Bad news out of NC, new poll

[newsguyatl]

a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll will show bushco. leads by a whopping 14 points there -- POST edwards decision.

not sure why the sudden surge in support. i'm hoping it was just a skewed base of respondents.

no link yet, it will release at 8pm tonight.

[MattNC]

1. 14????

I have a hard time believing that. The momentum here for Kerry/Edwards has obviously been incredible over the last few days.

[Sweetpea]

2. i bet cuz of gay marriage.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. They obviously disqualified all laid off textile workers

as respondents.

[porphyrian]

90. Maybe not intentionally...

...but if this was a telephone survey, like most are, there's a good chance people unable to pay their phone bill, or who are out looking for a job rather than answering their phone, were not included.

[spanone]

4. I have a hard time believing that.

Silly without a link.

[newsguyatl]

9. silly without a link?

are you insinuating that i'm lying and that a link that shows you the same numbers i'm telling you would somehow make it all make sense?

and =i'm= silly?

[spanone]

13. I would like to know the facts before I get pissed. It would make more

sense to know who did the poll, where it was etc.etc.

[KittyWampus]

43. Well, It'd Be NICE To See How Many Were Polled

and if they were likely voters etc.

Damn :eyes:

[AndyTiedye]

5. Gallup is using Diebold Software for Polling

[ikojo]

6. I wonder how the question was phrased when

asking who they preferred?

You know I have NEVER been called for a presidential poll.

[blm]

7. I call HORSESHIT POLL! It will be "likely voters' who skew Republican

because the pollsters only count people with a track record of voting and most of those are Republicans. They automatically toss out new voters and those who have voted infrequently.

[comsymp]

82. Looks like you nailed it-

Likely voters, indeed. Strangely, among Registered Voters, it's basically unchanged (within MOE of previous polls), at 49-42.

[Nederland]

125. Unfortunately

Likely voter polls are much more accurate than registered voter polls.

[tom_paine]

8. I now believe the Busheviks have forced Sea Changes in Polling

the same as they have on the media.

By a combination of Infiltration, Mockingbirding, and of course creating their own Sub-Organizations to launder Party Lies and write the backstories for Party Fraud.

I believe Bushevik Fraud (at least, at the 2000 level, not yet caught up with 2002 or what's coming) is now essentially written into polling procedures.

This is speculation, but is more than in keeping with previous Bushevik behavior and plots.

[NoBorders]

11. a MoveOn.org poll?

I've been wondering about that myself. It would be interesting if an organization like moveon.org ran some polls.

[louis c]

36. No way, I don't believe it

it defies the trends in every other poll since Edwards' addition.

Something is wrong with this picture./

[Eric J in MN]

30. I think part of the problem is weighting polls by party affiliation.

Suppose 60% of respondents say, "I'm a Democrat and I'm voting for Kerry," and 40% say, "I'm a Republican and I'm voting for Bush."

Some pollsters will assume that there are an equal number of Democrats and Republicans, so the sample was bad, and they will 'weight' their results to say there is a 50-50 tie.

[yardwork]

63. I've thought this for a long time, but I don't know all the techniques.

What is Mockingbirding?

The poll issue has a conflict of interest built right in. Most of the polls are run by organizations that have some arm involved in advertising. For example, when Newsweek runs a poll, is it in their interest to piss off the president, who happens to have millions of dollars poised to spend on TV advertising? No, it is not. So the polls will continue to reflect approximately what the big spenders want them to reflect.

Suddenly Kerry has a lot more money than expected, so now his advertising dollars are in play as well. Is it any surprise that the polls show them tied?

No, it is not a surprise.

[tom_paine]

68. Operation Mockingbird. Almost certainly real.

Carl Bernstein talked about it.

Enjoy your enlightenment!

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&q=%22Operation+Mockingbird%22+Bernstein

[jackstraw45]

10. The stealing of the election begins?

Laughable poll results if true.

