MSNBC: "Iraq drowns out good news for Bush" (625,000 jobs in 2 months)

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5015227/

"But not only have Bush’s overall approval ratings fallen, Americans’ rating of his handling the economy is in the dumps. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll last week found six in 10 Americans say the economy is heading for trouble."

"Ruy Teixeira of the Center for American Progress, a liberal policy research group, said Americans by-and-large have yet to feel the rising economic tide, despite the economy’s 4.9 percent growth over the past four quarters and the creation of 625,000 jobs in the past two months.

“People don’t judge the economy on the basis of monthly releases of government statistics. They judge it based on how they’re feeling it on the ground,” he said."

So now it's 625,000 jobs in two months????

[rumguy]

1. no one likes shit jobs without benefits

[NMDemDist2]

2. which only leaves him 2.2 million jobs in the hole n/t

[trumad]

3. Inflation Baby...Here it comes...

[Jacobin]

11. Oh, and HIGH interest rates

double whammy on the way.

[kymar57]

13. True.

One of the only weapons they have against inflation is lowering interest rates(as near as this economic idiot can figure).Seeing as how the prime is at 1%, how much lower can they go?

If you figure in the runaway gouging the oil companies are engaged in(higher fuel prices affect every aspect of the economic food-chain)inflation will be a factor in Nov.

[tritsofme]

21. One of the only weapons of the Fed against inflation is increasing rates,

and the prime rate is not 1%, the FFR is at 1%

[kymar57]

31. Absolutely correct

My Apologies for the waste of bandwidth.Read the article several hrs ago and my mind failed to grasp the difference between "raise" and "lower". I think I'll go register to vote repug now. thanks

:dunce: :dunce:

[tritsofme]

6. Its actually 1.486 million.

I only point that out because you chose an arbitrary number of 2.2 million.

[NMDemDist2]

9. i thought he had lost close to 3 million jobs so far?

but heck I didn't research it so you may be right :shrug:

[tritsofme]

19. He bottomed out at -2.6 million in July 2003...

Since then there has been a gain of 1.1 million jobs.

And as of right now he's still 1.486 million in the red.

[NMDemDist2]

20. when i did the math on the statistics Birth mark posted i got

2.7 for the year--- is he even then?

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Series Id: CEU0000000001
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Super Sector: Total nonfarm
Industry: Total nonfarm
Data Type: ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS
>>>>>Jan>>>>>Feb>>>Mar>>>>>>>Apr
2004 128190 128786 129820(p) 130929(p)

[tritsofme]

22. You're looking at non-seasonally adjusted numbers,

and getting mixed up.

Go here:
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ce

And choose the tables for:
Total Nonfarm Employment - Seasonally Adjusted

[NMDemDist2]

28. thanks i am easily confused hehehehehe n/t

[Coventina]

4. WTF? Whoever wrote the article has fucked up priorities

Even IF these were high quality jobs created (and I'll bet they're NOT) are we supposed to think that Bush is a great prez, when HE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ATROCITIES BEING COMMITTED IN OUR NAME?????

KEEP YOUR DAMN JOBS!!!!
GIVE ME MY COUNTRY'S REPUTATION BACK YOU SACK OF SHIT!!!!!!

[fearnobush]

5. Labor Dept likely cooked the books.

Plus Gas prices averaging $2.00 + dollars will kill a positive view of the economy any day over new Wal-Mart jobs with no bennies.

[BabsSong]

7. clap,. clap, clap

bravo MSNBC---you apparently got the memo to start spreading that goddamn "happy news" and lay off of all that damning stuff. I heard you today try to go back to "happy news" out of Iraq---------what would that be??...perhaps, that the bride and groom are dead but we saved the wedding presents?????????

