Kerry didn't gain much from Edwards vp pick ?

[JI7]

many in the media are concluding things based on how much kerry gained or didn't gain. they are trying to compare how much gore gained with lieberman to kerry with edwards. when gore announced lieberman as vp gore gained about 20 points. kerry gained in the single digits at most. but one has to understand that gore was a lot more behind bush at the time. another thing is that when lieberman was picked he right away went on all the tv shows, especially morning news shows. edwards isn't doing that. kerry kept everything tightly controlled and rather than send edwards out to reporters, he decided to go on joint campaigning in the swing states. the more people see edwards (and kerry) the more they will like them.

remember, the reason kerry has not fallen so far behind despite media mostly ignoring him and the millions in attack ads is because he has been going around directly to the people in various states and campaigning.

just keep some of this in mind when the whores try to put down the ticket.

[Gothmog]

1. Too early to tell impact

It is far too early to try to measure the bump from adding Senator Edwards to the ticket. In addition, there are far fewer undecideds this year and so any little bump is very very significant.

[papau]

12. NYT's Fournier and Rasmussen say no real bounce today

NYT's Ron Fournier - Bush holds a slight lead over Kerry in a head-to-head matchup, according to a recent poll, but the Democratic ticket pulls even with Edwards on it.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/national/AP-Edwards-Impact.html

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 46%
Kerry 46%
Other 4%
Not Sure 4%
Thursday July 08, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows the candidates are tied once again. President George W. Bush and Senator John F. Kerry each attract 46% of the vote. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

We have modified the Tracking Poll to reflect the fact that it is now a Kerry-Edwards ticket running against a Bush-Cheney ticket. Before Edwards was selected, the choice offered was simply Bush vs. Kerry. Two-thirds of the interviews for today's report were completed with the new approach.

Democrats are now much more optimistic about their prospects of winning in November. In fact, among all voters, 46% believe the Bush-Cheney team will be re-elected while 44% believe Kerry and Edwards will emerge victorious. Those figures represent a dramatic improvement from a month ago. Scott Rasmussen will be discussing this and other topics on Fox and Friends Friday morning at 8:20 a.m. Eastern.


Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry
Today 46 46
July 7 47 45
July 6 47 46
July 5 No Polling July 4th Weekend
July 4
July 3
July 2 46 46
July 1 45 46
June 30 45 46
June 29 45 45
June 28 45 45
June 27 46 46
June 26 46 46

[RummyTheDummy]

2. Depends on which poll you look at

The NBC poll had Kerry up by 8 with Shithead (Nader) in the race. Without him the lead was 11 points.

[calico1]

3. I agree.

What they should be asking instead is why the incumbent President,with his barrage of negative ads and the media on his side (well, they won't admit that) and with barely any coverage of Kerry's campaign can only manage to be even at best in the polls?

[lancdem]

4. Who said Gore gained 20 points when he picked Lieberman??

There's no way that's even close to being right. I read somewhere that he gained 5 points, and that was considered good. And Gore was way behind Bush at the time. Kerry was running even with him, now he's 2-11 points ahead.

You don't have to convince me Kerry's doing the right thing. Plus, the selection of Edwards brings a bunch of southern states in play; Gore's choice of Lieberman didn't help him electorally much, if at all.

[jdsmith]

5. Earlier today CNN was big on "63%" say it hasn't changed their minds

(Or it might have been on Olberman last night.) It didn't change my mind, of course--nor do I think it changed many others around here or in the Republican forums. But of those who said they were more or less likely to vote for Kerry now ("independents"), positives outweighed negatives 3-1.

Can these "experts" not understand the mathematics of post-2000 election polling?

[jobycom]

6. That's because Pollsters are using old formulas

Kerry solidified his base by choosing Edwards. THis base wasn't likely to go to Bush, but they could have leaked down to Nader or out of the process altogether. Edwards makes them more likely to vote.

Also, polls are waited to consider certain turnout ratios. So many blacks, so many whites, so many of each gender, so many Dems and Repubs, etc. What they don't measure (most don't) is how likely those groups are to turn out. If they call 50 each of Repubs and Dems, and say "How likely are you to vote?" and then poll only those who say "very likely," they will then chose even numbers of likely voters from each party. What they aren't measuring is how many say the aren't as likely to vote. These Repubs may not like Bush, but may not be want to vote for Kerry. They will stay home, as long as kerry doesn't motivate them into fearing him worse. This is one reason Bush tries to paint Kerry as evil, and one reason Kerry tries not to offend these voters too much. No one wants to energize their opponent's base. Bush has already done that, though, so he's got to scare his weak supporters into voting against Kerry. That's a weak area for pollsters.

Edwards helped Kerry's ticket a great deal. It energized our base, and it didn't upset Bush's base enough to scare them into voting.

[AP]

7. Lieberman never would have generated 10-20K people audiences.

Also, who needs to let the media mediate the relationship between the candidate and the public when you can trot around the country and do the retail-politics (well, not retail, really, but Kerry and Edwards are talking directly to huge audiences in OH and FL and creating a real buzz and getting great local press).

[ps1074]

8. remember it is a 45%-45% situation

So, that leaves only 10% undecided voters. What bounce do you expect from only 10% voters? Even a 3-4% bounce will be signigicant.

Another point - bounce would occur if the BASE is not fully behind its candidate. This year the dem base is energized like never before, so a VP bounce is less likely.

[JI7]

9. true, i'm sure it was democrats gore gained back

when he announced his vp. and kerry already has these on his side .

[Beaverhausen]

10. oh really?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5388317/

snip

According to the poll, which was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, a Kerry-Edwards ticket gets support from 49 percent of registered voters, while President Bush and Vice President Cheney get 41 percent, and independent Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo get 4 percent. In a two-way race, Kerry-Edwards leads Bush-Cheney, 54 percent to 43 percent.

These results represent a boost for Kerry's campaign, compared with polls from a week ago showing that the race was essentially tied. "Subject to confirmation in surveys with longer field periods, the numbers suggest at least a short-term bounce for the Democratic ticket," said Evans Witt, who conducted this poll, which was done on July 6 and based on interviews with 504 registered voters. The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Edwards versus Cheney
When asked who would do a better job of running the country, 45 percent said Edwards, while 38 percent said Cheney. That finding runs counter to Bush's answer Wednesday to a reporter's request for him to compare Cheney and Edwards. "Dick Cheney can be president. Next," Bush said curtly.

[Pabst Blue Democrat]

11. Whoa!

Gore did not gain anywhere near 20 points when he named Lieberman. It was closer to 3 or 4. However, there was a record set on the same day for the largest simultaneous head-scratching in the history of the United States. It is still unknown as to whether the events were related.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. Inside Politics said he got about a 5% bounce - average of several polls.

wtf are you talking about with a 20% bounce for Gore picking Lieberman? What is your source for that information? I don't think it is accurate.