can we ?

[birdman]

10. Never happen

The lesser candidates have no choice but to drop
out if they don't meet with early success because
it takes so much money to continue and donations begin
to dry up.

Expect Mosely-Braun, Kucinich and probably Gephardt (if he
doesn't win in IA) to be out after NH.

Whoever loses in SC between Lieberman and Edwards will have
to drop at that point.

Kerry, Dean and Sharpton will will probably be all that are left
after Super Tuesday (Sharpton will stay until the convention
in an effort to extort something from the party). The rest of the delegates will gravitate to the person with most votes.

[theboss]

12. Hillary!

A few months ago I explained how I felt the primary season shaped up perfectly for Hillary! to enter the primaries at the eleventh hour, sweep the big northern states and California, and go to an open convention with all the momentum in the world. If she wanted to. I mean, she did the follow the RFK template for getting into the Senate, right?

[Yentatelaventa]

15. Looks like we're having one here in GD

:-)

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

16. Very unlikely

but expect some real wheeling and dealing for any delegates that the "lesser" candidates pick up on the way. If it ends up where neither Kerry or Dean (the two I think will be slugging it out) have enough delegates going in, then it will be fight for the delegates the others have. That's where the VP candidates (Edwards, Graham) may be selected.

An ugly business.

[ewagner]

22. Ugly?

It's American democracy in action my friend! Its the most beautiful thing in the world!

[mlawson]

18. Extremely unlikely.

The power brokers will have us a nominee, probably by March. I fear that person will not be the one I want, however...

:-(

[Cheswick2.0]

19. wouldn't that be exciting!!

How fun would that be? I guess we can hope can't we? It would make this whole tedious mess seem more worth time.

[ewagner]

21. I think deadlock is possible

Because we have nine candidates running, each taking away a portion of the pie from each state.

Further, each candidate seems to have a regional strength which counterbalances the others. for instance

Edwards wins NC, SC, Virginia
Graham wins Florida, Georgia, Bama etc
Dean wins NH, VT, Conn
NY goes up for grabs

anyway you get the picture............

If that pattern persists, then none of the candidates will come into the convention with a pure majority on the first ballot. And as wisely noted in a post above, after the first ballot, all bets are off.

[drdigi420]

23. it will only be locked

if it doesn't have at least 5 sentences

:)