TIA Daily Election Simulation Forecast ! Kerry 52.25%, 330 EV

[TruthIsAll]

Daily Kerry Electoral Vote Simulation Forecast	

You're gonna love this.			
				
State Polls:	
     Adj Pct     Elect Votes		
Kerry	52.25%	330		
Bush	47.75%	208		
				
				
National Polls:				
July	Act.	Adj.		
Kerry	49.1	53.2	
Bush	45.0	46.8		
				
Avg. Bush Job Rating:48.0		
Undecided % to Kerry:70%(adj)	
				
Simulation Using Latest State Polling				
SIM	Electoral Votes			
1	335	Win		
2	318	Win		
3	313	Win		
4	316	Win		
5	338	Win		
6	322	Win		
7	341	Win		
8	358	Win		
9	329	Win		
10	339	Win		
Avg	330			
Win	10			
				
For the latest state polling data:				
 http://www.electoral-vote.com/				
				
For the latest national polling data:				
http://www.pollingreport.com	
......................................................
13 -POLL AVERAGE		Adj.	Adj.	
Month	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	40.8	51.6	-10.8	46.1	53.9	-7.7
Feb	47.4	46.0	1.4	52.0	48.0	4.1
Mar	47.4	44.7	2.6	52.9	47.1	5.8
Apr	46.5	45.3	1.2	52.2	47.8	4.5
May	46.5	44.4	2.1	52.9	47.1	5.7
June	46.7	45.7	1.0	52.0	48.0	4.0
July	49.1	45.0	4.1	53.2	46.8	6.5
						
						
IBD						
Jan 						
Feb	44	41	3	54.5	45.5	9.0
Mar	45	43	2	53.4	46.6	6.8
Apr	40	44	-4	51.2	48.8	2.4
May	43	42	1	53.5	46.5	7.0
June	43	44	-1	52.1	47.9	4.2
July	49	44	5	53.9	46.1	7.8
						
						
ABC						
Jan 						
Feb	52	43	9	55.5	44.5	11.0
Mar	53	44	9	55.1	44.9	10.2
Apr	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2
May	49	47	2	51.8	48.2	3.6
June	53	45	8	54.4	45.6	8.8
July						
						
						
AP						
Jan 	37	54	-17	43.3	56.7	-13.4
Feb						
Mar	45	46	-1	51.3	48.7	2.6
Apr	44	45	-1	51.7	48.3	3.4
May	43	46	-3	50.7	49.3	1.4
June						
July	45	49	-4	49.2	50.8	-1.6
						
						
NWK						
Jan 	41	52	-11	45.9	54.1	-8.2
Feb	50	45	5	53.5	46.5	7.0
Mar	48	45	3	52.9	47.1	5.8
Apr	50	43	7	54.9	45.1	9.8
May	46	45	1	52.3	47.7	4.6
June						
July	51	45	6	53.8	46.2	7.6
						
						
ARG						
Jan 	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8
Feb	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4
Mar	50	43	7	54.9	45.1	9.8
Apr	50	44	6	54.2	45.8	8.4
May	47	44	3	53.3	46.7	6.6
June	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4
July	49	45	4	53.2	46.8	6.4
						
						
NBC						
Jan 	35	54	-19	42.7	57.3	-14.6
Feb						0.0
Mar	45	47	-2	50.6	49.4	1.2
Apr						0.0
May	42	46	-4	50.4	49.6	0.8
June	47	47	0	51.2	48.8	2.4
July	54	43	11	56.1	43.9	12.2
						
						
FOX						
Jan 	32	54	-22	41.8	58.2	-16.4
Feb	43	47	-4	50.0	50.0	0.0
Mar	44	44	0	52.4	47.6	4.8
Apr	42	43	-1	52.5	47.5	5.0
May	42	42	0	53.2	46.8	6.4
June	42	48	-6	49.0	51.0	-2.0
July						
						
						
CBS						
Jan 	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6
Feb	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8
Mar	43	46	-3	50.7	49.3	1.4
Apr	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6
May	49	41	8	56.0	44.0	12.0
June	45	44	1	52.7	47.3	5.4
July	49	44	5	53.9	46.1	7.8
						
						
CNN/Gallup						
Jan 	43	55	-12	44.4	55.6	-11.2
Feb	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2
Mar	52	44	8	54.8	45.2	9.6
Apr	46	51	-5	48.1	51.9	-3.8
May	49	47	2	51.8	48.2	3.6
June	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2
July	50	46	4	52.8	47.2	5.6
						
						
PEW						
Jan 	41	52	-11	45.9	54.1	-8.2
Feb	47	47	0	51.2	48.8	2.4
Mar	48	44	4	53.6	46.4	7.2
Apr	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8
May	50	45	5	53.5	46.5	7.0
June	46	48	-2	50.2	49.8	0.4
July						
						
						
LA Times						
Jan 						
Feb						
Mar						
Apr	49	46	3	52.5	47.5	5.0
May						
June	51	44	7	54.5	45.5	9.0
July						
						
						
Zogby						
Jan						
Feb						
Mar	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4
Apr	47	44	3	53.3	46.7	6.6
May	47	42	5	54.7	45.3	9.4
June	44	42	2	53.8	46.2	7.6
July	46	44	2	53.0	47.0	6.0
						
						
CNN/Time						
Jan	43	54	-11	45.1	54.9	-9.8
Feb	48	50	-2	49.4	50.6	-1.2
Mar						
Apr						
May	51	46	5	53.1	46.9	6.2
June						
July	49	45	4	53.2	46.8	6.4
						
			
				
				
1) State and national polls polls are adjusted assuming that
70% of undecided voters will vote for Kerry.				
2) State polls are weighted by its voting percentage of the
total  nationwide vote for the last 3 elections.				
3) Third party candidates not considered.				
4) I assume Diebold/ES&S DO NOT steal it for Bush, so take
these results with a BBV grain of salt.				
5) The analysis is only as good as the quality of polling
data. The 13 national polls include CNN/Gallup, Fox and IBD.
It is fair to say that they have a tendency to pull Kerry's
average numbers down somewhat. The good news is that the Kerry
total % based on the state polls appears to track with the
national polls. Any divergence would raise eyebrows.				
6) A caveat: State polls may be somewhat outdated. National
polls are probably more current. 				
				
