TIA Analysis: Do the latest state polls confirm the national polls?

[TruthIsAll]

Do the latest state polls confirm the latest national polls?
I have calculated the average of 13-national polls and
compared to the latest state polls, weighted by Electoral
Votes for each state.

The state poll data source is:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The %calculations for Kerry and Bush are the Kerry total/538
and Bush total/538. The numbers are within a percentage point
of each other: the national polls had Kerry ahead by 46.7% to
Bush 45.7% in June; the state polls had them even at Kerry
45.08%, Bush 45.17%.

Based on these numbers and a 2-1 undecided voter split for
Kerry, Kerry would win by 52-48% if the election were held
today.

But note the following:
The polls do NOT include the effects of
1) F9/11
2) Ken Lay indictment, Enron/Bush scandal
3) Bush TANG microfilm scandal
4) Probable WH indictments for the Wilson/Plame leak.
5) John Edwards
6) Cheney/Halliburton scandal

13 -POLL AVERAGE		
Month	Kerry	Bush 
Jan 	40.8	51.6
Feb	47.4	46.0
Mar	47.4	44.7
Apr	46.5	45.3
May	46.5	44.4 
June	46.7	45.7 vs. 45.08 45.17
July	49.0	45.4


		8-Jul		Wtd by EV	
St	EV	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	 
AL	9	35	54	315	486	 
AK	3	33	56	99	168	  
AZ*	10	35	47	350	470	  
AR*	6	47	45	282	270	  
CA	55	52	38	2860	2090	  
CO	9	43	48	387	432	  
CT	7	50	32	350	224	  
DC	3	55	42	165	126	  
DE	3	89	9	267	27	  
FL*	27	48	43	1296	1161	  
GA	15	32	49	480	735	  
HI	4	56	37	224	148	  
ID	4	25	55	100	220	  
IL	21	52	39	1092	819	  
IN	11	36	52	396	572	  
IA*	7	48	44	336	308	  
KS	6	36	56	216	336	  
KY	8	39	52	312	416	  
LA	9	42	48	378	432	  
ME	4	46	45	184	180	  
MD	10	52	38	520	380	  
MA	12	60	31	720	372	  
MI*	17	47	43	799	731	  
MN*	10	50	45	500	450	  
MS	6	30	61	180	366	  
MO*	11	44	48	484	528	  
MT	3	33	53	99	159	  
NE	5	33	62	165	310	  
NV*	5	47	44	235	220	  
NH*	4	46	43	184	172	  
NJ	15	51	41	765	615	  
NM*	5	50	43	250	215	  
NY	31	55	36	1705	1116	  
NC	15	42	49	630	735	  
ND	3	33	61	99	183	  
OH*	20	45	44	900	880	  
OK	7	34	53	238	371	  
OR*	7	51	44	357	308	  
PA*	21	43	45	903	945	  
RI	4	53	31	212	124	  
SC	8	40	55	320	440	  
SD	3	35	51	105	153	  
TN*	11	39	57	429	627	  
TX	34	37	55	1258	1870	  
UT	5	22	67	110	335	  
VT	3	51	36	153	108	  
VA	13	45	47	585	611	  
WA*	11	49	41	539	451	  
WV*	5	43	49	215	245	  
WI*	10	42	46	420	460	 
WY	3	28	68	84	204	  
Tot	538   -     -    24,252	 24,304	
Wtd % = Tot/538          45.08 45.17	  
						

				

[TruthIsAll]

1. The state polls appear to confirm the national polls.

tia

[TruthIsAll]

2. for the night watchman

tia