Rasmussen: Kerry/Edwards 49 Bush/Cheney 45

[Goldmund]

Saturday July 10, 2004--Senator Kerry now leads President Bush in the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll, 49% to 45%. Today's results reflect a five-point net gain for the Democrats since John Edwards was named as Kerry's running mate. In our last survey before the announcement, President Bush had a one-point edge, 47% to 46%.

Today is the first time since Kerry wrapped up the nomination that either candidate topped the 48% mark in our daily Tracking Poll. Prior to today, both candidates had stayed within three points of the 45% mark on every single night of polling for more than 120 days.

www.rasmussenreports.com

[wyethwire]

1. and the Repubs are claiming no Edwards bounce

right ... lets see them explain this

[opihimoimoi]

3. They are reduced/regulated to distortion, denigration, distraction,

deciet, and Arrogance.... They have Bull shitted so much, they cannot claim Truth and Reason. Pity.

[senseandsensibility]

2. Forget Republicans!

There have even been some threads on DU about Edwards not helping the ticket. Personally, I think it's obvious that he is helping, and this proves it.:toast:

[PittPoliSci]

4. it doesn't really prove anything...

cause its still within a margin of error and its still too damn close for my liking, althought personally, I had hoped that the "bounce" would've been larger.

[HFishbine]

5. Didn't Dukakis

get something like 15 point bounce from Bentson?

[Wright Patman]

6. Bentsen didn't help

that much. He couldn't carry Texas. If you as a native Texan cannot carry your own home state against a carpetbagging interloper like George H.W. Bush, you have not helped the cause. Bush had never carried anything beyond a congressional district in his so-called "home" state until the 1988 election.

Reagan trounced him anytime he was on the ballot against Elder Bush. Heck, even Ralph Yarborough, one of the most liberal U.S. Senators in Texas history, made short shrift of H.W. in 1964.

I don't recall any kind of bounce like that in the first week after Sen. Bentsen's selection, but you may be right.

What killed Dukakis electorally, along with the fact that he was too short (yes, unfortunately image does matter) and "effete," was one of the most diabolically brilliant campaign managers of all time, the late GOP operative Lee Atwater of South Carolina.

He didn't even come up with Willie Horton as a concept originally, but he took it and ran with it for every last racist vote down South and even elsewhere that it could bring Bush. He did the same thing with the "Pledge of Allegiance" issue.

Molly Ivins 'eulogized' him by saying, "His own brain eventually rebelled at the toxicity of his thoughts," or something like that. He died of brain cancer and apologized on his deathbed for all the politicians' whose lives he had destroyed.

[qazplm]

7. yeah but not in one day guy

we have to exhibit some patience, bounces happen in a time frame of many days, not one or two.

Even a convention bounce would take a day or two to take hold.

[eaprez]

8. Its almost impossible for it to be bigger.....

....both sides are fighting for (at tops) 10% of the electorate. If 45% of the country is hard core Dem and 45% is hard core Repub as has been stated over and over and over...then all thats left is 10%.

[AndyTiedye]

12. If it's really 45% Bushbots's We Cannot Win on "Swing Voters" Alone

> If 45% of the country is hard core Dem and 45% is hard core Repub

If it is really that way we cannot win on "swing voters"
The Republican advantage in the Electoral College is too great.
We would have to take 80% of the "swing voters", and we would have
to prevent ANY election fraud by the Republicans.

With 45% plus Florida hard-wired Republican as it appears to be,
it would not be enough,
even if every swing voter in the country votes for Kerry.

We either have to get some of that 45% to see F/911,
or turn a bunch of UNlikely voters into Kerry voters.

[AndyTiedye]

11. Not Much of a Bounce Given Edwards AND F/911

We should be way ahead by now. It's not clear that 3% even really IS
ahead, given the 7% advantage the Electoral College gives the Republicans.

We must not bank on any convention bounce either.
Rove has obviously made a deal with the Boston cop union to cheney up the Democratic convention,
They will set up picket lines everywhere, so Kerry won't even be able
to get near the convention site without crossing one.
If he crosses one, it will foobar his support with the unions,
and he will, of course, be accused of flip-flopping.
If he doesn't, they can't even HAVE a convention.
The networks will happily take the excuse to cover the pickets instead of the Democrats.

We have a long way to go.

(Already donated the limit to Kerry, and a bunch to verifiedvoting.org)

[LiberalManiacfromOC]

Let's hope it stays that way!

I'm going to donate to Kerry.

Edit: that stupid posting error happened

[TexasSissy]

9. I hope this keeps up.

[LiberalManiacfromOC]

10. Let's hope it stays that way!

I'm going to donate to Kerry.