ABC/NBC/CBS polls are showing Kerry/Edwards pulling away.

[TruthIsAll]

This table reflects the average Kerry poll numbers for the
three networks combined. 

Kerry is on the verge of a landslide based on these numbers
adjusted by Kerry picking up 70% of the undecided vote.

Note: ABC has not yet come out with a July poll, so the
current July numbers reflect just CBS and NBC. ABC had Kerry
up 53-45 in their June poll, so....

By the way, the polls are joint efforts of:
ABC/Washington Post
CBS/NY Times
NBC/Wall Street Journal

Can you spell E-S-T-A-B-L-I-S-H-M E-N-T ?


ABC/CBS/NBC						
Month	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	AdjK	AdjB	Diff
Jan 	 41.50 	 48.50 	 (7.00)	 48.50 	 51.50 	 (3.00)
Feb	 49.50 	 44.50 	 5.00 	 53.70 	 46.30 	 4.93 
Mar	 47.00 	 45.67 	 1.33 	 52.13 	 47.87 	 4.27 
Apr	 48.00 	 46.00 	 2.00 	 52.20 	 47.80 	 2.93 
May	 46.67 	 44.67 	 2.00 	 52.73 	 47.27 	 5.47 
June	 48.33 	 45.33 	 3.00 	 52.77 	 47.23 	 5.53 
July	 51.50 	 43.50 	 8.00 	 55.00 	 45.00 	 10.00 
						
					

[JaySherman]

1. No wonder they want to cancel the election.

It could be the only thing that will keep them in power.

[Warren DeMontague]

8. Yeah, I Had The Same Thought:

Tom Ridge: "Homeland Security will do everything in it's power to secure the election".. Creeeeeeepy!

[Nazgul35]

2. Did you have alot of time on your hands tonight!???

:evilgrin:

You know, another mathimatician wnet crazy and started mailing off bombs....

[Syrinx]

3. even my state of Alabama is improving

Bush still leads by 14 points, but that's still a seven-point improvement from last month.

(According to RasmussenReports.)

[Frances]

5. I'm glad the numbers are improving in Alabama

I think Bush will win because of gay marriage, etc., but I think Edwards helps Kerry in the state.

By the way, I agree with your politics, but War Eagle!

[Syrinx]

6. we have to put our differences aside for the sake of our country

But Roll Tide! :)

[Lestatdelc]

28. Wait until NC and maybeo GA get closer

As those states start showing K/E on the upside or movement that way which will come around... you will see Edwards in particular living in the southern states... I would love to see the absolute stalwart red-state of Alabama get put into play.

[VolcanoJen]

4. That's a very encouraging analysis.

Thank you for taking the time to do that, TruthIsAll!

Bush is the one who doesn't seem to be making the case for his reelection any more, yet the media keeps putting all the pressure to do so on Kerry.

It's clear from the trend that Bush is the one in trouble.

[faithnotgreed]

9. volcanojen - i have an admission if i may use this thread here...

i hate to say this (truly i do all the more today and its soooo evident i do not watch television)
and do let me say how incredibly sorry and embarrassed i am...

but i thought your picture that you have up in the corner there, was you

until i saw the posts earlier about getting kerry gear and then i saw the hero/zero photos on the shirt. and of course was wondering why your picture was the one who was a zero
ok i made that last part up but the rest i have to admit is true

i cant move to a swing state so is there anything else i can do to get forgiveness here...

[VolcanoJen]

20. OH. MY. GOD. Did you just accuse me of resembling Chimpy McFlightsuit?

You seriously thought my avatar was a photo of me? I'll forgive you, but it might take awhile. }(

God help DUers everywhere... I can't believe there is one among us who doesn't know a Chimp in a Flightsuit when he sees one.

[faithnotgreed]

22. i tried to tell ya! i do not watch the telly. plus i am sooo so so so

sorry. and that picture is so small. it looked to me like someone with curly hair flying out a little underneath the hat PLUS i thought it was you in a proud picture after you had parachuted or something (not to compare you to poppy now or anything....)

i just had to be honest and to be honest again - i was so glad to know that it wasnt you!

deepest apologies to you
and of course to your wonderful beautiful mother

guess i wont be running for office anytime soon...

[opihimoimoi]

27. When Nov comes around...... Kerry 64 % Bush 28 % Nader/others 8 %

Dems will retake Congress and the Senate.. Bush and Cheney go into hiding.. Rush, Sean, and Pat OReally are sputtering incoherently...

Pubs will go nuts and Implode.

[Frances]

7. I would love for Kerry to get 55% of the vote

because that will help him be a stronger leader

I also hope that we take back the Senate

And I hope that Tom DeLay goes to jail for all of his illegal corporate behavior

[Lex]

14. I hope on election night I hear "the most soundly defeated president ever"

that is my hope

[Zen]

10. It's a good start - keeping my fingers crossed.

I really don't want to have to fight a civil war over a chimpanzee taking over the country - what a waste of humanity.

[Lex]

11. Yeah, but I would, iff'n I hafta. n/t

[jayctravis]

13. typed out by a javascript...

Trying to get onto the Daily Show site I was redirected to "would you like to take a survey?" Sure! Why not?

