Today, I am absolutely 99% SURE that Kerry will win BIG.

[TruthIsAll]

He has left Bush at the Gate.
And he will soon pull away.

No terror attack, no Bin Laden capture, no Jeb Bush in FL, no
Diebold, no attempt to cancel the election...nada will help
Bush.

He is T_O_A_S_T

Thank you, Michael Moore
Thank you, John Edwards
Thank you, Joe Wilson
Thank you, DU

For the latest state polling data:                            
 	
 http://www.electoral-vote.com/                         			

The TIA Electoral projection is based on the latest state
polls and allocates 70% of the undecided/Nader votes to the
challenger Kerry, 30% to Bush:
Elect Votes	
Kerry	323	52.72% of vote					
Bush	215	47.28% of vote					
Kerry wins	99 of 100 trial runs					

For the latest national polling data:                         
 	
http://www.pollingreport.com    							

National Polls:
	Current Proj%					
Kerry	49.11	53.23					
Bush	45.00	46.77					

Bush Rating Avg:	48%					
Undecided alloc. to Kerry:70%				
						
					
Last three presidential elections:                            
		
Total Votes (millions)                         				
Dem: 138.75 (52.60%)                            				
Rep: 125.03 (47.4%)                             						
						


13 -POLL AVERAGE						
	Actual Data		Projected Data		
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	40.78	51.56	-10.4	46.25	53.75	-7.49
Feb	47.44	46.00	1.44	52.03	47.97	4.07
Mar	47.36	44.73	2.64	52.90	47.10	5.80
Apr	46.45	45.27	1.18	52.25	47.75	4.49
May	46.50	44.42	2.08	52.86	47.14	5.72
June	46.70	45.70	1.00	52.02	47.98	4.04
July	49.11	45.00	4.11	53.23	46.77	6.47


IBD						
Jan 						
Feb	44	41	3	54.5	45.5	9
Mar	45	43	2	53.4	46.6	6.8
Apr	40	44	-4	51.2	48.8	2.4
May	43	42	1	53.5	46.5	7
June	43	44	-1	52.1	47.9	4.2
July	49	44	5	53.9	46.1	7.8


ABC						
Jan 						
Feb	52	43	9	55.5	44.5	11
Mar	53	44	9	55.1	44.9	10.2
Apr	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2
May	49	47	2	51.8	48.2	3.6
June	53	45	8	54.4	45.6	8.8
July						


AP						
Jan 	37	54	-17	43.3	56.7	-13.4
Feb						
Mar	45	46	-1	51.3	48.7	2.6
Apr	44	45	-1	51.7	48.3	3.4
May	43	46	-3	50.7	49.3	1.4
June						
July	45	49	-4	49.2	50.8	-1.6


NWK						
Jan 	41	52	-11	45.9	54.1	-8.2
Feb	50	45	5	53.5	46.5	7
Mar	48	45	3	52.9	47.1	5.8
Apr	50	43	7	54.9	45.1	9.8
May	46	45	1	52.3	47.7	4.6
June						
July	51	45	6	53.8	46.2	7.6


ARG						
Jan 	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8
Feb	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4
Mar	50	43	7	54.9	45.1	9.8
Apr	50	44	6	54.2	45.8	8.4
May	47	44	3	53.3	46.7	6.6
June	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4
July	49	45	4	53.2	46.8	6.4


NBC						
Jan 	35	54	-19	42.7	57.3	-14.6
Feb						
Mar	45	47	-2	50.6	49.4	1.2
Apr						
May	42	46	-4	50.4	49.6	0.8
June	47	47	0	51.2	48.8	2.4
July	54	43	11	56.1	43.9	12.2


FOX						
Jan 	32	54	-22	41.8	58.2	-16.4
Feb	43	47	-4	50	50	0
Mar	44	44	0	52.4	47.6	4.8
Apr	42	43	-1	52.5	47.5	5
May	42	42	0	53.2	46.8	6.4
June	42	48	-6	49	51	-2
July						


CBS						
Jan 	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6
Feb	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8
Mar	43	46	-3	50.7	49.3	1.4
Apr	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6
May	49	41	8	56	44	12
June	45	44	1	52.7	47.3	5.4
July	49	44	5	53.9	46.1	7.8


CNN/Gallup						
Jan 	43	55	-12	44.4	55.6	-11.2
Feb	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2
Mar	52	44	8	54.8	45.2	9.6
Apr	46	51	-5	48.1	51.9	-3.8
May	49	47	2	51.8	48.2	3.6
June	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2
July	50	46	4	52.8	47.2	5.6


PEW						
Jan 	41	52	-11	45.9	54.1	-8.2
Feb	47	47	0	51.2	48.8	2.4
Mar	48	44	4	53.6	46.4	7.2
Apr	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8
May	50	45	5	53.5	46.5	7
June	46	48	-2	50.2	49.8	0.4
July						


LA Times						
Jan 						
Feb						
Mar						
Apr	49	46	3	52.5	47.5	5
May						
June	51	44	7	54.5	45.5	9
July						


Zogby						
Jan						
Feb						
Mar	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4
Apr	47	44	3	53.3	46.7	6.6
May	47	42	5	54.7	45.3	9.4
June	44	42	2	53.8	46.2	7.6
July	46	44	2	53	47	6


