New Zogby Battleground States Poll w/ Colorful Red & Blue Map

[Beloved Citizen]

Zogby shows Kerry leading in 11 of the identified Battleground States, with an overall lead of 296 to 242.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html

[bluestateguy]

1. Kerry is getting Nadered in New Mexico

Anyone who votes for Nader in a swing state is not serious about evicting Bush from the White House.

[PretzelWarrior]

2. this orta be fun....lots of close races including my state.

we will see far far more than our share of Political Ads.

So far, the most consistently entertaining for me are the ones by medifund.org I like their blistering indictment of Bush/Cheney/Halliburton/Iraq connection.

I will predict that Missouri swings to Kerry. I'm from there, and I think enough people got "ripped off" on the deal they thought they were getting that they will trade in with buyer's remorse.

[doni_georgia]

3. Why the hell did they have * next to Kerry's lead saying

they were within th emargin of error - even on ones that were WELL over the 2.5-3.4 margins of error? Looks good. Would like to see some of the other states that they aren't considering battlegrounds, which I believe will be.

[dsc]

11. The lead has to be twice the margin of error

not just over it. For example. Kerry 50, Bush 42, Nader 3, MOE 4 is actually within the MOE since, in theory, Kerry could be as low as 46 and Bush could be as high as 46.

[aquart]

4. WTF is going on in New Mexico?

It's Bush's only pickup state so far.

PS, I kept saying Nevada shouldn't be counted as red. Bush flipped them the bird almost immediately, lying about the nuclear waste.

[Poiuyt]

5. I'm a little worried about Ohio

With all their unemployment, they should be wanting a change.

I say if we can win Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, everything else will fall into place.

[Blue-Jay]

6. Don't worry.

We will win Ohio. Bookmark this page, because I guaran-fucking-tee it.

[PretzelWarrior]

9. me too. I'm a windows OS hacker and I promised Kerry I'd deliver

Ohio. I'm a man of my word. What's really great about it is when the really Republican suburbs of Cincinatti vote in droves for Ralph Nader. It will be magic.

[NavajoRug]

7. Your scenario is accurate, but . . .

. . . there's an odd look to some of these polls this year. I've been feeling for some time that Pennsylvania and Ohio are going to be split between the two candidates (though I don't know which is which). We should be prepared to deal with the reality that we are not going to win more than two of those three (Florida, Ohio, and PA).

[Blue-Jay]

13. Repeat after me:

Ohio belongs to Kerry. It's his to lose.

PA will also go blue. Florida? Who knows? Voter-purging is happening, so it's still in play.

[NavajoRug]

14. Florida may be the one of those three . . .

. . . that is the most likely to go GOP. I don't say this lightly, but every poll in 2002 showed Jeb Bush in a tight race, and yet he won by a large margin.

I've said for months that if we are going to win in November, we have to be prepared to do it without Florida, and with New Mexico in the GOP column. We have a good chance of picking up New Hampshire, though. And I'll take your word for it in Ohio, too.

[Renew Deal]

12. I am not as worried, I just don't get it.

How did Ohio swing against Kerry like 10 points while everything else swung for him?

[GOPBasher]

8. Things still look good.

I hope Florida, Ohio and Missouri swing to Kerry, plus New Hampshire and Nevada, which probably will.

[No2W2004]

10. WTF is with Illinois?

Solidly Democratic, yet is undecided in the poll.

[BurtWorm]

15. Illinois is not in the poll. WTF is with AR, MO and TN!?

(This is a poll only of battleground states.)

Why are these states so solidly for Bush? What the fuck has Bush done for Arkansas, in particular, lately? Seriously!

[JPJones]

16. MO is 1 pt for B* nt

[NewYorkerfromMass]

21. Which makes me think Gephardt is a good VP choice

although Kerry just said geographics is not a consideration.

[globalcitizen]

17. can I chime in here?

Do you think Wes Clark could swing Arkansas and Tennessee into the blue zone if he were the VP candidate?

Also, I think with Rendell in PA and Richardson in NM, Kerry should win these states -- the governor makes a huge difference (see Florida).

[PretzelWarrior]

18. can we do like Iraq and have two VP's? Edwards and Richardson

cool

[KittyWampus]

19. I Only Clicked On Your Thread To See The "Colorful Map"!

can't resist colorful maps :D

[wiggs]

20. Poll methods

Forgive my ignorance...This is an online poll. So I believe the margin of error relates to what the accuracy is for the group being polled. In this case, I believe the group being polled is not citizens (randomly polled), registered voters, or even likely voters. Did anyone read the methodology to see what group is being sampled in an online poll (sorry, not me...too much going on tonight)?

If it's not "likely voters" I'd have to think that worrying about fractions of a percentage point doesn't matter. Trends matter though. And it's always good to be leading in a poll no matter the group sampled.

thanks