So why is the economy improving and more jobs are being created?

[ringmastery]

What did Bush or the republican congress or fed do to cause this or is this just part of the economic cycle and what goes down must eventually come up?

[daa]

1. I will let you know

when I see a full time job with benefits created.

[Aunt Anti-bush]

38. Good point.

I'd love to know where the h*ll these jobs are all at. No one where I live offers any benefits, even though 4 years ago a lot of companies did. Now, if you are lucky enough to find a job making more than minimum wage it is a HUGE accomplishment, even for those with degrees.

[KayLaw]

2. Low interest rates, I guess ( nt )

[ewagner]

4. That seems to be the consensus

from the various DU economic gurus.

Low interest rates seem to be the only thing keeping the economy afloat.

Frodo, 54anickel and Papau have a pretty good handle on things.

[Frodo]

7. Awfully kind words. Thanks!

Of course, Frodo, 54anickle and Papau rarely agree on much of anything. :shrug:

[ewagner]

12. It's the quality of the debate

that makes you guys so valuable!!!!

Thanks for your wisdom.

[WMliberal]

33. Yeah, I can't wait to see

what happens when the Fed raises rates. Just as I'm graduating and entering the job market.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

8. Expect to see a downturn when interest rates are raised

Greenspan is trying to hold this off, but he's already said it is inevitable. I just hope he does it before the election, because otherwise President Kerry will be blamed, I fear.

[Spinzonner]

3. Well, a lot of money is being spent on Defense

so government money is being pumped into the economy. How Keynesian ...

Of course, its being paid for with a credit card which will have to be paid later at higher interest rates.

And, like the unpaid-as-you-go Vietnam war, there's a chance it will breed inflation in the economy.

[madrchsod]

5. service industry gains

jobs are not being created ,they are being moved,retirements,spring and summer jobs and rehires. there are no new factories being built ,etc,etc...yes it`s a cycle thing but if the interest rates go up the economy goes down the drain...

[Frodo]

6. You hit it right on the head. It's the economic cycle doing it's thing.

Presidents have remarkably little to do with the economy. Congress has more impact, but still not all that much barring dramatic action.

Sure, tax cuts and spending increases combined with loose Fed policy will get you some juice going (but at a price some years down the road). But you don't have to believe that Bush or Congress did ANYTHING right to cause this.

Of course, Democrats set themselves up for Republicans to claim credit for it. Doesn't mean they SHOULD get credit for it, but the election issue is swinging pretty far their way.

[Mattforclark]

13. bingo

Whatever the political usefulness or uselessness of the myth that Presidents control the economy, it's still a myth.

[charlie]

20. Not entirely a myth

While a president can't steer the economy with the surety of a horse jockey, he can certainly exacerbate or ameliorate the direction it's heading. Dubya's mistargeted tax cuts, redirection of federal funds into "defense" coffers, driving down America's reputation as a haven for sound investment and innovation, has amplified this downturn from a cold into a full-blown chronic flu.

[Mattforclark]

30. Yes

that's certainly true. By "myth," I just mean the perception that if the economy does good or bad, it is necessarily the President's "fault" or "success."

[Pax Argent]

31. Don't forget foreign policy

9-11, the resulting war in Afghanistan, and the Iraq Attack have had the markets and the economy going up and down like a yo-yo. It bears repeating that Iraq was a war of choice and the logical outcome of the war was that the economy would become depressed as people fretted the run-up to the war and that there would be a "release" within a quarter or two after the war was finished.

This was why the war HAD to be in March of 2003 despite not finding WMDs. This met the dual timetables of giving the US somewhere to put the military being kicked out of Saudi Arabia and setting us up for the depression/recovery cycle referenced above. Massive relative "gains" in the economy and a military victory all rolling into an election year without ever having actually "gained" anything (just loss mitigation with the appropriate spin). Not too bad.

The Bush planners obviously saw 2004 as the "happy ending" year. Iraq should have been complete, they should have had a whole raft of social legistation completed (Medicare, tightening up the FCC, re-upping the Patriot Act, etc.), and then the oil price drop and maybe Osama being defrosted in October and Bang!, Bush and the rethugs maintain control for the forseeable future. Unfortunately the Bush Administration is as incompetent as it is rapacious and short-sighted.