Click yes.

"Sorry, you do not meet the requirements for the survey."

So this is either some very interesting satire from the DS folks, or it was the world's most clever pop up ad and I just bought a crate of ice cream somehow.

Oh...got my voter registration card, first time in 33 years.

[Lex]

15. Go you!!!

On your voter registration card, I mean.

And possibly the ice cream, or whatever you bought with that pop-up ad. :)

[faithnotgreed]

17. sooo glad to hear about the registration & welcome to du

[newyawker99]

32. Hi jayctravis!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Guaranteed]

12. This is awesome. nt

[Beaker]

16. what does "AdjK" and "AdjB" stand for?

I realize(am guessing) that the K and B stand for Kerry and Bush, so i'm really asking what the Adj part stands for, and what the numbers represent.

[Lex]

18. Might be adjusted for the undecided vote?

Historically breaks 60-80 percent in favor of the newcomer, not the incumbent.

[NJCher]

19. thanks, truth, for the good night's sleep

Cher

[nolabels]

21. I believe and trust nothing farther than I can throw it

Were are all the skeptical people hanging at nowadays?

I still see a media dominated by fascist Nazis that have a major investment in chimpy. My guess that it is the roper doper effect, watch out come November or sooner. Not that I would expect any less from them. Anybody remember Bushco approval rates just before 9/11 ?

I Believe In Father Christmas

They said there'll be snow at Christmas
They said there'll be peace on Earth
But instead it just kept on raining
A veil of tears for the Virgin's birth
I remember one Christmas morning
A winters light and a distant choir
And the peal of a bell and that Christmas Tree smell
And their eyes full of tinsel and fire

They sold me a dream of Christmas
They sold me a Silent Night
And they told me a fairy story
'Till I believed in the Israelite
And I believed in Father Christmas
And I looked at the sky with excited eyes
'Till I woke with a yawn in the first light of dawn
And I saw him and through his disguise

I wish you a hopeful Christmas
I wish you a brave New Year
All anguish pain and sadness
Leave your heart and let your road be clear
They said there'll be snow at Christmas
They said there'll be peace on Earth
Hallelujah Noel be it Heaven or Hell
The Christmas you get you deserve

Emerson Lake And Palmer Lyrics
http://www.lyricsdownload.com/emerson-lake-and-palmer-i-believe-in-father-christmas-lyrics.html

[JackDragna]

23. Your efforts..

..while encouraging, rest on potentially unsound methodology. What kind of voters comprised all three polls? What were the sample sizes? Averaging polls doesn't always paint an accurate picture of an overall trend.

[TruthIsAll]

25. Your criticism is based on unsound logic, lack of knowledge...

and performs no useful function here other than to get me riled up.

What's your problem?

Sorry to be so nasty, but you are so totally off base in your assertions that I am almost, but not quite, speechless.

These are polling results. All polls are just that, polls. Take them or leave them. Averaging polls is the BEST way to get at the overall trend. Would you rather just consider ONE poll?

As for sample sizes, go to polling report.com.

What kinds of voters were polled? Jeez, I'm assuming a representative random sample of registered or likely voters.

What is surprising is that these mediawhores, these Bush apologists, all seem to agree that he is going down.

Hope that explains things.

[Swamp Rat]

30. I remember reading a study by Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting -

The National Media Watch Group that said more than 2/3 of those polled were white, middle aged men. I can't find the exact article, but here's the site: http://www.fair.org/

If this is accurate, then your post makes me feel even better because after today (Bush's FU to the NAACP), he's not getting any black votes in November.

Thanks for the post.

[Oddman]

24. Want scary?

Take a look at this poll!

http://pollingreport.com/

EEEEK!


A Complete Failure in Leadership
A Pathetic Excuse for a pResident

[fujiyama]

26. I really am skeptical

whether more people are supportive of Powell being on the ticket than McCain. McCain appeals to independants more than Powell does IMO. I think he could draw many more independants than Powell could, simply because of Powell's association with the failed administration.

Powell's problem is that he might help take some African American voters (especially in states we need to win like MI and PA). However, I don't think he'll want to do it. I heard he was thinking of leaving anyways. McCain also won't do it. He's stated he's not interested a million times and he might have been able to last time if he wanted.


Actually that poll is encouraging in many ways. If we are to believe that McCain is one of the most popular politicians in the country (and I wouldn't doubt that he is), and a Bush/McCain ticket is beating Kerry/Edwards by only two points, then we are doing really well.

[DaveSZ]

29. His approval rating is more indicative I think of how things will go

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Current Poll Numbers

Job Approval:

Approve: 48.2% up 1.2% from 47.0%

Approve: 48% Newsweek 07/09/04
Approve: 48% Time 07/08/04
Approve: 50% Associated Press - Ipsos 07/07/04
Approve: 45% NBC News 07/06/04
Approve: 50% Annenberg 06/30/04



If he's over 50% he'll probably win.

This is why we need the American public to know the truth about the child torture.

We need to repudiate that 100%.

[shraby]

31. Bush probably snubbed the NAACP

because he figures Diebold will make up the difference. If Diebold is disabled by Bev, he'll declare martial law, have no election and win by default.