How much of a political hit would Bush take if he dumped Cheney? Discuss.

[VolcanoJen]

This is a legitimate point that I think we should begin considering. I should preface all of this by saying that it is my fervent hope that Cheney stays ON the ticket. He's unpopular, and he damages Bush in ways that are deep and personal and relatively unreported.

The "Dump Cheney" debate has been resurrected, and I'm just beginning to wonder how plausible that scenario would be, in terms of political survival going into the conventions.

Taking our partisan hats off for one moment, what do the rest of you think about this option, from an opposition perspective?

[Manix]

1. Big Time (no pun intended) LOL!

His base would flip out. He's the link to the neo-cons
and the social cons. If they replaced him with a moderate (pro-choice)
a lot of his base may stay at home in November.

[VolcanoJen]

2. See, that's what I'm thinking.

But does Bush try to move to the center, to the swing vote, by dumping Cheney?

And, if he dumped Cheney, doesn't his crediblity continue to sink, regardless of the excuse attached (ie, "undisclosed health problems")?

[Manix]

5. I just think he's got to keep his base intact, that is his achilles heel.

He knows his father lost the base and went down and from what I've read he's obsessed with keeping it. He'll sink or swim with Cheney.

[arcos]

20. he can pick a 'good' social conservative like Senator on Dog Santorum...

Comes from a swing state, and is a "good catholic" unlike Kerry... and would please the religious right very, very much. Ralph Reed would probably have the first orgasms in his life.

[VolcanoJen]

32. Eww!!! Thanks for the Ralph Reed visual!

Yick... ;-)

[Rowdyboy]

3. Jen, I really think he (Bush) has backed himself into a corner

If Cheney leaves, even if he REALLY is sick, everyone will think Bush tossed him overboard. If he stays, Bush is stuck with him and that will hurt "big-time". Unless he has a stroke or something, I think Dubya is stuck with the evil old bastard and that gonna hurt him..

[calico1]

22. I think you are right

One thing they have been consistent with is appealing to the base. Every thing they have done has been with the base in mind, not the rest of the country. Cheney is a creep to us and I'm sure a lot of swing voters. But the base loves him. For Bush to try to appeal to the middle means he has to move away from his base. He's not going to do that. The base is the only sure thing he's got.

[tritsofme]

4. It would depend on who he picked.

If it was someone like McCain, then I think that any hit he took from his base would be temporary and would be more than compensated by spoils gained from moderates and the media that worships the ground McCain walks on. This is my biggest concern in terms of VP replacement. I honestly don't know if a Bush/McCain ticket could be stopped. This would be very favorable to him as well, as it would make his path clear in 2008 if he so choosed.

If it was Frist, I think the effect would be neutral to slightly negative as it would have no impact on the electorate at large, but might piss off some of his base.

If it was Tom Ridge, I think it would be a neutral effect in terms of the overall popular opinion, but my concern is that he would give them enough oompf to push them over the line PA, and that would be disastrous in the electoral picture.

Guliani would be an absolute disaster for bush. He is pro-gay rights pro-choice and fairly liberal on most social issues. I think a sizable portion of the GOP base would sit on their hands and eat their own before they voted for a ticket with Guliani on it.

In all honesty I believe that in the polarized electoral environment that we exist in, the VP makes very little difference on the final outcome of the election.

[VolcanoJen]

7. Plus, Guliani has this little, nagging "Family Values" problem.

Tom Ridge makes the most sense to me, but I still don't think choosing him would effectively counteract the negativity of dumping the de facto President, Cheney.

And John McCain... they have got to be kidding me. It's likely painful enough for McCain to grit his teeth while supporting the Bush campaign as it stands. McCain knows his role in the Senate yields much, much more influence than the subservient VP slot would.

He might just be strong-armed and guilted into it by the party faithful, though, and that concerns me deeply.

[Tactical Progressive]

9. All the stuff about Bush's dirty tricks against McCain

would come up and stay up, and it wouldn't be pretty. Everyone would recognize how desperate Bush is in dumping Cheney, and then even moreso in bringing McCain on. McCain might not even go for it - he knows what he would be in a Bush administration: nothing.

[VolcanoJen]

13. The McCain attacks would certainly eclipse Kerry's "Edwards in Diapers"...

... comment, which is, rather disappointingly and out-of-context, hyped by the media.

I think the whole VeepLust issue is a lose-lose for Bush.

[arcos]

21. I believe Ridge is pro-choice too...

I think he was considered for VP before Dick Fuckyourself chose himself, and he was vetoed because he's pro-choice.

[bushwakker]

24. Hagel for Veep - Cheney moves to State

Fresh face on the ticket, reassures the neo-cons that Cheney's still around to tuck AWOL in at night. Powell is out anyway.

[saracat]

6. No Hit At All !

It is my understanding that the inside the Beltway Repugs are "begging" W to dump Cheney.Vice's apprval is somerwhere in the 20% range and they think he only hurts the ticket. We better pray he keeps cheney.Perception could be spun to exonerate Dumbo who was taken in by the bad man.It seems they forgive W anything.