Never underestimate the power of incompetence to drive any endeavor on the rocks. I really don't want to see what they will roll out in 2005 if given the chance.

[rumguy]

25. shit jobs without benefits

The thing is not to let the boy monster pretend that things are all rosy and perfect - this is just another one of his delusions.

See the boy monster doesn't live in reality, he's out of touch with it even worse than his father was.

The country is replete with examples of people losing their good job, one they've had for years, only to find a new shit job without benefits.

Under the boy monster corporations are realinging the work force. Stripping people of benefits and replacing solid jobs with shit temporary ones.

The numbers DO NOT lie. The boy monster and his spinners lie.

Bush is out of touch, he lives in a deluded reality. That is our meme we need to get out there.

[Zorra]

9. Low paying seasonal service jobs in an artificially inflated economy

due to heavy defense spending in an unnecessary war? Yes, that's exactly it. Why even ask this question? Haven't you already figured this out?

Don't make me laugh. Like everything else about the republican agenda, it's phony.

Now Alan Greenspan is saying that if Bush's tax cuts are not rolled back, and the deficit is brought under control, there will be long term damage to the economy.

[charlie]

10. What?! Really?

Greenspan's saying that the cuts should be rolled back? After he gave Dubya the political juice to go ahead with them? WTF?!

[Zorra]

29. Apparently, he is advocating cutting future Social Security Benefits

rather than raise taxes. I may have misunderstood the article I read yesterday, but now I can't find it for some reason.

Here's a similar article, but not nearly as detailed:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3691205.stm

[charlie]

36. Oh yeah

I know about his advocacy for trimming/delaying SS benefits, 20 years after his push to raise payroll taxes to avoid this nonsense and replenish the treasury so as to drive down the deficit. It's a wretchedly cynical bait and switch maneuver to get the middle class to fund the excesses of the moneyed class (Black Tuesday, S&L scandals, Enron). But if he makes a peep about Dubya's tax cuts, which had precious little chance of being enacted without his OK, I'll fucking explode.

[Failure]

11. these are low-wage burger flipper jobs with no benefits...

and many many seasonal jobs...

[deacon]

14. college summer jobs, hotels and restuarants hiring

This economy is artificial and thats why the market is dipping. It has been running on borrowed money stimulated by the low interest rates. People are borrowed out now and with higher interest rates on the horizon, businesses can expect in a drop in spending.

[DoYouEverWonder]

15. From my POV has a small business owner

this is the best spring we've had since Bu$h stole office.

My husband and I run a sizable screen printing operation and I therefore qualify as a manufacturer. My main market is tourist related venues, zoos, museums, nature centers etc.

In 2001, after the selection, people were nervous. They were starting to cut back and be more careful with spending. Bu$h and Cheney were talking up recession and so things slowed down.

Then 9-11 hit. Of course, in my industry the orders just dried up. Then Bu$h was off to war in Afghanistan and there were orange alerts on far to regular a basis.

Then of course, last year was the pits cause no one knew whether or not Bu$h was about to start Armageddon.

So here we are a year later. We've managed not to blow up the world, at least not yet. No one has gone anywhere or spent much money in the last two years, so folks are ready to get out, relax and buy stuff. It also helps that Tommy has stop his Chicken Little routine for the election. And speaking of the election and the military effort, the government is pumping tons of money into the economy at the moment.

Of course, this will all come crashing down after Nov, especially if we have another attack or Bu$h finds some excuse to get himself reselected. Even if Kerry wins and takes office in Jan., the real damage this cabal has done to this country will be coming to light and I expect the economy will go bad again. It will just be a matter of degree.

[Jane Austin]

16. And from mine as a small business owner

this is the worst spring we've had in ten years.

Supposedly Texas is in a big recovery, yet forclosures are at an all time high.

Every week I see another empty storefront and highter gas prices.

I spoke with someone yesterday whose rental properties are empty.

Things just aren't that good on an anectodal basis.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

26. Yep they aren't. I'm in Texas, too.

[BeatleBoot]

17. We're still out 2 million jobs.

And if you believe there is a recovery, then you don't live in Michigan.

[Ardee]

39. its 3 million

jobs....

[Hubert Flottz]

18. Jobs are still being lost in this state by the hundreds!

They are cheating on the numbers like they did for reagan! Counting people who run out of unemployment benefits! Counting Jobs created in India and China too if the truth be known!