[Birthmark]

8. OMG! This is priceless! LOL

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Series Id: CEU0000000001
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Super Sector: Total nonfarm
Industry: Total nonfarm
Data Type: ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS
>>>>>Jan>>>>>Feb>>>Mar>>>>>>>Apr
2004 128190 128786 129820(p) 130929(p)

************

Now, if I'm reading this right, 1.109 MILLION jobs were created in APRIL ALONE! That appears to be the claim anyway. Oh, my! I just...can't...stop...laughing! Bwahahahahaha! 1.1 million!!!! ROFLMAO (really, I was!)

Oh, that little (p) means "provisional"...I expect that to be adjusted downard quite a bit...eventually.

[NMDemDist2]

12. interesting, too bad i had to lay off 2.5 people this month n/t

[tritsofme]

15. What exactly do you contest?

That is the number of non-seasonally adjusted jobs created in April. That would be fairly consistent for the number of non-seasonally adjusted jobs created in April throughout the 90s.

The figure of 288,000 is the number of jobs expected to last more than 12 months.

If anything, I would expect it to be revised upward, as March was.

[Birthmark]

26. Well, there's this:

More from the BLS on the months in question:

Year>>>>Mar>>>>>Apr>>>>>>>Increase
1995 - 115972 116803 .....+731,000
1996 - 118056 118890 .....+766,000
1997 - 121007 121979 .....+972,000
1998 - 124121 125159 .....+1,078,000
1999 - 127158 128305 .....+1,247,000
2000 - 130526 131525 .....+999,000
2001 - 131690 132094 .....+404,000
2002 - 129672 130257 .....+585,000
2003 - 129148 129781 .....+633,000
2004 - 129820 130929 .....+1,109,000

*****

As you can see, the number of new jobs claimed for April 2004 has been eclipsed just once since 1995. That was during the Clinton boom of the 90s. The evidence that things were going very well was everywhere. It was really hard not to find a job, but to find someone who was actually out of work. There also wasn't a dramatic increase in fuel prices then, either. I submit that the current circumstances are far, far different and that the evidence that that many jobs were created is non-existent.

[tritsofme]

30. The # of seasonally adjusted jobs created in April of '98 and '99

is basically consistant with the number of seasonally adjusted jobs added in April of this year, so it would make sense that the non-seasonally adjusted number is in the same range for those years.

All you offer is your own observations.

[Birthmark]

33. Not to put too fine a point on it, but...

...isn't all they're offering their own opinions? I mean, there is that nasty (p) after those numbers. ;)

[tritsofme]

34. I suppose we'll find out in a few months

when those little (p)'s go away.

But I make the assumption that if the numbers are revised, it will be in an upward direction. But my opinion on that point is just as good as yours.

[Birthmark]

35. I won't disagree.

Neither of us, or the BLS for that matter, know what the facts on the ground are. Time will tell. However, let me say one more time that I don't know anyone who has been hired lately here in FL. Those that I do know that have gotten jobs over the last year or so have without exception gotten lower paying jobs than they previously held. So, I'm very skeptical of near miracle numbers that don't yield observable results.

But that's just me.

[Jacobin]

10. My my. Murkins figured out that gargantuan deficits spell trouble

down the road!!

This is good news.

Very good news.

[The_Casual_Observer]

14. I would like to ask the person who wrote that "piece"

what their intentions and purpose was. It isn't a news piece and it isn't an opinion/editorial piece either. It appears to be a kind of story that is supposed to "wake you up" to the "real facts", the facts being that bush is doing a great job, but you just might not realize it and we are here to give you a few reasons why. These stories are written in a folksy easy going style so that you might just get them in your head and repeat the gist of them to your friends while engaged in a casual conversation.

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

29. It's becoming a "trend," and it's gotta be coming from Bush's "handlers"..

I posted something similar a few nights ago in reaction to the Dennis Miller show and his whining about how "great" the economy is and how he can't fathom why "Bush isn't getting credit." He then wheeled out the same government-sanctioned job statistics that everyone else is using. Tonight he said that we have to seriously consider putting "time limits" on things like the 9-11 Commission because "some security guard has been on the job for three weeks and he has a plane flying into his building and he hasn't been trained in what to do." He's doing a "Sean Hannity"...let's just DROP every subject that has even an ounce of negativity toward Bush, because if you don't he won't get re-elected.