				
Over the last three presidential elections:				
Total Votes (millions):				
Dem: 138.75 (52.60%)				
Rep: 125.03 (47.4%)				
				
Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers applied to
probabilities of uncertain events to generate a range of
potential outcome scenarios. For this analysis, I used the
latest state poll numbers to generate a simulated election
probability analysis.				
				
In this case, an "event" is Kerry's share of a
state's popular vote. An "outcome" is the simulated
probability of Kerry winning the election, based on his total
electoral votes.  				
				
For example, if we run the simulation 10 times and Kerry's
electoral vote total exceeds 269 votes in 9 of the 10
simulations, we can estimate that he has about a 90%
probability of winning the election. I assume each poll has a
margin of error of +/-4%. I also assume an equal distribution
of outcomes around the mean polling estimate.								
				
We assign Kerry has a probability of winning each state, for
example:				
Kansas: .001				
New York: .999				
Florida: .807				
				
The probabilities are determined by the latest polling
numbers. 

For instance, if the latest Kansas poll is 60% for Bush, 40%
Kerry, then Kerry has an approximate 1 in 1,000 chance of
winning the state. 
			
On the other hand, if Kerry is ahead by 5% in Florida, then he
has an 80.7% probability of winning the state.				
				
Using Excel's random generator function, each calculation
returns a  random number X between 0 and 1. If X is less than
the probability of Kerry winning the state, the state goes to
Kerry, otherwise it goes to Bush.				
				
For instance, if X = .72 for Florida, then Kerry wins the
state. The random number X= .72 is LESS than the .807
probability that Kerry will win FL, based on the latest polls
which have him leading by 5%. 				
				
The simulation runs for all states. The electoral votes are
summed for those states which fall in Kerry's column. 				
				
Remember, we assume that Kerry's polling percentages numbers
are increased by allocating 70% of the state's undecided vote
in the simulation.
								
For example, assume Kerry is leading in a state by 46%-44%.
Allocating 70% of the 10% undecided voters  to Kery adds 7% to
his total, so the adjusted projection is Kerry 53%-47%.				

[qazplm]

1. I still think for this election

neither side will get any more than 60% of independents.

[TruthIsAll]

5. I allocate 70% of Undecided voters to Kerry, not Independents

tia

[Toronto Ron]

2. Question about an assumption of yours:

What's your basis for assuming that 70% of the undecideds will end up voting for Kerry? I've heard that undecideds tend to vote against the incumbent, but haven't seen any evidence to back that up; 70% seems quite high. I'm not doubting you, just curious.

[TruthIsAll]

3. I have read undecideds go for the challenger from 60-80%.

One forecast model assumes a 75% allocation of the undecided vote to the challenger. I don't have a link to this yet.

Here is a link to another article.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x576160

[Taylor Mason Powell]

4. Except in the current election...

"undecided" can fairly be said to be synonymous with "dumb as a bag of hammers." So it's anybody's guess what they'll do!! :-)

[bobbyboucher]

6. Right on, anyone who is undecided is

a fuckin' moran.

Undecided? whatthefuckever.

[ronnykmarshall]

7. Boy that will win 'em over!

[Taylor Mason Powell]

10. Normally I would agree with you...

...and certainly if I happen to run into any "undecided voters" I will take the time to try to politely convince them to vote Kerry. But these are not normal times. Someone would have to have been living under a rock for four years to be undecided at this point. As far as I'm concerned, you're either for Kerry or you're a sociopath or you're somewhat retarded. (I haven't decided which category the Naderites fall into!)

EDIT: Just to clarify, Nader voters in non-swing states are fine by me.

[TruthIsAll]

9. There are now about 6% undecided/Nader votes.

3% undecided
3% Nader

Naders numbers will drop to 1% and Kerry will get at least 2/3 of them.

The other 3% are undecided and will break for Kerry. Bank on it.

In fact, some of those currently for Bush will switch to Kerry. I can't model that, we will just have to keep tracking the polls.

[TruthIsAll]

8. The national polls are more recent than the state polls.

That could be one reason for the 1% difference between the national July polls and the State polls, of which most were done in June.

In the last two weeks Kerry has picked up support, probably due to the F9/11 release and naming Edwards VP. These are reflected in the national July polls.

[TruthIsAll]

11. Check out IBD: The undecided have moved to Kerry.

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll conducted TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. July 6-10, 2004. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.


"If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John Kerry or Republican George W. Bush?" Names rotated

.

George W. Bush John Kerry Not Sure .

% % %
7/6-10/04 44 49 7
6/14-19/04 44 44 13
6/8-13/04 44 43 14
6/1-6/04 45 44 12
5/12-18/04 42 43 16
3/8-11/04 46 43 12