[AngryLizard]

12. It's been, what, two days since Kerry picked Edwards

And already there's discussion about dumping Cheney from the ticket, which followed Bush bagging on them in Pennsylvania, which followed the 28-page memo on why Edwards sucks. Methinks some political party is running scared. On CNN today, one of their campaign guys was going on and on about how Kerry-Edwards were enjoying a "bump", and it was nothing, and then sneering about how Kerry said his team had better hair, and why don't they release the tape from the "hatefest fundraiser" from last night. Whatever happened to not drawing attention to your opponent? Whatever happened to extolling your own virtues instead? The republicans are just stumbling all over themselves in attack mode, 'cause they know they've got NOTHING. Iraq is a mess, the economy is a mess (82% of these so-called "new jobs" that have been created are in retail and service, so welcome back to the wonderful land of underemployment), they still haven't caught the guy that planned 9/11, but they're still giving his family money and access. They've got nothing. What do they have to say, except "Kerry Sucks"? It's the same crap Bush's dad try to pull with Clinton. And it didn't work then, either. Voters can smell fear.

[saracat]

16. Absolutely right.

And if you saw the chimps press conference ,you knew it. He's losing it. I think he may implode before the election!

[VolcanoJen]

18. Will the unceremonious unloading of Cheney be part of it, though?

Isn't it pretty much a lose-lose proposition for the sinking Chimp?

[newyawker99]

25. Hi AngryLizard!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[jobycom]

8. Won't matter either way

Bush will win or lose on his own, and his sidekick (yes, I know that's not the true relationship, but appearance is what matters) won't matter.

The only bounce he might get would be the media's fawning over the new selection and pimping for him 24/7. But when that wears down, they still have an idiot posterboy with falling numbers who led us into an unpopular war. When people start to admit they were fooled, Bush can have God on his ticket and still lose.

Our biggest enemy now is the media. We all saw what they did to Edwards. They will do the reverse to Bush. We have to defeat them more than we have to beat Bush.

[Tactical Progressive]

11. I agree with that last part

American corporate journalism has in the past fifteen or twenty years turned into the biggest enemy this country has had since the heights of the Cold War. Terrorism isn't even a minor concern compared to what that institution has become.

[jobycom]

28. Yellow Press and McKinley

Bush and Rove made a big deal about modelling his candidacy on McKinley's, but his presidency has followed that route, too. Under McKinley, an explosion aboard the USS Maine was blamed on terrorism, and the press promoted a war against SPain. The nation went mad with imperial patriotism, we made an ultimatum against Spain, they complied, and we attacked their fleet anyway. When the war was over, we were an empire, and McKinley used that new position to promote corporate expansion, all the while the media pushed him as a national hero. Some of the leaders of the war were turned into action figure toys.

The press has been here before.I don't know we fix it this time. Actually, my history of that period is weak, so I don't know how we fixed it that time.

McKinley was reelected, but was assassinated by one of the few cases of a liberal (an anarchist in this case) offing a conservative leader. Bush won't get that chance at immortality, since we'll boot his butt in November.

[Blue Wally]

38. Four presidents have been assasinated

Lincoln
Garfield
McKinley
Kennedy

[Manix]

10. Rove has said that in 2000 election 4 million evangelical Christian

voters stayed home. That is the prize he is after. Whatever
calculations they make will bear this in mind. The pandering has
already begun.

[VolcanoJen]

15. Will it be enough? And where does this voting block stand with Cheney?

I just finished watching a repeat of "Bill Moyers" on PBS, and his panel insisted that the veep issue is bigger this year, not smaller. I can't put it quite as eloquently as some of them did, but it made sense, at the time...

[Manix]

17. In a tight election it may be significant in some states. From what I've

heard Cheney has good support here. This is where a
social moderate replacement could hurt. I suspect they are polling like crazy and gaming all the possibilities.

[ibegurpard]

14. Depends on how the media spins it.

eom

[radfringe]

19. This would be risky

This would be risky -- if potty-mouth were to be replaced, it will have to be for 'plausible and non-controversial' reasons -- such as health concerns. Any replacement due to, ummm, errr, fallout from a scandal (like Halliburton, war-profiteering or Plame-outing) would definitely damage bush* and GOPers.

Firtly -- have heard many reich-wingers saying that the only reason they will vote for bush* is because potty-mouth is on the ticket. Believe it or not - these reich-wingers see bush* as being too liberal and view potty-mouth as being more in-line with their views

Moderate republicans and those conservative leaning independents are having a hard time sticking with bush* so bush* needs potty-mouth to keep the far-right voting for him.

secondly - as it's been often reported -- bush* "values" loyalty above all else -- if he dumps potty-mouth -- then what does that say about loyalty?

There is also speculation that bush* may dump potty-mouth AFTER Nov. selection -- (that is assuming bush* is appointed again). On the surface there would be no gain DIRECTLY for bush* to dump potty-mouth -- but there could be a gain for GOPers as a whole. Replacing potty-mouth AFTER Nov. could give GOPers an edge in 2006 midterms and introduce the country to an "heir-apparent".