This is a JULY (Not October) rally in NC:

[Literate Tar Heel]

12. hmm

could be that all the textile workers and African-Americans who have lost their jobs can't afford to have a phone anymore and therefore can't be called ... I doubt gay marriage alone would give him that big a margin ... hell, he only won here by 13 points in 2000 when everyone in N.C. hated Gore because he was too "intelekchal" and hated Lieberman because he was "one o' them damn Jews" ... maybe they assumed that the thousands who are in Iraq from Fort Bragg and other bases will all vote for Bush because the military just loves Bush so much for sending them off to die ... very strange sounding poll though ... oh, I know ... they must have made all the calls Saturday afternoon when half the state was at the Kerry/Edwards rally in Raleigh, so none of the Democrats were home to answer their phones

[nolabels]

28. Hello, I can't talk now, just lost my job and the ability ................

to pay my phone bill. If you leave your name and number after the beep we will get back to you after a new job is found.......... BEEP



http://www.timvp.com/laughin.html

[wishlist]

14. Bush ad blitz in N.C.- says Kerry will raise taxes by 900 Billion in his

first 100 days, and even more later! And no one in my local media is questioning those figures. I hope my fellow N.Carolinians aren't THAT stupid to believe those Bush ads. The Bush ads are totally negative and very hard hitting about Kerry's "votes against soldiers and veterans and the Laci Petersen act". Kerry needs to get out an anti-Bush ad refuting the tax claim and pointing out how Bush has such a poor record that Bush can't run on his own record and can only distort Kerry's to scare people.

At least the overwhelming majority of folks in my neighborhood, family and circle of friends and acquaintances are strongly anti-Bush and pro- Kerry/Edwards.

[Sparky McGruff]

52. I don't have 900 billion dollars!

I can't afford to pay 900 billion dollars every 100 days! Gee, I better vote for Bush!

He'll kill those arabs, and give me a tax cut! And the deficit will come down! And he'll give everyone a cute litte kitten!

[Dookus]

15. Is there a link yet?

I can't find anything.

[newsguyatl]

20. not yet, dookus

but as soon as i can find one, i'll post it here, just for you.

[Dookus]

70. sweet of you to offer...

but where's the link?

I'm curious about the methodology and the question(s).

[NewYorkerfromMass]

72. Here: Bush leads 54 - 39

John Kerry gets a boost nationwide from his choice of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as running mate. But Edwards fails to make his home state competitive, the first in a series of state-by-state polls by USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup shows. (Related item: Latest poll results)
Democratic hopes that Edwards' selection would broaden the list of battleground states in the South were dented by the survey. In it, President Bush and Vice President Cheney hold a commanding 54%-39% lead among likely voters in North Carolina.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-07-12-poll-election_x.htm

[comsymp]

78. Well Hell, here's the problem:

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 National Adults, aged 18+, conducted July 8-11, 2004.

They called while 25K NC Dems were at the Kerry/Edwards rally...

Seriously, this poll is totally counterintuitive- how, absent any significant news development, could adding a Native Son to the ticket cause an 8-9% drop in one week?

ON EDIT: Looks like the distinction is between registered and likely voters. Previous polls simply mention "voters." This poll still shows registered voters splitting 49-42, Bush. That's w/in the MOE of other recent (pre-Edwards) polls. Still strikes me as odd that Kerry got either 0 or -2 bounce among Registered's from choosing Edwards.... and am curious about their formula for determining likelies.

[Tweed]

91. 25,000 Democrats were at a rally for three days? 25,000 is nothing...

Wow, that's quite an accomplishment to hold a rally for three days. Also, North Carolina has over 8 million people. 25,000 is less then 1% of the entire state population. At most, the rally caused the pollsters to miscount 5 people. That's at most. The rally likely didn't cause anyone to not answer their phone. Maybe this has to do with those rumors that John Edwards wouldn't win the Senate if he ran there again. Let's put our energy on Virginia.

[comsymp]

95. Literal, much?

(hint: the word "seriously", which began the next statement, was intended to imply that the preceding comment wasn't intended as such)

Thanks for the math lesson. Here's another interesting number- 648 (likely voters polled) = 2% of 25,000, or .02% of the population. Just throwing numbers out. I am, however, interested in the basis for your assertion that 5 people, "at most", could have been miscounted due to the event.


I don't recommend believing every rumor you hear/read, either. Granted, a year or so ago Edwards' reelection wasn't expected to be a shoo-in but we weren't pulling our black crepe out of mothballs, either.

And you're welcome to put your energy into VA or anywhere you please. I have my own priorities.

[Lex]

96. I'm wit' you on this, comsymp!

Fellow North Carolinian here, fellow HRC member too! :toast:

[comsymp]

99. Hiya, Lex!

I definitely know why you are! Have followed your posts for some time with interest and appreciation though I'm embarrassed to say that, until the other day when I checked your profile for location, I had been making a wrong assumption about your gender...

[Lex]

100. hee hee. Oops.

Lex = latin for "law", but it sounds like a guy's name!

[Tweed]

98. Do elections happen in unreal worlds?

Don't you have to be realistic in the 'real' world?

