CNN New Poll Numbers Here: Kerry 50, Bush 46

[VolcanoJen]

Just reported on "Inside Politics." No link yet; I copied the numbers from the TV screen, thanks to Tivo. :D

CNN/USAToday/Gallup Poll

July 8-11 Sampling error +/- 3.5% pts

Kerry 50%
Bush 46%

Likely Voters Choice Before and After Edwards Pick

BEFORE
Kerry 47%
Bush 47%

AFTER
Kerry 50%
Bush 46%

Bill Schneider also reports that Kerry/Edwards are now leading in four major polls, which to him is proof that at least some bounce has occurred.

Kerry/Edwards Bounce, Broken Down Into Categories:

Gender

Men +1
Women +4

Then, the Generation Gap... I think this is HUGE:

Under 50 +10
50 and Older -5

Geographical:

South 0
Non-South +4

Look at this Rural bounce, though:

Urban +7
Suburban -4
Rural +13

Political Ideology

Conservatives 0
Moderates +5
Liberals +6

[displacedtexan]

1. Enough to win...

... not enough to keep repukes from cheating AGAIN!

[luaneryder]

8. That's the rub isn't it?

[Generator]

2. Yeah baby!

I pretty much try to ignore the polls, but hey, it's still nice.

Picking Edwards was a smart move by Kerry.

Loved Edwards on 6O minutes, and frankly, was most impressed with the "little women." Teresa tells it like is and Elizabeth is smart as a whip.

[phillybri]

3. How did Judy Woodslut take the news...

Has she downed the strychnine yet?

[59millionmorons]

4. Yes

This confirms that the Ipsod/reid poll was an extreme outlier. But then again this same poll was way way way off on there predictions for the Canadien races.

[calico1]

13. How far were they off in the Canadian election?

[59millionmorons]

14. way off

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040625.wxelecmain25/BNStory/specialDecision2004/

[Beetwasher]

5. Nice, Now is the Time To Really Kick it Up a Notch!

and kick Smirky/Snarly in the balls!

We've hit the 50% mark people and we're outside MOE! That's HUGE!!!

[59millionmorons]

10. Also hit 50 in another poll

I believe it was newsweek.

[TruthIsAll]

19. NOT outside MOE. Kerry needs a 7 point lead (2*3.5)

MOE = 3.5

Kerry 50 means Kerry can be as high as 53.5, as low as 46.5
Bush 46 means Bush can be as high as 49, as low as 43.

Kerry needs a 7 point led to be outside MOE.

[Beetwasher]

22. This would be considere outside MOE

He's up by 4 and MOE is 3.5. That's outside MOE...I understand what you're saying regarding the highs and lows, however, this is technically outside of MOE with these types of polls...I think (could be wrong!)

[TruthIsAll]

26. Correction to my last post. This is the definition of MOE.

The MOE is the total range on either side of the poll in which we can expect the actual results to fall for a given probability (usually 95%).

For instance, we have Kerry ahead by 50-46, with a 3.5% MOE on each side of the poll.

Thus, if the election were held today, there is a 95% probability that Kerry would receive between 46.5% and 53.5% of the vote.

There is a 2.5% probability he would get higher than 53.5%.
There is a 2.5% probability he would get lower than 46.5%.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

24. More than 3.5% undecideds here

and that clinches it. :)

[Walt Starr]

6. Kerry needs to go to *at least* 54%

to be in a comfortable enough lead in order to counter the GOP cheating.

[Kahuna]

7. Awww. How did Judy and Candy take it?

:evilgrin:

[Lex]

15. hee hee

:toast:

[VolcanoJen]

16. No word from "I Love Candy" Crowley, but Judy wasn't happy.

She said, "All right!" and moved right into a story about the Latino vote in Arizona.

By the way, we're seriously making gains in Arizona... it's absolutley up for grabs.

[Zomby Woof]

28. I am making sure of that!

;-)

[Beetwasher]

9. BTW, Are these CNN/Gallup Numbers?

If so, this is even bigger given their constant Bush slant!

[VolcanoJen]

11. Yes, CNN/USAToday/Gallup.

:D

[Beetwasher]

17. Ahh! Saw After You Edited! This is Actually INCREDIBLE!

Gallup is a complete whore outfit with no credibility. If they are publicizing these numbers, I'm fairly certain they are MUCH worse for the admin. Their polls are only reliable in that you can rely on them to whore unabashedly and slant them as much as possible for the admin.

[Lex]

12. And "undecideds" historically break 60-80% for the new guy, not incumbent.

I learned that from DU'er TruthIsAll.

[Frangible]

18. (in a Hugo Weaving voice)

"Tell me, Mr. Anderson... what good are poll ratings... if there is no election?"

[Triana]

20. The Repugs See the Polls...

...and they're raising us one delayed (or cancelled) election, in order manipulate things so that bu$hit 'wins'. ¿

...or they may trot binLaden out of Pakistan/Afghanistan sometime in October - or both.

...the weasels are NOT going to sit there and let Kerry win fair and square - they're going to pull every trick in and out of Hitler's book to prevent it - margins of error or none.

...if they can't CHEAT again to get him reselected, they've gone to plan B (and C)

[number6]

21. this is why the election must be postponed

!! Bush could lose !!

oh my gawd terrorist attact !!

run hide stop voting - give up your rights

[TexasSissy]

23. I fear that you are right. The GOP must not be allowed to get away withit

[wishlist]

25. I saw Kerry 50%, Bush 45%, Nader 2% on CNN when Nader included!

Nader is sinking like a rock according to the chart they showed and Bush dropped 1 pt with Nader included, Kerry stayed at 50%!!!!!!

[Kukesa]

27. Hooray! Kick, too. n/t