The End of the Affair?
Israel and Turkey head for divorce.
By Ilan Berman
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Since their start in the early 1990s, the military and defense ties between Ankara and Jerusalem have evolved into one of the Middle East's most important geopolitical alliances. But now, that strategic partnership has begun showing signs of serious strain. Angered by Israel's recent offensive against the Hamas terrorist organization, eager to boost ties with Europe and new regional allies, and responding to the demands of its core Islamist constituency, the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to have begun a unilateral rollback of strategic cooperation with Jerusalem.
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Just months after its conclusion,
the future of a long-awaited accord to bring Turkish water to Israel is in question. Disputes over the projected route of the pipeline have created friction between the two countries, and rumors now abound that Turkey's ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) has cancelled the arrangement outright — dealing a major blow to Israel's already-strained hydrological resources, which would have received 15 million cubic meters of water annually from Turkey's Manavgat River under the agreement.
At the same time, Ankara is said to have instituted a rollback of military and defense contacts with Jerusalem, including a freeze on Israeli participation in tenders for the purchase of helicopters, remote piloted aircraft and tanks — all ostensibly as part of a new drive for domestic military manufacturing.
These moves have been mirrored on the diplomatic front. In late May, in yet another indication of the new tenor of ties between the two countries, the Turkish government signaled that it might temporarily recall its ambassador for consultations — a threat it has since followed through on. Prime Minister Erdogan, meanwhile, has publicly snubbed Israel, rejecting a formal invitation to visit the Jewish state in recent meetings with Israeli Infrastructure Minister Joseph Paritzky, and even going so far as equating Israel's actions in Palestinian-controlled Rafah to "state terrorism."
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Israeli policymakers, dazed by the rapid turnaround in the strategic partnership, are now scrambling to mend fences. But the Israeli government's ability to alter this trend is limited; the health of Israeli-Turkish ties remains largely dependent on the political priorities and foreign-policy trajectory of the AKP itself. And, at least for now, their future is uncertain, as Turkey continues to drift away from its traditional role of an independent, pro-Western partner in the Middle East.
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/berman200406210826.asp