Thanks for the internet message board protocol lesson.

I don't listen to every rumor I hear. An English major like yourself, I just figured you would be able to pick up my jest. It's not a rumor as much as it is a fact by the numbers I've seen. It wasn't expected to be a shoo-in is the point. Even some Democrats didn't support him.

Getting off on the wrong foot aside. I like your Human Rights sig. Good luck with North Carolina. I hope you and the NC Dems can salvage a miracle. Thanks for the effort!

[comsymp]

102. FWIW, I have my own issues w/Edwards

Primarily, that he essentially neglected his home state while focusing on NH, IA, etc., for the past year or so. IIUC, this is one of the reasons his reelection was in question.

Additionally, his record is a little conservative for my taste but it's unlikely that NC will be sending Bernie Sanders' or Barney Frank's ideological twins to DC any time soon, so ya gotta make the best of what you've got.

I genuinely believe that there's an error in this poll, based in part on other polls over the past couple months which consistently suggest a different scenario. Other locals, even the less-than-reliable CW, see a much closer race than this poll would indicate. Hell, we could all be wrong- it's happened before.

And as for the wrong foot- today's one of those days when I feel like the tightassed lawyer in Erin Brockovitch- two wrong feet in f-- ugly shoes. Short on both sleep and caffeine.

(ps- LMAO @ "English major"!)

[Tweed]

106. I'd buy you a cup of coffee

and I'm sure we would talk about great things that Amnesty and Human Rights Campaign were up to if I worked with you. Hope your day picks up! :hi: The only poll that will prove someone correct comes Nov. 2nd.

[RummyTheDummy]

114. Please stop repeating Repuke talking points!

Erskine Bowles is favored to win the Senate seat Edwards is giving up and he is a Dem. It stands to reason that if a stiff like Bowles could win, Edwards could win too.

[Tweed]

122. I'm just saying a fact n/t

[mzmolly]

16. Well, I think we have to give it a while.

:shrug:

[WilliamPitt]

17. No surprise

Jesse Helms country, folks. Brush up on your coping skills. The south is a lost cause in this election.

No offense at all meant to NC DUers. It is what it is.

[Literate Tar Heel]

18. offense taken n/t

[WilliamPitt]

19. Cope n/t

[Literate Tar Heel]

22. how do I cope?

I guess I just shouldn't vote

[WilliamPitt]

25. Yeah, that makes sense

:)

Seriously, confession time for me. My understanding of the 2004 odds in the south comes from my dad, who is chairman of the Dem party in Alabama. We've been burning up the phone lines lately, since Edwards came on board. He is despondently confident that North Carolina isn't in play, even with Edwards. I tend to trust his opinion; he has worked for every Democratic presidential candidate since Bobby, and I have almost never seen him figure electoral politics wrong. When I say stuff like the above, I am basically parroting his wisdom. I'll be pleased as punch to be wrong.

As for "not voting," that would be a bad thing. My understanding of the Kerry strategy is to get 40-45% of the popular vote in the south as a whole, so as to bolster the national popular vote numbers. States like West Virginia, Missouri and Arkansas are definitely in play. So take all this for what it's worth.

[Tweed]

56. Don't forget to vote for local races! n/t

[mmonk]

101. I don't plan to vote for governor (Easley)

He didn't show for the Kerry/Edwards rally. He will not get my vote since he seems to take Dem votes for granted in trying to appeal to the wingnuts. The dem party is a pathetic wimpy frightened little party with the only principles adhered to is to their own selfish ambitions.

[Ripley]

89. Alabama and North Carolina are not even close.

I live in bama and my entire family lives in NC. They are very different....so I don't know how your Dad, no matter how clued in he is in this state can speak for that state.

[Lex]

39. I refuse to roll over and give up and 'cope.'

I want my country back too much! I will never throw my hands up--too much to do.

Erskine Bowles is still up by several percentage points and his (R) opponent is not getting any traction against him for John Edwards' old Senate seat.

I'll keep fighting and phone-banking and helping the Democratic Party in this state. To do otherwise would be letting the repukes have what they want without a battle, and I can't do that.

Hell no, I won't cope--I go down fighting the repukes, even in a sinking ship.

Bet on it.

[WilliamPitt]

40. See post 25

[Lex]

46. Thanks, Will, I had read post 25 before I wrote mine.

NC may surprise you, and your Dad.

[Ripley]

88. My family lives in NC...

And you are absolutely correct. NC is in play big time and anyone saying "forget the south" again, is just drinking the strong stuff too early in the morning.

