When we leave Iraq, what's to stop Iran from gobbling it up?

[jpgray]

This is not an argument for remaining, but a general question. I don't pretend to any special geopolitical knowledge, but it seems to me that Iran would profit immensely from annexing the Shia parts of Iraq, including most of the valuable oil fields. Is this possible? Is this likely?

[Mountainman]

1. I don't really give a damn. Let them have it.

We need to let the United Nations and other world leaders in on this. We fucked up that part of the world enough. We need to get the hell out of the Mid East.

[rumguy]

2. I don't know, but it's a good question

I'd like to hear someone like Jaun Cole answer this question.

[oblivious]

3. Imagine Turkey looking at northern Iraq.

I guess they would never accept an independent Kurdish-dominated state.

[RafterMan]

4. Uhhh

What stopped Bush from gobbling it up?

Don't get hung too up on the "shiite" business. There are very few monoliths. Iran could get clever (and they are clever) and sponsor a Sunni terror front to spook the Iraqi shiites into accepting another liberation, but then they would have to hold the territory adjacent to equally clever Saudis. Syria might even take a hand.

It would be a mess if they tried, but I don't think they could hold it.

[jpgray]

5. Well, the Iraqi Ayatollah is currently living in Iran right now

There are a lot of old ties that go back and forth there.

[RafterMan]

6. Which one, and who is he staying with?

The Iranian clergy are far from united in their support for the Iranian government.

Also, there are a lot of old enmities there, too.

[sandnsea]

7. Funny you should ask

A Dawa Party member was bombed today. Another was bombed or killed a few weeks ago. Here's a little bit on the Dawa Party and the whole thing is totally confusing to me. Iran is definitely influencing the goings-on in Iraq, I have no idea who all the players are. And does anybody remember that holiday a few weeks ago? The border between Iran and Iraq is open, at least at some points. And now Chalabi and that whole Iran thing, and Iran reporting US planting WMD. WTF is really going on?

The Dawa Party was started by Sadr, the father. Here's what was written last year.
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/world/6002678.htm

Islamic Dawa Party is an old Shi'a Islamic organization. Now based in Tehran, the group supports the establishment of an Islamic state in Iraq.

http://www.iraqinews.com/party_islamic_daawa_party.shtml

[Jose Diablo]

8. Without an army

We can expect part of Iraq to be annexed by Iran, another part annexed by Turkey and the remaining annexed by Syria, maybe Jordan. Nature hates a vacuum. There are no Iraqi 'institutions' left except the religious institutions. All the other institutions that made Iraq a separate country have been destroyed.

Iraq as a distinct country will be history shortly after the troops come home and the Iraq civil war is reality. The other countries will need to annex parts of Iraq to prevent the civil unrest from spreading into their territories.

Think of it as buzzards feeding on a dead carcass and absorbing the flesh of a dead animal as their own.

[dbt]

9. Depleted Uranium?

Works for me!

:evilgrin:
dbt

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. Invasion from Iran would trigger a true international coalition

all the other Gulf states would behave the same way they did when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, and fear for their own independence. The UN would OK retaliation against Iran, and the US, with token backup from others such as the UK and Saudi Arabia, would devastate Iran.

It isn't going to happen.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

11. Carriers in the Gulf.

[neebob]

12. Who says we're leaving?

I don't believe we are, ever - regardless of who's president.

[opihimoimoi]

14. Once Iraq learns to use Logic, Reason, and Sanity in her self governance

she will flourish as a Mega City and a Mega Nation. The Fanatics need to be subdued and eliminated altogether.

[leftofthedial]

13. part of it probably naturally belongs to them anyway

maybe the silver lining in the bushgang/PNAC cloud in Iraq is that it is so fucked up that no one will want it when we leave.

leaving a US carrier group in the Gulf would probably discourage Iran from doing anything overt, but the shia in the south and the kurds in the north might beamenable to strong iranian influence.

[Jacobin]

15. Obviously, the whole region will be in play

Which is why it was insane to meddle with the stasis that existed.

[librechik]

16. Chalabi!

[bemildred]

17. Iraqis? nt

[Yupster]

18. Twenty million Iraqis

and na Iranian population which would love to kick out their theocratic governmentwhile it's bogged down in Baghdad.

You think Iraqis will calmly allow a Iranian occupation?

You think the Iranian military would be able to occupy Iraq any better than we could? Half as well as we have?

[killbotfactory]

19. They won't have to gobble it up..

They can just use their people to set up a puppet gov't that's pro-Iran.

[Malikshah]

20. Over a thousand years of cultural competition

and development.

Too often folks ignore the history of this region (both pre- and post-rise of Islam) as well as the diversity within the region.

It ain't gonna happen. End of story.

[HEyHEY]

21. fear of US intervention