Kevin Bacon, what is wrong with this logic?

[TruthIsAll]

In todays DU poll, I ask how many DUers have heard of former Bush voters not voting for him this time.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1518557

Of the 64 respondents so far, 52 knew of at least oneperson leaving Bush. That's over 80%.

I estimate that 250 are leaving Bush, based on the total distribution and an average of 4 former Bush voters leaving per DUer.
Extrapolating to 40,000 DUers, this means about 160,000 Bush voters are abandoning him, assuming the same average (four per DUer).

This doesn't make sense to me. It seems too high. Any comments?

Where is Kevin Bacon now that we need him?

Let's keep kicking and tracking this poll.

[wryter2000]

1. Sorry I missed your poll

I know of at least 4 people who voted for * who won't do it again. I think I'm up to 5, but I can't remember the fifth one right now. At least one of my 4 will vote for Kerry. I don't know what the others plan to do.

[nostamj]

keep in mind...

there are WAY less than 40,000 active DUers.

that number is cumulative and includes ALL that were subsequently tombstoned... not to mention those that no longer post, etc....

[TruthIsAll]

4. I know, but let's extrapolate 4 per DUer or Non- DUer.

At what point (how many respondents) do we reach the total number leaving Bush? Do we hit the Six Degrees of Separation barrier?

Its the Kevin Bacon phenomenon.

[Dogmudgeon]

2. Why are you asking Kevin Bacon?

If it's any consolation, I know approximately fifteen Bush voters who will be voting for Kerry.

--bkl

[freetobegay]

3. Kevin Bacon

What a hunk!

[Christ was Socialist]

5. I know hundreds leaving bush but not for Kerry

They were roused by dean. but won't vote for kerry due to the war. They feel he can't stand up to fierce pressure. Most are looking at nader or the greens. Nota bene, they are not far left but maybe a notch to the right of kucinich

[freetobegay]

8. oy vey

[BlueEyedSon]

9. well that still cuts bush's numbers

sucks that there is no realistic anti-war candidate....

[ieoeja]

17. If they're only a notch to the right of Kucinich ...

... why did they vote for Bush in 2000?

[West Coast Democrat]

23. So, they were Bush* supporters before the Iraq war...?

or never actually Bush supporters at all?

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

6. In some cases it may be that the "4" overlap between different DU'ers.

If we work at the same office and know the same office mates who have abandoned ship from the USS Shrubco, you will "double count" the abandoners.

[BlueEyedSon]

7. What if we all know the same switchy Bush voter?

[TruthIsAll]

10. Now there are 80 DUers with a 3.5 average leaving Bush

Poll result (80 votes)

None (14 votes, 18%) Vote
1-3 (41 votes, 51%) Vote 41*2=82
4-7 (18 votes, 23%) Vote 5*18=90
8-10 (1 votes, 1%) Vote 1*10=10
11-20 (4 votes, 5%) Vote 15*4=60
over 20 (2 votes, 3%) 2*20 =40

New total 282 leaving Bush
282/80= 3.5 average per respondent.

[Drifter]

11. The fact that you are using ...

data from a poll on the DemocraticUnderground destroys any possibility of extrapolating useful information about the country as a whole.

Cheers
Drifter

[moof]

12. Earth to TruthIsAll, Gore won the last election ...

and most likely in a landslide.

But, 1. Lots of people were not allowed to vote

2. Lots of people that voted on electronic machines never got their vote counted properly.

3. Some of people were brainwashed into thinking * was good for them by a
propaganda machine the likes and extent of which has yet to be realized.

4. There were some people that shut down & continue to shut down & blindly vote for * strictly on the basis that he appears to wear god on his sleeve.

In summary what few votes * got aside from his rich pals was from
these last two groups. If you think that * or any of the other repubs
" won " an election where it was stated that the " race " was close
here is a newsflash for you, it was rigged top to bottom. The polls,
the newscoverage and the " elections ". You do not live in a free country or a democracy. Wake up and smell the coffee but don't fell to terrible about it, it's not like America ever had a real election or was a real democracy.

[TruthIsAll]

26. TruthIsAll to moof: No shit. Tell me something I don't know.

I have been shouting about stolen elections from the day of my first post here and have calculated the probability that BushCo stole the Senate in 2002. That was not the point of this post. I just want to see how many former Bush voters might be deserting the Chimp.

