Criz will win in a plurality landslide --its a lock.

[Perky]

With Garamendi graceful exit If you take a reall look at the math, vecause there are so many in the race I think Cruz is our next Gov.


Take a look at this chart...It breaks down where the no recall votes and the yes recall votes go.... I think this is a mathematical certainty that unless Cruz explodes its already over.

Overall % of No Vote
No recall 45% Bustamante 31.5% 70.0%
Schwarzenegger 5.9% 13.0%
Simon 0.5% 1.0%
McClintock 0.5% 1.0%
Ubberoth 2.3% 5.0%
Camejo 2.3% 5.0%
Huffington 2.3% 5.0%
45% 100%

Overall % of Yes Vote
Yes recall 55% Bustamante 6% 10.0%
Schwarzenegger 22% 40.0%
Simon 14% 25.0%
McClintock 11% 20.0%
Ubberoth 3% 5.0%
Camejo 3% 5.0%
Huffington 3% 5.0%
55% 100%

People who Vote no on the recall are going to overwhelming vote for Bustamante. Arnold will probably finish ssecond of thos who voted against the recall.

For those who vote to reove Gray.. I am saying 10% will vote for Cruz. The Repukes have three candidates running. Simont anc lintock will both have to attack Arnold to keep GOPer out of his hands but they will also have to go after eachother.


End of the Day....They have two many candidates in the race and its impossible for them to win.

Only open question is can Arnold win..I say no only because Cruz has the built in advantage of those who oppose the recount in the first place.

Opine away.

[Cha]

1. I hope you're so right! I want at least one State to be Democratic

and with a Democratic Governor, too! I want this to come out with California the Winner! :kick:


What will the ballot be like? They can vote for recall or not and for whom they want to be Governor at the same time?


And if Bustamante is behind lieman then what kind of person is he?

[diplomats]

2. Did Garamendi drop out?

I've been offline most of the day.

[TSIAS]

3. Yes

See this LBN thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=59058&mesg_id=59058

[Friar]

4. depends on the media

I bet most californian's don't even recognize Bustamante as our Lt. Gov. Everyone knows Ahnold. Davis needs to resign and put an end to this.

[waggawagga]

9. If Davis Resigns the Recall Goes Forward

Turns out CA law anticipates this scenario. The Lt. Gov. becomes Governor until the recall election is held.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. I think even people who can't spell his name will vote for him.

[Perky]

5. Garamendi

Dropped out about3 pm today

[Democat]

6. Where are these number from? The CNN poll?

Can you post a link to where you got those numbers, or is that a guess?

[Terwilliger]

7. Correct the name in your header please

C R U Z

[dansolo]

8. This confirms my suspicions

I thought that a large chunk of the people voting "NO" on the recall would vote for Bustamonte. He is the obvious choice for those who oppose the recall.

[waggawagga]

10. Huh?

I think you're being way too optimistic. If you factor in undecided voters for the recall Davis is almost certainly a goner (if these undecideds split 50/50 the recall wins 60-40, that margin is almost impossible to beat).

As for the election (you are talking about the Time/CNN poll?) Schwarzenegger has 25%, Bustamente has 15%, and 35% are undecided. Everything rides on how this undecided vote splits.

I don't think McClintock and Simon's numbers are going up one bit (that's 16%). Ueberroth could take votes from Schwarzenegger but that's not a given (he could stay at 4%). It's quite easy to imagine how one or more of these candidates will drop out before election day.

And Bustamante...well who knows? I think a big problem he'll have is just name identification. It will be easier for voters to find other names on the ballot. It's certainly not a lock (right now I'd give Schwarzenegger 3-2 odds).

[A-Schwarzenegger]

12. How are the names going

to be listed on the ballot?
Alphabeticle by first name uh?

[SyracuseDemocrat]

13. I really hope that

this is the way it turns out.