[MattNC]

21. i disagree to some extent

First, I wouldn't call the south a total lost cause. I think we can possibly pick-up two, maybe three states.

As far as this being Helms country, it depends on what part of the state you go to. There are some parts of the state where the Dems are doing a good job. But, overall, this state is not as far right as it used to be, although the majority of it of course is still conservative.

[Wind Dancer]

24. Don't give up on NC!

I volunteered at that rally and talked with people who have been * supporters but wanted to hear what John Edwards had to say. Many of the people were upset with military funding, unemployment, etc. I wasn't expecting to see so many undecided attending, also many high school and college students came who have never been to a rally before. People were asking lots of questions, there is a hunger here that I find encouraging.

It was hot and uncomfortable but 25,000 people attended, more people are volunteering at the campaign center, so don't give up yet!

[Lex]

41. Don't listen to the Dems who want you to give up!

I won't give up. No how, no way.

[Wind Dancer]

51. Not a chance - I'll fight to the bitter end!

This is the most important election of our lifetime!

[yardwork]

66. You tell em Lex!

I'll fight anyone who writes off my adopted state!! Yeah! Put em up - put em up!

[comsymp]

45. Bullshit, Will

The last 2 months of polls show Kerry consistently within 5-6 points of Bush (from Mason-Dixon to Rasmussen the Wrong), then Edwards comes on board and overnight, the gap jumps to 14%? And you're ready to write off the entire South?

I've known you for over 3 yrs now- you're much smarter, and more skeptical, than that.

Also, try to remember that it's not only Jesse Helms country, but John Edwards country. And Jim Hunt country. And Eva Clayton Country. And David Price, Terry Sanford, Mel Watt, Wib Gulley, Dan Blue, and on and on. And on. Carrboro councilmembers pass a resolution in support of Freedom, I mean France. Raleigh councilmembers consider how to tell * to shove the PATRIOT Act. Chapel Hill is... well, Chapel Hill. F911 regularly sells out all over the state, including just outside Ft. Bragg.

And suddenly, Bush is up 14 points?

Somethin' ain't right.

[comsymp]

50. 5 min later, not allowed to edit

to say:

After reading #25, with all due respect to your Dad, something still stinks.

[yardwork]

65. Oh Yeah! All those names.....you must be my neighbor!

If the poll attempted to get an even number of Democrats and Republicans, then the pollsters screwed up right there.

Most North Carolinians are registered Democrats, but a lot of those Democrats are slightly to the right of Attila the Hun. So a poll that attempts to weight Dems and Rethugs equally in NC will come out over-balanced on the conservative side.

Some of the new-comer Republicans in the state are more liberal than some Democrats. A lot of those new-comer Republicans are not very happy with Bush right now. They'll be joining lots of liberals in voting for Kerry.

Bush may win North Carolina, but it will be close, and he'll have to spend time and money here. Heh heh. That will take his time and money away from Ohio, and Michigan, and West Virginia, and some other states that are going to go blue this year....

[dsc]

47. Jesse Helms only got 52% of the vote

that hardly makes the whole state his country.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

62. I think you're wrong on this one.

[supernova]

84. No offense Will

but that's Bullshit. No disrepect to your dad here but he's not the expert on NC politics, just as I am not the expert on Alabama politics and wouldn't presume to tell them to "Brush up on your copying skills."

So don't patronize me or the rest of NC. I've been in the politics game for about 15 years. I've been a close student since Watergate.

There is definitely a shift going on here. It may be that people haven't decided what to do with their building resentment. Like I said on Sunday, there are more people in play this time, which *always* helps us Democrats.

[TexasSissy]

23. No link? Bush was leading by 7 points (Rasmussen) a wk ago, I think.

A 7 point bounce seems pretty high for one week, unless it's a different type of person polled (likely voters vs. registered voters). I'll wait to see the link.

But N.C. went for Gore in 2000 by 13 points. So I'd think Bush would win it this year, as well, with a smaller margin. This is not a "must win" state, but it'd be great if we did.

[newsguyatl]

26. yeh, no link yet unfortunately

i read it on the wires today, but it was embargoed till 8p EDT -- and now i'm home, so i don't have access to the wires. i hope a link will surface momentarily.

[Thrill]

27. I live in NC

This is a bullshit poll. I'll wait for the Charlotte Observer or Raleigh News Observer Poll.

Easley is kicking Repuke ass in the Polls for Governor and Bowles vs Burr won't even be close.

[Cha]

92. The repukes lie to keep from telling the truth and

if its their poll then it's a LIE!