The introductory paragraphs from the MSNBC article above (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5015227/):

"The U.S. economy’s solid rebound should be a campaign plus for President Bush but the good news is being drowned out by the drumbeat of scandal from Iraq, analysts say.

Bush’s approval ratings have hit the lowest levels of his presidency despite a spate of economic data showing robust growth and a sharp increase in job creation, factors that would normally play to an incumbent president’s benefit.

The rosy economic news has had to share billing with events half-a-world away in Iraq that are eroding the president’s standing less than six months before he faces re-election, even though many voters say the economy is their top concern."

END OF QUOTES

So the economy is "solid, a campaign plus, good news, robust, sharp, and rosy."

And the average man and woman who has taken the temp / low-paying / no benefits job just isn't in the mood to send a thank-you note to the White House.

And the White House doesn't understand how they can be so ungrateful when they have a frigging JOB, which they OWE to the "stimulus" of the Bush tax cuts...as Bush himself has told us many, many, many times.

[stepnw1f]

16. Anyone See The Poll Being Done At MSNBC?

On the right collumn half way down this article, the poll asks you who you'd vote for right now. Guess what? 66% for Kerry!!!!! over 100,000 voted

[robbedvoter]

23. Here's a fun rebuttal from Murdoch's paper

WHAT ARE THEY SMOKING AT THE LABOR DEPT.?

By JOHN CRUDELE
-http://www.nypost.com/business/23936.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 Email  Archives
 Print  ReprintMay 11, 2004 -- DON'T get too excited about all those new jobs that were supposed to have been created in April.

I'm not going to waste a lot of my precious space on this, but the bottom line is that most of the 288,000 jobs that the Labor Department says were created last month may not really exist.

They could be figments of statisticians' optimism.

Anyone who plodded through my column last Thursday knows I predicted that job growth in April would be better than the 160,000 to 170,000 jobs that the "pros" were anticipating.

But I also said, quite emphatically I hope, that the stronger growth would be an illusion - the result of the Labor Department's computers making happy predictions about seasonal job creation that could neither be verified nor justified.

I'll explain one aspect.

Back in the March employment report, the government added 153,000 positions to its revised total of 337,000 new jobs because it thought (but couldn't prove) loads of new companies were being created in this economy.

more...

[tritsofme]

27. No one ever wants to concede 480,000 jobs in January

when they post this article.

Because 321,000 was subtracted using the net birth/death model in January.

Also the current benchmark for the model has been in use for over a year. It always seems like sour grapes to me, this is an opinion piece, and I don't put much credence into his assertions.

[Gloria]

17. Rep. Marcy Kaptur was on Lou Dobbs tonight debating a jerky

Republican (Kiment?? sp?) They were talking about the trade imbalance, but Marcy got around to jobs. She mentioned something about 200,000 jobs but that most of them were temporary with no benefits, etc.

I think she was just using some previous data as an example of the smoke and mirrors crap that goes on, since Kiment was trying to weasel out of the huge US trade deficit by saying that N. Carolina, and a few other states had a "trade deficit." Dobbs went ballistic on the guy....

[kymar57]

18. # Not showing up yet

for what it's worth I've been told my job will disappear 09/05:toast: (hell I drink to everything)

[amber dog democrat]

24. The "good news" may be over for a while.

Chickens are coming home to roost.

[2cents]

25. Gives credence...

...to Kerry's, seemingly overoptimistic, claim of creating 10 million jobs in his term.

[DieboldMustDie]

32. More than 11 million jobs were created...

during Clinton's second term, so apparently it's possible. ;)

[Eric J in MN]

36. Nobody wanted to sign their names to that article

Nobody wanted to sign their names to that article.

It's like:

OK, I'll write a story about how wonderful the economy is, but NO WAY will I sign me name to it.