[against all enemies]

19. See what Krugman says tomorrow.

[Redleg]

21. Look at the kinds of jobs being "created."

Most have been relatively low-skill, low-pay service sector jobs. Don't take my word for it- do some research. The media doesn't talk about the qualitative aspects of these jobs- they just talk about numbers of jobs.

[rumguy]

22. the thing is most of them are shit jobs without benefits

the numbers don't lie...

this is part of the corporatization of American life...

[rumguy]

24. This is how we win this issue...

shit jobs without benefits.

The thing is not to let the boy monster pretend that things are all rosy and perfect - this is just another one of his delusions.

See the boy monster doesn't live in reality, he's out of touch with it even worse than his father was.

The country is replete with examples of people losing their good job, one they've had for years, only to find a new shit job without benefits.

Under the boy monster corporations are realinging the work force. Stripping people of benefits and replacing solid jobs with shit temporary ones.

The numbers DO NOT lie. The boy monster and his spinners lie.

[drfemoe]

23. economy improving? jobs created?

LOL .. good explanation from fellow DUer >>

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x519635#519706

I think the priming of the pump is the key factor--but not sure if most
voters understand this.

The Bush admin. has used every stimulus in the book, in huge volumes--deficit spending, tax cuts, low interest rates, record defense spending--yet the new jobs #s are lower than last month, and not large.

Many also don't understand that deficits mean that (a) they will pay higher interest rates soon and (b) borrowing now means you have to pay back more later, so you will have less to invest in more productive ventures in the future. I wish Kerry could explain this by reference to household analogies--"if you borrow against your home equity, you can enjoy a nice vacation now--so no wonder some of you think things are going well now--you're on vacation!--but you have to pay that money back", etc.

[Karenina]

27. Today , no film at 11

another drive-by shooting was reported...

[Pepperbelly]

28. the numbers are cooked ...

It is simply not possible in an economy so dependent upon petro-energy to absorb the hits of the last few years by the oil companies ... e.g. a 50%+ hike in rates, and show both growth and negligible inflation.

So where is the bite taking place?

In our pocketbooks for sure but in the economic system, it has to be absorbed and discounted and it is not. It is a ticking time bomb.

[mourningdove92]

32. Like many of the posts here indicate, the so called jobs

are more a figment than reality. Keep in mind that everyday, another plant, corporation, etc, lays off more employees. The jobs currently being "created" are mostly minimum wage, no benefit jobs.

I am responsible for the hiring in my department (I live in Texas), and let me tell you, people are crawling out of the woodwork looking for jobs. They call me at work, they call me at home, they page me, THEY ARE DRIVING ME CRAZY.

When I first took this position 3 years ago, I was having a really hard time filling open positions, now I am having a hard time wading through the job seekers to get to my office.

The thing is, my heart goes out to them. I know how rough it is looking for work.

[BillZBubb]

34. Deficit spending, low rates, low dollar, and cooked numbers.

Bush* is spending 5% of GDP in borrowed money. The economy is growing at 4%. You do the math. When the borrowed money gets harder to come by, the economy will fall flat.

Greenspin has kept interest rates at historic lows to stimulate borrowing. It has temporarily boosted several sectors. When the inflation that this will create finally arrives, rates go way up, and the economy falls flat.

The Repugs have done everything they could to significantly lower the dollar this year. That helps sell US goods abroad. They cost less to overseas buyers. Once the election has passed, foreign governments will get very angry if the dollar stays so low (their exports to the US are down). Once the dollar rises again, the economy loses more.

BushCo have been fudging the numbers since day one. They are using Enron economics to make things sound great on paper. Things aren't quite as good as they claim. Too many people are underemployed or in temp jobs, not high paying sustainable jobs.

[magnolia]

35. Let's not forget.....

...that in 2000 the economy was great, there were surpluses and jobs and Gore still didn't win by enough to put him in the WH. Let's not wish for a bad economy or joblessness for so many people. Let's hope the truth comes out so the public will turn on Bush the way they turned on Clinton. Once that happens, it won't matter how good things are going...he'll lose.

[charlie]

37. Who's wishing for a bad economy?

We're sussing out the reality of this lying clown posse's declaration of a recovery.

[DaveSZ]

40. Greenspan

Greenspan is *'s stooge at the Fed.

He's a Reaganite to the core.