Electorial votes looking very good at the moment!!!!

[PoliticsSportsMusic]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm

[RoyGBiv]

1. Rasmussen

I don't tend to trust Rasmussen's numbers. The weighting methods they use tend to favor Republicans. However, if its numbers are Kerry-favorable, then this is positive news.

I still won't be paying too much attention to polls until after the RNC when all the bounces due to major staged political events are accounted for.

The Republicans have been trying to set up Democrats to appear as though they are falling below expectations by publicizing the the standard 10-15 point jump a candidate gets after the convention and then claiming they aren't worried about it. (I heard one commentator predict that level of a jump after the Edwards announcement.) This typical jump doesn't account for the current polarization and certainty among the voter bases, which is unprecedented in the modern era. More people have made up their minds than is normal at this point in the cycle, meaning the bounces likely won't be as dramatic. If the Kerry bounces are as dramatic as Republicans claim they should be, the Pugs are in serious trouble ... and I'm talking about Congress and possibly state races here, not just the presidency.

[0rganism]

2. 2 reasons not to get excited

1. Ohio was moved into the "toss-up" category, as bush has opened a 4-point lead in the polls there. Ohio is pretty much a must-win state for Kerry, barring some shocking defections in the south.

2. Florida is counted in the Kerry column, and there is no way in hell Democrats can compete against the current Florida GOP corruption machine. Jeb will make sure things swing bush's way in November, just like before.

[RummyTheDummy]

3. That may be true but.....

1. If Kerry is up by 8 or more points in Florida on election day, Jeb might not have the ability to rig that much of a swing. In reality, there's only so much he can do. Three to five points max.

2. Arrogance. Deepdown, they don't believe they CAN lose. It's just like Poppy in 92. By the time they realize it really can happen, it'll be too late.

[0rganism]

4. We'll just have to see when the time comes, really

as for point-counterpoint, I submit to you that

1. Half of Florida is using inauditable touch-screen vote machines

2. Their belief is not unfounded; it is rooted in the premise that they can play as dirty as they like without any accountability whatsoever.