[wishlist]

118. Dem Gov Easley got good media coverage this week for adding jobs

for the Asheville area by beating out 5 other states in recruiting a Swedish (I think) textile company to come here giving 70 people good paying jobs. Great P.R. for our area since so many jobs have been lost due to outsourcing.

[jmowreader]

57. It's fifteen electoral votes

Between the closed mills, the layoffs in other sectors--even Goodrich's airplane-brake plant is having troubles--and all of the troops coming home in bags, those 15 votes don't look so solidly Bush.

[TexasSissy]

108. I hope you're right. That'd be great. I heard on TV that NC hadn't

gone for a Democrat for Prez since 1980. Those are some big odds to overcome. But maybe with all that you mention, plus Edwards, we can squeek out a win there. 15 EV is nothing to sneeze about.

[Leilani]

115. 1980?

Ronald Reagan ran in 1980...did he lose to Jimmy Carter in N.C.?

[TexasSissy]

117. That is odd. Maybe they meant that STARTING with 1980,

N.C. had only voted Republican for President? Carter swept the south in his initial run in 1976, so that may have been the last time it voted Dem. But maybe it also went for Carter in 1980. I don't know. Like I say, I distinctly heard twice on TV a pundit say that N.C. hadn't voted for a Dem since 1980 (or maybe they said had voted strictly Repub since 1980....which means starting with 1980). Anyway, it's been a long time.

[Literate Tar Heel]

121. 1976

was the last year N.C. went for the Democratic candidate

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G04/President-1972-2000.phtml

[TexasSissy]

123. Thanks.

[Longhorn]

29. I'm not giving up on NC (though I may have to give up on Texas!)

But the country still looks pretty BLUE to me!



July 12 -- Kerry, 292; Bush, 246

www.electoral-vote.com

[Joanne98]

31. Cheney NC we don't need it.

No offense to NC DUer's :)

[Literate Tar Heel]

33. "Cheney NC"

hmm, sounds like us Tar Heels aren't too welcome here, regardless of our political stripes ... maybe I should find another message board that doesn't feel so harshly toward us

[GoneOffShore]

35. Hang in there

Welcome to DU Literate Tarheel.
There are some people here who speak first, and think later.

[calico1]

38. Hey, I like the Tarheel State!

My little sister works at Duke University. I've never been there but I plan on visiting her soon. Unfortunately when some people make sweeping comments like that they forget to remember that there are people involved.

[tblue37]

59. You are not North Carolina

I live in Kansas. Kansas will go to Bush. I will vote anyway, but I don't expect my vote to actually chaneg the fact that Kansas will go Republican.

If someone on this board were to complain about the fact that Kansas is a Republican state, or even say, "Cheney Kansas. We'll win without 'em!" I would not assume that they were saying that I, because I live in Kansas, am a waste or should be thrown away or disregarded.

Nor would I assume that they were saying "Cheney" at me. They are complaining about all the fools in the state, a clear majority, who will almost certainly vote for Bush.

I lived two years in North Carolina. But I don't think the remark about North Carolina means me.

I lived four years in Florida. But, hey, insult Florida if it goes Republican. I'm not taking it personally.

I lived three years in South Carolina. If it goes Republican, Cheney 'em.

I was born in Mississippi and lived my first 12 1/2 years in the South. I don't assume that people are insulting me when they complain about southerners who are too ignorant to vote their own interests. There a lot of southerners who are too politically and economically ignorant to vote their own interest. In fact, the majority of southerners probably fit that description.

But that would not be me. I assume that would also not be you or any other southerner or North Carolinian here on DU.

We shouldn't take everything as a personal insult when it clearly is not intended that way.

[comsymp]

48. Cheney yourself

No offense :)

-NC DUer

[mmonk]

103. What other states do we "not need"?

[abburdlen]

32. *if* the poll is accurate

it still isn't terrible news. The bush ads are running ever 10 minutes it seems. He is burning through that war chest.
While I'd love Kerry to win NC, I'm content that bush is having to spend resourses here.

[Trajan]

34. Dont believe it ...

[Lex]

37. Then how is it that Democrat Erskine Bowles is up by 10 pts for Sen seat?

I just can't believe this poll is an accurate reflection of the momentum the Democrats have in the state right now.

Not at all.

[LizW]

53. I don't believe it either, Lex

The major growing population centers of NC have gone more Democratic, or less Republican, almost without exception for the last four Presidential elections. I looked at the numbers myself this morning, and there's definitely a trend there.