---------

a Poll I would like to see: Who do you think is REALLY in charge?
bush*
Cheney
other

----------

on the "news" reporting fron -- I actually heard a reporter on CNN mention that while on the cmapaign trail - bush* still finds it necessary to justify Iraq invasion -- and reporter added after a brief pause -- "...15 months after the inital invasion..."

[bushwakker]

23. First of all, any talk of the GOP going with a pro-choice Veep is

foolish. It will not happen. They would lose as many votes as they won. Same goes with an African-American. As Josh Marshall says - you can't be the party of white resentment and the party of inclusion at the same time.

Much of the public (rightly) sees Cheney as the power behind the thrown. He reassured people in 2000 that there would be an experienced hand there to help the Chimp. For him to be dumped would be a much bigger deal than say, dumping Quayle in 1992. It could set off a general feeling that the Adminstration is sinking and that panic has set in. It could backfire Big Time. In addition, the conservative pundits are mostly very supportive of Cheney and this would set off a bit of a civil war in the GOP.

Here's a scenario. Bush taps Ridge, McCain or Hagel as Veep and moves Cheney to State. This reassure folks that the evil one will still be around to hold Chimpy's hand while adding a fresh face to the ticket.

[kodi]

26. for bush, indicative of "decisive, presidential." kerry do it? a flip-flop

.

[BillZBubb]

27. It could be gamed into a big plus.

As others have pointed out, the reason for Cheney's departure would have to be plausible--ie his heart or other health issue. That would not be hard to pull off.

The guy selected would have to be hard right to hold the base, but "stealth" to the general population. McCain would be only so-so in this regard. He could use some relatively unknown senator, like Brownback from Kansas. That would not excite many people, but it would remove a big negative-Cheney, while keeping the Fundie base very happy.

The corporate media, no doubt, would hail the pick as being the greatest political move in history.

Another DUer suggested that Kerry demand Bush* remove Cheney from the ticket. That way, Bush* would keep him no matter what.

[Zomby Woof]

29. Simple reason why it won't

No matter how they would spin it - "health reasons" being the likely winner - dumping Cheney would be an admission of being WRONG, and since when will Bush do THAT?

I recall very vividly a "dump Quayle" movement also started by the Repukes back in '92. It fizzled, as will this.

Like father, like son, there was no admission of being wrong.

"Stay the course" is more than a mantra with these fuckers. It's inbred.

Sorry Jen, but I think the issue is just being thrown out there to stir the pot and little else.

I will bet my Joe Morgan baseball glove on it. ;-)

[wicket]

30. They'll "stay the course" right over the cliff!

:D

[Zomby Woof]

31. like I said

Like father, like son! One term and you're done! :D

[VolcanoJen]

36. Hey, don't apologize to me! I CRAVE Cheney on the ticket!

:bounce:

[Zomby Woof]

37. lol!

That may be the ONLY acceptable use of "crave" and "Cheney" adjacent in the same sentence. :evilgrin:

[Yupster]

33. What if they did it the third night

of the convention?

Cheney is the prime-time speaker. The whole evening is a tribute to him, and then in his speach, he says he can't run another term due to his health. The president deserves a vigorous partner in his prime, and I can't be that.

With deep gratitude and great confidence, I am happy to resign my job right now, and I will now introduce you to the new, and future, pending quick senate confirmation, Vice-president of the United States, Senator Elizabeth Dole.

That's assuming Powell still won't do it.

[Tactical Progressive]

34. Cheney would never leave - he's the driving force

in this modern democratic chapter of Fascism; Bush is the figurehead. That's alot different than if Dan Quayle or even Al Gore were to have stepped aside, and everyone would know it.

The most that would happen would be Cheney becoming Chief of Staff or some such central figure, which means he wouldn't be retiring at all, just moving farther back out of sight. That wouldn't square with any health excuse, which is the only fig leaf that would even come close to sounding plausibly non-political.

If we had any honest mainstream journalism left in America such a fake reorientation would be easy for all to see because the questions would persistently revolve around whether Cheney is going to completely retire from Washington and go home like Karen Hughes. When he wouldn't affirm that, everyone would know it's just political smoke and mirrors. Of course, what the media would do would be to cheerlead breathlessly, then dismiss Democrats who wouldn't accept such blatant chicanery at face value.

[Yupster]

39. I thought it was the BFEE

Was grandpa Cheney behind Prescott Bush and his evil doings, or has Cheney just recently hijacked the BFEE?

[Ducks In A Row]

35. This assumes that Bush is in control

He's only even been a puppet. 9/11 showcased this.

If there's a change it will be Cheney picking a new puppet.

[against all enemies]

40. Shows PANIC.

Unless they get McCain or Powell. But either of those would demand the top of the ticket. Now that I think of it they would run the country while Georgie-boy goes to Crawford.