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Check out the Kerry trend - he's on track to 54%

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-08-04 10:31 AM
Original message
Check out the Kerry trend - he's on track to 54%
Adjust the Kerry numbers for the estimated final percentages.
Assume 70% of undecided/Nader voters go to Kerry.				
Historically, the Challenger gets 60-80% of the undecided
vote.		
AdjK = Kerry +.70*(100-Kerry-Bush)						

July polls:
Poll Kerry Bush 
NBC 54 43
ARG 49 45
CBS 49 44

Thank you, John Edwards
Thank you, Dick Cheney
Thank you, Michael Moore
Thank you, Ken Lay

13 -POLL AVERAGE					
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	AdjK	AdjB	Diff
Jan 	40.8	51.6	-10.8	46.1	53.9	-7.7
Feb	47.4	46.0	1.4	52.0	48.0	4.1
Mar	47.4	44.7	2.6	52.9	47.1	5.8
Apr	46.5	45.3	1.2	52.2	47.8	4.5
May	46.5	44.4	2.1	52.9	47.1	5.7
June	46.7	45.7	1.0	52.0	48.0	4.0
July	50.7	44.0	6.7	54.4	45.6	8.8
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SunDrop23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-08-04 10:37 AM
Response to Original message
1. Yaaaay!!!! Now let's go for 60%!!!!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-08-04 10:43 AM
Response to Original message
2. If Kerry has a 13 poll average of 54% on Nov.1.....
Edited on Thu Jul-08-04 10:55 AM by TruthIsAll
The chances that Bush can win without Diebold are extremely remote.
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