California belongs to Kerry--Field poll: Kerry has double-digit lead

[DemMother]

An antidote to that idiotic ARG poll that showed Bush one point behind. W. can forget coming to visit us this election--unless he wants to throw more of his millions away.

Kerry leads 51 to 39 with Nader; 55 to 40 without. And, as the DailyKos points out--the Field Poll is never wrong.

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2114.pdf

http://dailykos.com/

[Doosh]

1. I love Cali!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gore won Cali by around 10-12, I don't feel like looking up the exact #.....

looks like there is no "Ahnuld bump" for Bush, California is safe with Nader, a route without him.

Now if my own damn state could just follow there lead!!!

[prodigal_green]

2. may I point out re: Catholics

Catholics support Kerry 61% to 31%. I know this isn't the focus of this thread, but it has come up so many times on DU. The Bishops are too busy looking up the robes of little boys to know what their flock is up to. We're voting for Kerry whether you (Bishops) like it or not.

[Straight Shooter]

3. Unfortunately, his lead is that of being the non-bush candidate

From dailykos:

<snip>

"And yes, people are more motivated to vote against Bush than for Kerry:

Bush Voters
For Candidate: 71
Against Opponent: 25

Kerry Voters

For Candidate: 33
Against Opponent: 65"

<snip>


Kerry needs to do something, and not wait until the last inning, either, to get voters more enthusiastic about voting for him, and not just against bush.

[DemMother]

4. just a few points--

Part of that result is because an election with an incumbent candidate is a referendum--first and foremost--on that candidate. Do we want to stay with the status quo? That is the first judgment people make--and that's why incumbents have an advantage in any election--it's hard to make a change. People are deciding right now--do they want to throw the bum out. Fortunately in my state they do.

Second, Kerry's message is being buried by all the negative news about Bush and Iraq, and now about W's failed war on terrorism.

Third, Kerry said some very strong things recently about Bush and terrorism, which I think is a smart move. It's one of the few areas where Bush holds a slight lead and that's shrinking every day. If Kerry can convince people that Bush won't protect them any better--and in fact is failing, then I think the Senator's lead will grow and that people will see him as a positive alternative.

[AP]

7. I can't imagine another candidate who could do better by that measure.

Any likely candidate whom people would vote for because of who he or she is (rather than who he or she isn't) would probably encourage a lot of people to vote for Bush because Bush isn't that Democrat.

Like, say, HRC were running. OK. Lots of Democrats might vote for her because of who she is, but a lot of other voters would vote for Bush because he isn't HRC.

Also, it's way to early for people to making the decision to vote for Kerry based on who he is. It's early summer. They haven't been introduced yet.

They'll get to like him and his VP nominee as the summer progresses. There's nothing unlikable about Kerry. He's just going to get more and more support as you learn his story.

[blm]

9. Yeah, Kerry has never done anything worthwhile for voters.

It's just not enough that he has the best environmental record and that he has exposed more government corruption than any lawmaker in modern history and helped to end 3 wars. What a big yawn.

[jobycom]

11. Bush got elected by being the "not" candidate

He wasn't Clinton, he wasn't Gore, and that was all those who voted for him looked for. After 9-11 he did the bare minimum of what a president should do, so he got support from a terrified nation. His only real actions were tax cuts and Iraq, and those are backfiring on him now. He's losing because people are finally judging him on what he's doing.

Kerry is doing a lot, he's laying out strong economic and environmental policy, he's challenging Bush on energy, and he's speaking out about the invasion as much as he can without making himself the focus instead of Bush's failures. Why criticize him for success just because people don't fully grasp why he's successful? Knowing when to shut up is important. Ask Dean.

[BrotherBuzz]

5. The down side is....

I don't get to watch any Kerry TV commercials in California. Everyone talks about them but I can only guess what they are like. Mmmm, double-digets!

[jackstraw45]

6. Commercisla are ALL on his website

http://www.johnkerry.com/videos/

[BrotherBuzz]

13. Cool! Thanks...

I need to go up to the library and watch because my dinosaur computer and dial-up thingy doesn't support it. "I Like to watch" - Chance the Gardner (Peter Sellers) - Being There (1979)

[jobycom]

12. Same in Texas, for similar but opposite reasons. nt.

[proud patriot]

8. Maybe I should drive around in other States

:think:

[BrotherBuzz]

10. It wouldn't hurt...

to drive out to the Central Valley with your car and shore up support. I understand some republicans can actually read! (proud patriot's car - voted favorite to get stuck behind in traffic!)

[DrWeird]

14. Wasn't the Bush team sure they were going to win Cal?

It seems like they were bragging about it a few weeks ago, after they spent a shitload of money on the state.