April, May, and June 2004 polling trends in North Carolina.

[Lex]

June 23rd's Raleigh News & Observer:

" . . . North Carolinians' support for the war has dipped.

Fewer than half of voters surveyed say the threat posed by Iraq warranted going to war, according to a statewide poll conducted this month for a partnership of The News & Observer, WRAL-TV and WUNC radio.

That wasn't the case in N&O polls before the war and again in November and January. In November, 57 percent supported the invasion, and in January 58 percent did."

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/1353169p-7476410c.html

--------------------------

Mason-Dixon Poll: Bush Leads Kerry In N.C; Edwards On Ticket Makes It Even

POSTED: 3:24 pm EDT May 18, 2004

Republican incumbent George W. Bush leads Democratic challenger John Kerry in North Carolina, but according to a WRAL/Mason-Dixon Poll, if Kerry chooses Sen. John Edwards as his running-mate, the race in the state currently becomes a dead-heat.

http://www.wral.com/news/3319278/detail.html

-----------------------------

Elon Poll

Poll Results: April 26-29, 2004

* Bush’s overall approval rating drops 5.6 percent
* Jobs are top issue in U.S. Senate race

President Bush’s overall job approval rating in North Carolina has dropped 5.6 percentage points since February, and a larger percentage of North Carolinians are expressing unease about the war in Iraq, according to the latest Elon University Poll.

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/apr04.xhtml


------------------------------

[WilliamPitt]

1. Where are the polls reflecting the 'family values' issues

of guns, god, abortion, welfare, etc.?

In the south, the election won't turn on Iraq. It'll turn on the culture war.

[Lex]

2. Well, we'll see. We elected John Edwards to the Senate in spite of

the guns, gods, abortion, etc.

We have a Democratic governor, attorney general, sec'y of state, lt. governor, and the Dems still control the NC Senate (split evenly in the House.)

[yardwork]

4. A lot of military in North Carolina, and they are not happy.

I agree that the religious right is a big problem (you saw my thread) but there are other forces at work in North Carolina.

If * is counting on winning the state via the military vote, he may get badly burned.

[Lex]

6. Yes, right now Fort Bragg area has TWO theaters showing F 9/11.

Those folks are pissed.

[Ripley]

7. You know, just because your Dad live in Alabama...

You paint the entire region with one brush and that's wrong.

And you are also wrong about Iraq. The polls in Alabama also show the support has declined immensely here. Why? Because a disproportionate number of soldiers are from the south and they have either died or been maimed or have left there families and jobs for an extremely long time and it is DISRUPTIVE TO THE COMMUNITIES.

Take your snotty culture war argument to Ohio, pal.

[GumboYaYa]

8. Ripley, it is a common misconception that the "South"

is monolithic. There is a large contingent around here that ignores real electoral trends in specific states that favor the Dems so they can promote an ignore the South agenda that at its heart is as myopic as the "Southerners" they deride.

If you look at actual electoral trends you see that at a minimum, Louisiana and Arkansas should be strong opportunitties to flip from red to blue. West Virginia and Tennessee offer similar opportunities.

Mary Landreau won the Louisiana Senate race in 2002 by talking about trade and economic issues, not social issues.

[Ripley]

13. I guess I expected more from highly educated people...

Alabama has cracks in it from THE ECONOMY AND THE WAR, but I am in no way deluded into thinking it will vote D.

But as you say, about 5 Southern states are teetering and Kerry/Edwards better damn well step on the soil and talk about those issues. They're both religious men, against Gay marriage and I know Kerry shoots guns. So where exactly is there a distinction that would hurt these guys?

[WilliamPitt]

10. I was just asking a question

[supernova]

9. Will, consider letting go

of *your* sacred cows about the South. ;-)

[WilliamPitt]

11. Ommmmmooooooooo

:)

[mrboba1]

14. Has someone hijacked your screen name, Will?

Because you usually have very insightful arguments, but with respect to the south, you are unintelligibly ignorant.

We may not win NC, but it sure isn't going to be like 2000.

I have never, and I mean never seen so many democratic bumper stickers for President here in NC, including a "Veteran for Kerry" one last night.

Even if we lose every single state here in the south, * will have to use his money to hold them.

I am willing to put up with his crap on TV if it helps bring another state to the blue side!!

[WilliamPitt]

15. I'm approaching this election with cynicism fully in the fore

of my attitude. The Kerry crew is going to run hard in the south, but will do so full in the knowledge that winning in most states is a long shot.

I never said it would be like 2000.

[Renew Deal]

3. More republicans are home on the weekends

because they are home. They can't afford answering machines while they suck up all those welfare checks.

[Lex]

5. Everyone else out working their 2nd or 3rd jobs. n/t

[Wind Dancer]

12. The main issue I focus on when

talking to Republicans is the military. I always tell them how concerned I am with the military families and the cuts made from their benefits plus my concern with their safety. I reinforce the need for supplies, armor, etc. and their extended stay after fulfilling a volunteer period. It's the one thing I can get them to agree on so I know military is important in this state.

John Edwards is having an impact here. There are others who just flat out believe liberals are the evil of the earth and * could lock us all up, I stay away from them.

Thanks for the info, lex!