I don't think this poll is quite right, but we'll see.

[CTLawGuy]

109. because people split their tickets

that's how North Dakota has 2 dem senators, and its lone Rep is a Dem, but still is a solid Bush state.

[Carolinian]

42. I don't believe those figures for a minute.

[Sugarbleus]

44. They puzzle me too.

This poll and that poll..blah blah. It's interesting and a help to some degree but what I don't get is HOW do polls really help in the end?

The polls haven't, obviously, chatted with EVERY single citizen living here! They poll a test sample; no one can say what the "unpolled" will do at election time so why do we care?

I signed up with Zogby so I get one of theirs' every so often. There must be a zillion polling orgs out there; it's like doing the tango--one leans to the left, one leans to the right, one leans this way or that............ geeez

[Lex]

49. I'd like to see more than one poll with those numbers

before I'll start putting any stock in it.

When's the latest Mason-Dixon polling. http://www.mason-dixon.com/about.cfm

Or the Elon Polling. http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/

Both of those firms do polling in this state.

[Sugarbleus]

58. Yep, get your point... I have a love/hate thing going on with Polls.

[Geo55]

120. Polls are like the weather report...

If you like what they're sayin' ...they're spot on.
If you don't , well , they get it wrong just 24hrs ahead of time sometimes.

Polls are good for sitting on.....oh no , that was the '20s

[defoliate_bush]

54. Not that big of a deal

If Kerry loses NC, it won't be the end of the world. What we really need is FL and the Midwest. The South (and I mean the real south, not Florida) will probably not be voting our ticket any time soon.

[King of New Orleans]

55. Can this whole thread by eviscerated?

It's pretty clear right now that the initial poster was mistaken or misread the wire.

[newsguyatl]

80. actually

i wasn't mistaken NOR did i misread a wire.

so can we just delete YOUR post?

actually i WAS off by one percentage point, he's actually leading by 15!

[leesa]

60. Why would anyone believe a CNN/USA Today/ Gallup poll?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

61. Your answer should be obvious...look who did the poll. It's crap.

[Hobarticus]

64. Only poll that matters is in November, folks....

No chance to pre-select your respondents, or skew the question...there' s only one of two answers they can give.

Nothing to see here, move along.

[Lex]

67. Polling trends in April, May, and June 2004 in North Carolina

June 23rd's Raleigh News & Observer:

" . . . North Carolinians' support for the war has dipped.

Fewer than half of voters surveyed say the threat posed by Iraq warranted going to war, according to a statewide poll conducted this month for a partnership of The News & Observer, WRAL-TV and WUNC radio.

That wasn't the case in N&O polls before the war and again in November and January. In November, 57 percent supported the invasion, and in January 58 percent did."

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/1353169p-7476410c.html

--------------------------

Mason-Dixon Poll: Bush Leads Kerry In N.C; Edwards On Ticket Makes It Even

POSTED: 3:24 pm EDT May 18, 2004

Republican incumbent George W. Bush leads Democratic challenger John Kerry in North Carolina, but according to a WRAL/Mason-Dixon Poll, if Kerry chooses Sen. John Edwards as his running-mate, the race in the state currently becomes a dead-heat.

http://www.wral.com/news/3319278/detail.html

-----------------------------

Elon Poll

Poll Results: April 26-29, 2004

* Bush’s overall approval rating drops 5.6 percent
* Jobs are top issue in U.S. Senate race

President Bush’s overall job approval rating in North Carolina has dropped 5.6 percentage points since February, and a larger percentage of North Carolinians are expressing unease about the war in Iraq, according to the latest Elon University Poll.

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/apr04.xhtml


------------------------------

[HFishbine]

77. "North Carolinians' support for the war has dipped."

Unless and until Kerry/Edwards give a clear answer on the war, they'll get no traction from this sentiment.

[maggrwaggr]

69. good God how stupid do you have to be to live in that state?

STUPIDEST STATE IN THE UNION

if that is true

[comsymp]

87. My IQ is 147

My brother's (also born & raised here) is 155. SO's is 140- also NC Native.

What's yours?

[omshanti]

97. Actually, the Triangle NC has the largest conc. of PhD's in the USA

I guess you have to be pretty stupid to get a PhD huh?
;-)

[defoliate_bush]

110. I hope not too stupid.

I'm in college there (App. State)

[mrboba1]

116. Cool!

That's where I went!

I lived in East Hall - heard about it?

