An October Surpise involving Israel, Iran, Iraq and the US

[neverforget]

From David Hackworth's site Soldiers for the Truth

October Surprise by William S. Lind

Shortly before I left Washington for the summer (in the good old days whose passing I regret, few stayed in Washington in summertime), my informal intelligence network gave me an interesting report: Iran was beginning to mass troops on the Iran-Iraq border.

Did this portend overt Iranian intervention in Iraq? I said I didn’t think so. Events in Iraq are not unfavorable to Iran, and the risks of direct intervention would be great.

---snip----
If Israel plans to act this year, the Bush Administration may see a political opportunity it cannot pass up. At the very least it is likely to endorse the Israeli action, and it may well participate. So long as the neo-cons remain in power, Washington is little more than a suburb of Tel Aviv. And, in the Islamic world at least, an American disassociation from any action by Israel would not be believed. Israel and America are now perceived as one country.
---snip---
A far better response lies right next door: Attack the Americans in Iraq. America has about 130,000 troops in Iraq, a formidable army by local standards. But their disposition makes them vulnerable. Confronted by a guerilla war, they are spread out in penny packets all over the country. If Iran could mass quickly and use effective camouflage and deception to conceal at least the scope of its concentration, then suddenly attack into Iraq with two or three corps, we could face a perilous situation.
---snip---

This is a scary scenario as all hell would break loose in the Middle East :scared:

[maggrwaggr]

1. I predicted long ago that Bushco would goad Iran into doing this

so they'd have a new enemy, a new war, more contracts, more reasons to call off the elections, stay in power, create more chaos in the middle east, etc. etc. etc. etc.

It's all part of the PNAC goal.

If the media would only inform the American people about PNAC. It's ridiculous nobody even knows about this. It's like not reporting Bush is Bush Sr.'s son of something. The most BASIC OF FACTS.

[Spinzonner]

4. Nah

Karl Rover will veto it, at least until after the election

[HysteryDiagnosis]

6. 1. I predicted long ago that Bushco would goad Iran into doing this

And why not?? Chalabi may have done Tehran a favor getting a secular dictator out of the way... all sorts of things are possible now... shame.


http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2004/05/bec2d698-4b4f-459e-b851-63074be94448.html
In its 10 May issue, "Newsweek" magazine quoted U.S. officials as saying that electronic intercepts of discussions between Iranian authorities indicated Chalabi and his entourage were providing Iran with information about U.S. plans in Iraq.

I've got a bridge I'd like to sell the Americans...

[Soloflecks]

2. All hell would break loose.

Israel would probably lob a nuke or two on Tehran. Yeah, I think that could start armaggedon.

[maggrwaggr]

3. interesting, the guy who wrote it seems to be a conservative

very trusting of his own government, no?

[Hoping4Change]

5. I don't know about his being cinservative. Whenever I've

heard him he is very down on this war and I don't recall him happy with dimwit.

[robertpaulsen]

7. I wonder if this ties in with Plame's CIA work in the Middle East.

For those of you who haven't check it out yet, I suggest participating in the Plame thread when it reaches #7. You'll find that Plame was working on a sting operation involving the trafficking of WMD and that Iran is aware of the US bringing WMD into Iraq.

Please join us there! We look forward to sharing ideas with you.

[Old and In the Way]

8. Exactly right!.....this is a far more probable 'October Surprise'

I honestly think OBL is not amongst the living. I think he was probably dead around the time of Bush saying (almost exactly 6 months after 9/11) "Who cares if OBL is dead or alive. He's not a priority." Kidney failure, most likely. (BTW: What was the official testimony to the 9/11 commission regarding the CIA station chief meeting OBL in August? ) I suspect that OBL is in the bin Laden family plot somewhere in SA. Another "deal" dealt to a Carysle Partner.

But OBL is probably more important "missing" to Bush....it gives a virtual face (what a face) to our War on Terror (WOT) or Waste of Treasury, depending on your perspective. Bush's mantra these days is: "OBL did 9/11, we can't find him, so be very afraid they'll be another terror attack before November. But don't forget that Bush has made us more secure since 9/11."

9/11 happened because they wanted an attack. I think they did their best to stonewall intel in CIA/FBI at a level where they could maintain denial of pre-knowledge. People who were in a position to connect dots and send it up the channel....didn't. And they get promoted in the organization. Frasca/FBI? I'm sure there are others.

The point here is that this administration is good at not reacting and getting corporate media to play along. So would they react to pre-knowledge of a huge Iraqi sneak attack? They are on record that another attack will occur. But will it be here or in Iraq? Should an attack occur, I have no doubt that they will be prepared to exploit it as much as possible. They will also get a sympathetic Corporate Media to frame the war in most extreme nationalistic and dire rhetoric --> and use this message to reinforce our "wartime" pResident....draft, more troops, more discord in the world. Meanwhile, the price of oil increases.

Seems that this administration is quite capable of manipulating intel to suite their political needs between now and November. Their mounting legal problems could provide the motivation, as well. They could just as easily allow an attack against the troops to jumpstart their Pax Americana. These are indeed dangerous times.....

[neverforget]

10. I had forgotten about Israel wanting to take out Iran's nuclear reactor.

When I read this, I thought "damn, this is how Bush is going to bring about the Rapture." Add Israel into the maelstorm of a general Mid East war, then this will be a whole new ball game. Oh yeah, and think about the recruiting power for bin Laden if this were to take place.........

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

9. Wag the dog again.

Just like Iraq. More jubilant folks throwing flowers at the liberators.

They must really regret that mighty Burkina-Faso doesn't have oil.

[Must_B_Free]

11. No - Israel is the good guy, remember?

It's the Saudis that are bad bad bad.

[LittleApple81]

12. Did anybody read the article in The New Yorker magazine (for last week)

where they described the BIG PRESENCE OF ISRAELI intelligence in the Kurd areas of Iraq? AND APPARENTLY THE ISRAELIS DON'T GIVE A HOOT ABOUT WHAT AMERICA SAYS... surprise.
They are leading incursions into Iran to spy and check for nuclear installations.

[lottie244]

13. I believe it was posted here that Israel was in Iraq Kurd area before 9/11

Of course, this is news not fit to print in the US media.

[alfredo]

14. Iran could cut us off from our supply line in the Persian gulf

They could cut us in half right through the Shia region of Iraq.

This was one thing I feared.

Would North Korea take advantage of the situation?