Analysis of 155 polls reveals why Undecideds will break for Kerry

[TruthIsAll]

I have posted the Kerry % of the final vote based on the latest nationwide and state polls, which were adjusted assuming that 70% of the undecideds will break for Kerry. The rationale is that undecideds tend to vote against an incumbent, otherwise they would have already committed to vote for him/her, who they know very well.

National 13-poll analysis
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1963944

State poll, Electoral Vote Simulation
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1967897


On the other hand, undecideds are ready to committ to the comparatively unknown challenger, who they are just getting to know. They just want him to close the sale. If he does, he gets their vote.

John Kerry and John Edwards are closing the sale.

The Incumbent Rule
http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

How will undecideds vote on election day? Traditionally, there have been two schools of thought about how undecideds in trial heat match-ups will divide up at the ballot box. One is that they will break equally; the other, that they will split in proportion to poll respondents who stated a candidate preference.

But our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an incumbent, the traditional answers are wrong. Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.

The 155 polls we collected and analyzed were the final polls conducted in each particular race; most were completed within two weeks of election day. They cover both general and primary elections, and Democratic and Republican incumbents. They are predominantly from statewide races, with a few U.S. House, mayoral and countywide contests thrown in. Most are from the 1986 and 1988 elections, although a few stretch back to the 1970s.

The polls we studied included our own surveys, polls provided to us directly by CBS, Gallup, Gordon S. Black Corp., Market Opinion Research, Tarrance Associates, and Mason-Dixon Opinion Research, as well as polls that appeared in The Polling Report.

In 127 cases out of 155, most or all of the undecideds went for the challenger:


DISPOSITION OF UNDECIDED VOTERS
.

Most to challenger 127
Split equally 9
Most to incumbent 19



more...

[JHBowden]

1. 911 may work against us.

Junior has a psychological advantage in that most voters still associate him with 911 "heroics" and not 'My Pet Goat'. They may break for him not to change horses while threatened by the omnipresent scourge of terra.