[democracy eh]

71. patience

November is a looong way away

have hope, and work your arse off

[vetwife]

73. Up to you all Download the Voter registration and register voters

That is exactly what I am doing. I dowload Rock the Vote application and hand it out ask people for the info...family.....mostly and friends, give them the ammo of How bad off they are and then slap a stamp on the completed register to vote application and send it off. This time it requires leg work. Not all people have computers. All you have to do is go to any site The Guy James Show or any of our sites and just copy the applicaiton form. print it and give it to them.

[TOhioLiberal]

74. it's simple, really...

...NC is Edwards home state. Someone decided, either media or WH that it would be 'demoralizing' for the Kerry/Edwards ticket to be polling badly in NC...I mean really! In the national polls K/E is leading. Definitely no sale here...

Don't buy into this crud...lets stay focused.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

75. Actually, the poll shows Bush only leads by 6% among registered voters

49 to 43.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-07-12-poll-election_x.htm

[newsguyatl]

81. see below

[King of New Orleans]

85. Actually NY from Mass is correct

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-07-12-nc-poll.htm


It's 49-43 w/ 4% for Nader, which is actually within the margin of error.

Any presidential poll with that kind of gap between registered and "likely" voters means there is a fundamental error with the poll.


One odd thing is Gallup based it's poll on 50% voter turnout, whereas NC had a turnout of 58.9% and 58.8% the last two Presidential elections.

[newsguyatl]

86. not about the poll i was referencing

[King of New Orleans]

94. He referencing the same poll you are

he just got the info from USA Today instead of the wire report


http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-07-12-nc-poll.htm


I'd like to see somebody in the media force Gallup to explain the wide gulf between registered and what they call "likely" voters.

[calico1]

76. I hope no one adopts this attitude of

"Its useless, its hopeless, I might as well just stay home and not vote." I wonder if some of these polls are deliberately skewed to get just that kind of reaction? We have to stay focused. Why is Bush pouring money in ads into a State that is usually ignored? Why have the rallies in support of Kerry been so big? Ask yourselves that. Just as a lot of the news media is biased, so is, I'm afraid some of these pollsters. If Bush is ahead by 2 points, he leads. If Kerry is ahead by 5 its a dead heat. In the last election there was an online poll in the Boston Globe which had Bush wiping the floor with Gore. He was ahead by something like 70/30. In MA! We need to stay focused and not let ourselves get down. This is another tactic by Bush and his helpers. To get us down, depressed, hopeless, and hopefully get a lot of us to stay home on election day. Cave in and you are falling right into his plan.

[newsguyatl]

79. whew, finally, i can post the wire -- sorry for the delay

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
FOR RELEASE: Monday, July 12 at 8 pm


THIS IS A POLL OF VOTERS IN NORTH CAROLINA -- NOT THE WHOLE U.S.!!! TAKE CARE TO MAKE THIS CLEAR IN ALL SCRIPTS AND GRAPHICS.

Interviews with 848 registered voters in North Carolina, including 680 likely voters, conducted by telephone on July 9-11, 2004.

Most North Carolina voters like their home-state Senator, John Edwards, but his appearance on the Democratic ticket has not put the Tar Heel state in play. If the election were held today, 56% of likely voters in North Carolina say they would vote for Bush and Cheney; just 41% would pick the Kerry/Edwards ticket. One reason: even in North Carolina, most voters say that Kerry's choice of Edwards would not affect their vote. And if voters are still concentrating on the top of the ticket, that's bad news for the Democrats. Less than half of the state's voters have a favorable view of Kerry, and his favorable rating is six points lower than Bush's. Edwards is extremely popular in his home state, and his constituents say that he shares their values -- an important measure at a time when both parties are trying to use the word "values" as a wedge to help pry voters away from the opposition. North Carolinians also say Edwards cares about people and is not too liberal. A bare majority say that he has enough experience to be president if it becomes necessary -- not exactly a vote of confidence from the voters who know him the best. It all adds up to a solid lead for Bush in North Carolina and no evidence that Edwards has provided any additional support for Kerry in his home state. Statewide polls in June showed Bush with a lead of about five points among all registered voters. Even looking at registered voters in the current CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, Kerry faces a seven-point deficit (51%-44%) today. We know, however, that not all registered voters actually cast a ballot on election day, so the results for likely voters may provide a better measure of the strength the GOP ticket will exhibit in November.



CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
NORTH CAROLINA VOTERS
July 9-11
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Bush 56%
Kerry 41

Sampling error: +/-4% pts


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
NORTH CAROLINA VOTERS
July 9-11
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Bush 54%
Kerry 39
Nader 4

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats or George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans? Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates?


