A quick example to show how F9/11 could change the election..

[TruthIsAll]

Lets see how this plays out in actual numbers.

Assume the electorate is split 50/50 beteween Dems and Repubs. Lets ignore independents by assuming that they split their vote between Dems and Repubs.

Also assume that as a result of having seen, read or heard about F9/11, for every 100 voters:

ONE Repub switches to Kerry.
ONE Repub stays home and does NOT vote.
ONE person, who never votes, decides to vote for Kerry.

Subtract TWO Repubs, the one who switched and the other who stays home. There are now 48 Repubs.
Add TWO Dems, the one Repub who switched and the new voter. We now have 52 Dems.

So there you are. The Dems pickup a net 4 votes. From 50/50 we have gone to 52/48. That's a SOLID, though not spectacular win. In fact, that takes us halfway to a landslide of 54%/46%.

Of course, we have not considered many other factors which would add votes to the Dems. No need to go into them here.

[mhr]

1. Let's Hope!

eom

[tinanator]

2. considering the numbers who gave up on GW before F-911

Youll get a much more startling victory than that.
Always keep the Bush-binLaden business ties in their face, it is the executioner's axe.

[Robbien]

3. I really believe F-911 is reaching those people who usually do not vote

These people will be the ones who cannot help but vote now. These new voters are going to help a lot in changing the picture.

[lovedems]

4. And the young voters who are voting for the first time this year

The 18-24 crowd I think are highly likely to see the film and realize their future if Bush gets 4 more years.

I have a cousin who is 18 and he and all of his friends went to see the movie. None of them plan to vote for Bush, even ones with republican parents. This will be the first time they have voted and they are all very excited to vote.

[NMDemDist2]

5. that is the magic bullet we need-if every one of us registered

5 or even 3 new voters and kept in touch and got them to the polls it would be a landslide


who do YOU know that doesn't vote? and what have you done about it?

[rman]

6. 52/48 can easily be manipulated

at least locally there have been larger differences between expected/predicted outcome and actual result (ask Bev).

On the upside, i think the number of pro Dem switched and new voters is larger then your esimate.