TIA

[tom_paine]

13. There aren't 40,000 DUers

That number includes everyone who ever registered. Trolls who got booted, DUers who got booted and came back under another handle. One-post lurkers...everything.

So, the 160,000 number is skewed. Way too big.

However, it is clear that all but the Hardcore Busheviks support the Emperor* Bunnypants. The pool of Sheeplike Fools and Sleepy-Brained Ignorants is shrinking. The stench of lies is waking up many now.

So, I certainly would expect a 160,000+ swing against Bunnypants.

Not that those people have any reasonable chance of seeing their will expressed.

[BlueEyedSon]

18. You forgot the 20,000 FBI agents

and the 100,000 lurkers!

LOL

[tom_paine]

21. Ha ha

Good one.

:thumbsup: :thumbsup:

[leftofthedial]

14. two thoughts

1. I think the average of 4 per DUer assumption is too high.

2. I think millions of former bushgang supporters are abandoning him.

oh, and a third thought.

(I also don't think #2 will matter in post-Coup America. The fix is in.)

[rucky]

15. I see what you're saying. Here's my theory...

It IS high. That should be encouraging. DU-ers (maybe not 40,000 but the ones who are active enough to read & respond to your poll) are more politically active than yer average bear. We run in different circles where politics are discussed (most people don't discuss religion & politics). We'd ask those questions of people so we're more likely to get those answers. Not to mention that we're actively working to win people over & get whistleass out of there.

It just shows you the power of being politically active. We CAN make a difference - just by not being afraid to say what's on our mind.

[TruthIsAll]

16. Poll result (86 votes)

None (14 votes, 16%)
1-3 (46 votes, 53%)
4-7 (18 votes, 21%)
8-10 (2 votes, 2%)
11-20 (4 votes, 5%)
over 20 (2 votes, 2%)

[the_real_38]

19. Kevin Bacon...

... what is his connection to Bush. Maybe he denuded one of the twins.

[ieoeja]

20. Anecdotes Suck

But I'll give one anyway. Roughly half the people I know who voted for Bush last time have already said they will not vote this time. Only one has said he will vote for Bush. The others haven't been paying much attention, but generally vote Republican in a knee-jerk fashion.

Of the swing voters I personally know who voted for Bush, each and every one has already come out and said that he/she will vote whomever the Democrats nominate.

[loudsue]

22. what's the deal w/ Kevin Bacon??

Did I miss something? What does he have to do with the poll?

:dunce: :blondemoment:
:kick:

[Killarney]

24. I know a handful of people that

voted Bush 2000 that will vote Kerry 2004.

HOWEVER, I also know a handful of people that voted Gore in 2000 and will stay home in 2004. They hate both Bush and Kerry and not for the war, they just hate Kerry because they say he's arrogant, rich, no different from Bush, blah blah. :eyes: These are not political people, just regular people. I'm trying to help them see the light.

[SpaceCatMeetsMars]

25. Kerry has to make the swing voters wanna get loose, foot-loose!

Kick off their Sunday shoes....

ok, sorry about that....

[TruthIsAll]

27. 82% of DUers know at least one sorry Bush voter

Poll result (90 votes)
None (16 votes, 18%)
1-3 (48 votes, 53%)
4-7 (18 votes, 20%)
8-10 (2 votes, 2%)
11-20 (4 votes, 4%)
over 20 (2 votes, 2%)

[TruthIsAll]

28. Poll result (102 votes) 81% know at least 1; 8% at least 10 ex Bushites.

Ratios pretty much the same.

None (19 votes, 19%)
1-3 (56 votes, 55%)
4-7 (19 votes, 19%)
8-10 (2 votes, 2%)
11-20 (4 votes, 4%)
over 20 (2 votes, 2%)

[seabeyond]

29. i didnt answer i have more

just the ones i know of, my husband is not and two friends are not. i know these three voted and will vote next time. and softening up a lot. have 6 months to go

[TruthIsAll]

30. So go vote now. TIA's polls are open late. No goons to shut you out.

TIA

[TruthIsAll]

31. Polls still open

TIA