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
NORTH CAROLINA VOTERS
July 9-11
Opinion of Candidates

Favorable Unfavorable

Edwards 63% 29%
Bush 55 40
Kerry 49 43

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
NORTH CAROLINA VOTERS
July 9-11
Opinion of John Edwards

Favorable 63%
Unfavorable 29

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. John Edwards B. John Kerry C. George W. Bush


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
NORTH CAROLINA VOTERS
July 9-11
Does Edwards Have
Enough Experience?

Yes 51%
No 44

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
NORTH CAROLINA VOTERS
July 9-11
Does Edwards
Share Your Values?

Yes 58%
No 36

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
NORTH CAROLINA VOTERS
July 9-11
Does Edwards Care
About People Like You?

Yes 65%
No 29

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

QUESTION: Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each applies or doesn't apply to John Edwards. A. Shares your values B. Cares about the needs of people like you C. Has enough experience to be an effective president if it becomes necessary


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
NORTH CAROLINA VOTERS
July 9-11
Kerry's Choice of Edwards

More likely to vote
for Kerry 31%
Less likely to vote
for Kerry 10
No difference 57

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

QUESTION: Does having John Edwards as his running mate make you more likely to vote for John Kerry in November, less likely, or will it not have much effect on your vote?


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
NORTH CAROLINA VOTERS
July 9-11
Opinion of Edwards

Too liberal 38%
Too conservative 6
About right 45

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

[mmonk]

104. Seems strange to me

that now a poll comes out now with the widest margin yet. Defies all logic.

[supernova]

83. This is out of whack

with other recent polls which only have Bush in the lead by about 4-6 points.

I'd like to see the methodology of the Gallup poll before saying it is a realistic picture of NC at the moment.

[redqueen]

93. Any statisticians here? Doesn't the sampling error mean anything?

Please correct me if I'm mistaken, but I heard it was safe to pretty much ignore any poll with a sampling error above 2 points.

[Lex]

105. Sounds like the fact that it was a "weekend only" poll kills its validity.

[chimpy the poopthrower]

107. Why do you call this a "sudden surge"?

Are you looking at more than one poll? The link that someone else provided http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-07-12-nc-poll.htm, which also seems to be the one you are using, shows only current numbers. The fact that you refer to this as a "sudden surge" and refer to the selection of Edwards implies that you are looking at some pre-Edwards numbers. If so, please provide a link this time.

Keep in mind that in 2000, NC went 56-43% Bush-Gore. So 56-41% Bush-Kerry "likely" and 51-44% Bush-Kerry "registered" doesn't seem that unexpected.

[Literate Tar Heel]

111. "likely voters" ... I'm curious

about what criteria they used to determine who is a "likely voter" ... voted in the last election? voted in the last 3 elections? is age a factor? ... the latest Rasmussen poll in N.C. from June said that Kerry's strongest support in the state is from voters under 30 and given the large number of college students who may be voting in their first election and the fact that Hispanics are a very fast-growing segment of the population in the state, it sounds like there could be several percentage points there who are for Kerry that probably wouldn't fit under the "likely voter" category but who very well may vote ... also keep in mind that the state is about 22% African-American and there could be a larger turn-out among those who weren't terribly enthused (understandably) by Gore in 2000, but may be energized by the way Bush has slighted the NAACP and the fact that Edwards, whose message is very popular with them, is on the ticket ... most of these people would probably not be considered "likely voters" either

[rniel]

112. If true

Kerry and Edwards will just give up the fight for that state. There would be closer swing states to go after. But who knows if the polling is flawed or not.

[Lex]

113. Wrong. They will not "just give up the fight" for NC.

It will be a feather in John Edwards' cap if he can win this state, and he will fight for it. Count on it.

[wishlist]

119. I am hoping these poll results will cause Bush to cut back on N.C. ads

if they feel they have a comfortable lead, although it is possible that their over-the-top negative ad campaign could backfire if Bush's credibility keeps going down.

[Hutzpa]

124. WARNING!!!!1 THEY ARE PLANNING A FLORIDA STYLE.......

election, this is how they started in Florida, by putting out fake poll, the idea is to get people thinking its a close election...so we must not under any circumstances think for one second this is just a myth...well my friends it is not. The war planning has already started.

We Democrats have to be ready for anything, this is the set up before the election. They are not going to do the same at Florida, thats for sure, they are looking at different locations for their dealings and when you least expect it they will strike, thats how cunning they are.


beware the hides of November 2nd


:tinfoilhat: