July Surprise + Shaukat Aziz as new Pakistan PM

[phoebe]

with the news of an impending "July Surprise" also
thought it might be interesting to discuss Mr. Shaukat Aziz, the upcoming PM for Pakistan.

Here is snip from The New Republic's "July Surprise" article found at:
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040719&s=aaj071904

snip

This public pressure would be appropriate, even laudable, had it not been accompanied by an unseemly private insistence that the Pakistanis deliver these high-value targets (HVTs) before Americans go to the polls in November. The Bush administration denies it has geared the war on terrorism to the electoral calendar. "Our attitude and actions have been the same since September 11 in terms of getting high-value targets off the street, and that doesn't change because of an election," says National Security Council spokesman Sean McCormack. But The New Republic has learned that Pakistani security officials have been told they must produce HVTs by the election. According to one source in Pakistan's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), "The Pakistani government is really desperate and wants to flush out bin Laden and his associates after the latest pressures from the U.S. administration to deliver before the U.S. elections." Introducing target dates for Al Qaeda captures is a new twist in U.S.-Pakistani counterterrorism relations--according to a recently departed intelligence official, "no timetable" were discussed in 2002 or 2003--but the November election is apparently bringing a new deadline pressure to the hunt. Another official, this one from the Pakistani Interior Ministry, which is responsible for internal security, explains, "The Musharraf government has a history of rescuing the Bush administration. They now want Musharraf to bail them out when they are facing hard times in the coming elections." (These sources insisted on remaining anonymous. Under Pakistan's Official Secrets Act, an official leaking information to the press can be imprisoned for up to ten years.)

A third source, an official who works under ISI's director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed tnr that the Pakistanis "have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before election is absolute must." What's more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: "The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during meetings in Washington." Says McCormack: "I'm aware of no such comment." But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that "it would be best if the arrest or killing of HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July"--the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.

Mr Shaukat Aziz is worthy of some close attention as he is Musharraf's pick for Prime Minister of Pakistan. Mr. Aziz
appears to be hailed as new PM sometime in the fall. PM timeline falls between mid-August and November 2004 depending on what paper one reads.

Anyway here are some tidbits re: Mr. Aziz - note the strong ties to Saudi Arabia and our own admin.

http://www.saag.org/papers11/paper1040.html

snip

* The total trust of Musharraf enjoyed by him. Musharraf, who understands little of economy, gave a free hand to Aziz and instructed Jamali that no recommendations of Aziz in economic matters could be overruled by him (Jamali) without consulting him (Musharraf) beforehand.

* The excellent equation enjoyed by him with the ruling and other princely families of Saudi Arabia. When he took over as the Finance Minister, the Pakistani economy was tottering from the effects of the additional economic sanctions imposed by the US and other Western countries after the Chagai nuclear tests of May,1998. Pakistan might not have been able to meet the resulting crisis without generous assistance from Saudi Arabia in the form of concessional oil facilities and other means.

* The network of friendships built up by him in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during his stay in the US, which made them more sympathetic to Pakistani requests and more attentive to Pakistani difficulties than they were under Benazir and Nawaz.

* 9/11 and Pakistan's emergence as the so-called frontline ally of the US in the war against terrorism. This led to a removal of all sanctions against Pakistan and there was a tremendous increase in aid flow from the US and other Western countries. This flow was supplemented by US payments for the use of Pakistani military facilities by the US armed forces for logistic and other purposes.


http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_9-7-2004_pg7_50

snip

Mr Aziz is the man widely credited with turning around an economy that was flirting with insolvency just a few years ago.

The paper said that President Musharraf’s move was also raising doubts about the future of democratic progress in Pakistan, a pivotal ally in the US’s battle against Al Qaeda’s Islamist terrorists. Instead of taking a step toward returning to civilian rule, analysts say President Musharraf’s nomination of a nonpolitician and technocrat as premier further strengthens the military’s control over Pakistan’s political process.

“Mr Aziz’s nomination indicates that Musharraf can’t live with any of the 190 members of the ruling coalition in the National Assembly,” WSJ quoted Daily Times Editor Najam Sethi as saying. “Nothing could have been more farcical than the way the military president imposed his verdict.”

Mr Aziz, a 55-year-old former Citibank senior executive is expected to win a seat in the National Assembly in a by-election scheduled for late August. Membership in the assembly will qualify him to hold the post of prime minister under Pakistan’s constitution. He would succeed Zafaraullah Khan Jamali, who resigned as prime minister last week, 19 months after taking office. “Mr Jamali earned President Musharraf’s displeasure by failing to effectively defend the president’s policies for fighting terrorists holed up in the tribal areas,” the paper quoted aides to the president as saying.

Would like others thoughts on Mr. Aziz and what we can come to expect from Pakistan in the near future.

PS - Recently Pakistan has been busy testing nuclear devices.

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. If you just look for replies to your posts

you need to edit - somehow underlining got switched on for most of your post.

[phoebe]

2. apologies - here is most of post once again..

with the news of an impending "July Surprise" also
thought it might be interesting to discuss Mr. Shaukat Aziz, the upcoming PM for Pakistan.

Here is snip from The New Republic's "July Surprise" article found at:
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040719&s=aaj071904

snip

This public pressure would be appropriate, even laudable, had it not been accompanied by an unseemly private insistence that the Pakistanis deliver these high-value targets (HVTs) before Americans go to the polls in November. The Bush administration denies it has geared the war on terrorism to the electoral calendar. "Our attitude and actions have been the same since September 11 in terms of getting high-value targets off the street, and that doesn't change because of an election," says National Security Council spokesman Sean McCormack. But The New Republic has learned that Pakistani security officials have been told they must produce HVTs by the election. According to one source in Pakistan's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), "The Pakistani government is really desperate and wants to flush out bin Laden and his associates after the latest pressures from the U.S. administration to deliver before the U.S. elections." Introducing target dates for Al Qaeda captures is a new twist in U.S.-Pakistani counterterrorism relations--according to a recently departed intelligence official...

snip

A third source, an official who works under ISI's director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed tnr that the Pakistanis "have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before election is absolute must." What's more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: "The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during meetings in Washington." Says McCormack: "I'm aware of no such comment." But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that "it would be best if the arrest or killing of HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July"--the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.

Anyway - interesting to note Mr. Aziz's ties to Saudi Arabia and our own admin.

http://www.saag.org/papers11/paper1040.html

snip

The total trust of Musharraf enjoyed by him. Musharraf, who understands little of economy, gave a free hand to Aziz and instructed Jamali that no recommendations of Aziz in economic matters could be overruled by him (Jamali) without consulting him (Musharraf) beforehand.
* The excellent equation enjoyed by him with the ruling and other princely families of Saudi Arabia. When he took over as the Finance Minister, the Pakistani economy was tottering from the effects of the additional economic sanctions imposed by the US and other Western countries after the Chagai nuclear tests of May,1998. Pakistan might not have been able to meet the resulting crisis without generous assistance from Saudi Arabia in the form of concessional oil facilities and other means.

* The network of friendships built up by him in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during his stay in the US, which made them more sympathetic to Pakistani requests and more attentive to Pakistani difficulties than they were under Benazir and Nawaz.

* 9/11 and Pakistan's emergence as the so-called frontline ally of the US in the war against terrorism. This led to a removal of all sanctions against Pakistan and there was a tremendous increase in aid flow from the US and other Western countries. This flow was supplemented by US payments for the use of Pakistani military facilities by the US armed forces for logistic and other purposes.

now appears can't post the snips from the Daily Times..

would like others thoughts on what we should expect in the near future from Pakistan. By the way, Pakistan has tested nuclear weapons very recently and seems to be getting rather cosy with China.


Found this new article when trying to get the Daily Times article to come up -

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_9-7-2004_pg1_1

snip

India raises defence spending by 23%

* Increases border fencing budget also
* Will finance Baglihar project
* Signs MoU with UK for 24 Hawk jets

By Iftikhar Gilani

NEW DELHI: Despite a thaw in relations with Pakistan, India has increased its defence expenditure by a whopping 23 percent and has increased outlays for atomic energy, space, intelligence agencies, paramilitary forces and border fencing.

New Delhi will buy combat trainer jets, airborne strategic radars and an aircraft carrier. Presenting the first union budget of the new Congress government on Thursday, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram announced that the government would finance the controversial Baglihar hydroelectric project along the Chenab River. Expressing determination to eliminate “all delays” in modernisation of the armed forces, the finance minister proposed Rs 770 billion for the defence budget against the revised estimates of Rs 630 billion. He, however, did away with the Vajpayee government’s proposal to set aside Rs 250 billion as three-year non-lapsable revolving fund.

so now what??