Time						
Jan	43	54	-11	45.1	54.9	-9.8
Feb	48	50	-2	49.4	50.6	-1.2
Mar						
Apr						
May	51	46	5	53.1	46.9	6.2
June						
July	49	45	4	53.2	46.8	6.4
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….						
     	EV	Proj.	Spread Prob(win)		
AL	9	45	-10	0.010		
AK	3	40.7	-18.6	0.001		
AZ	10	47.6	-4.8	0.221		
AR	6	50.6	1.2	0.558	<<<	
CA	55	57.2	14.4	0.990		
CO	9	49.3	-1.4	0.414		
CT	7	62.6	25.2	0.990		
DE	3	57.1	14.2	0.990
DC	3	90.4	80.8	0.990
FL	27	53.3	6.6	0.884<<<
GA	15	45.9	-8.2	0.010
HI	4	60.9	21.8	0.990
ID	4	39	-22	0.001
IL	21	60	20	0.990
IN	11	44.4	-11.2	0.001
IA	7	51.5	3	0.673<<<
KS	6	41.6	-16.8	0.001
KY	8	45.3	-9.4	0.010
LA	9	49	-2	0.375
ME	4	52.3	4.6	0.769
MD	10	58.6	17.2	0.990
MA	12	66.3	32.6	0.990
MI	17	54.2	8.4	0.975<<<
MN	10	53.9	7.8	0.950<<<
MS	6	36.3	-27.4	0.001
MO	11	52.1	4.2	0.750<<<
MT	3	42.8	-14.4	0.001
NE	5	36.5	-27	0.001
NV	5	51.4	2.8	0.654<<<
NH	4	56.7	13.4	0.990<<<
NJ	15	56.6	13.2	0.990
NM	5	55.3	10.6	0.990<<
NY	31	66.4	32.8	0.990
NC	15	43.1	-13.8	0.001
ND	3	37.2	-25.6	0.001
OH	20	51.1	2.2	0.615<<<
OK	7	35.2	-29.6	0.001
OR*	7	56.2	12.4	0.990
PA	21	54.1	8.2	0.975<<<
RI	4	64.2	28.4	0.990
SC	8	47.5	-5	0.202
SD	3	44.8	-10.4	0.001
TN	11	50.8	1.6	0.577<<<
TX	34	42.6	-14.8	0.001
UT	5	29.7	-40.6	0.001
VT	3	60.1	20.2	0.990
VA	13	48.5	-3	0.317
WA	11	55.1	10.2	0.990<<<
WV	5	47.2	-5.6	0.164
WI	10	55.1	10.2	0.990<<<
WY	3	30.8	-38.4	0.001
	538			0.000



Forecast EV Simulation Using State Polling Data			
Trial	Electoral Votes		
Run	Kerry	Bush	Winner
1	311	227	Kerry
2	318	220	Kerry
3	337	201	Kerry
4	340	198	Kerry
5	370	168	Kerry
6	353	185	Kerry
7	341	197	Kerry
8	342	196	Kerry
9	316	222	Kerry
10	316	222	Kerry
11	349	189	Kerry
12	354	184	Kerry
13	323	215	Kerry
14	367	171	Kerry
15	336	202	Kerry
16	332	206	Kerry
17	325	213	Kerry
18	345	193	Kerry
19	344	194	Kerry
20	350	188	Kerry
21	371	167	Kerry
22	333	205	Kerry
23	340	198	Kerry
24	349	189	Kerry
25	340	198	Kerry
26	352	186	Kerry
27	368	170	Kerry
28	341	197	Kerry
29	306	232	Kerry
30	349	189	Kerry
31	332	206	Kerry
32	346	192	Kerry
33	315	223	Kerry
34	352	186	Kerry
35	327	211	Kerry
36	357	181	Kerry
37	328	210	Kerry
38	346	192	Kerry
39	324	214	Kerry
40	308	230	Kerry
41	323	215	Kerry
42	306	232	Kerry
43	308	230	Kerry
44	342	196	Kerry
45	348	190	Kerry
46	301	237	Kerry
47	315	223	Kerry
48	325	213	Kerry
49	344	194	Kerry
50	275	263	Kerry
51	282	256	Kerry
52	337	201	Kerry
53	317	221	Kerry
54	277	261	Kerry
55	337	201	Kerry
56	308	230	Kerry
57	331	207	Kerry
58	288	250	Kerry
59	310	228	Kerry
60	321	217	Kerry
61	331	207	Kerry
62	293	245	Kerry
63	357	181	Kerry
64	353	185	Kerry
65	321	217	Kerry
66	321	217	Kerry
67	334	204	Kerry
68	354	184	Kerry
69	344	194	Kerry
70	332	206	Kerry
71	324	214	Kerry
72	280	258	Kerry
73	319	219	Kerry
74	314	224	Kerry
75	318	220	Kerry
76	321	217	Kerry
77	288	250	Kerry
78	293	245	Kerry
79	299	239	Kerry
80	303	235	Kerry
81	318	220	Kerry
82	332	206	Kerry
83	296	242	Kerry
84	298	240	Kerry
85	302	236	Kerry
86	297	241	Kerry
87	276	262	Kerry
88	300	238	Kerry
89	335	203	Kerry
90	269	269	Tie
91	286	252	Kerry
92	322	216	Kerry
93	288	250	Kerry
94	286	252	Kerry
95	285	253	Kerry
96	322	216	Kerry
97	292	246	Kerry
98	323	215	Kerry
99	315	223	Kerry
100	329	209	Kerry



Notes:			
1) State and 13 National polls are adjusted assuming that			
70% of undecided/Nader/others will split for Kerry.           
                			
2) State polls are weighted by its ratio of total votes cast
in the last 3 elections			
3) Third party candidates not considered for this analysis.   
                           			
4) The analysis is only as good as the quality of polling			
data. The 13 national polls include CNN/Gallup, Fox and IBD.
It is fair to say that they have a tendency to pull Kerry's
average numbers down somewhat. The good news is that the
state polling appears to track within 1% of the national
polls, which are more current.                                
5) State polls are taken over weeks, while National polls are
taken over a period of days.



Simulation Methodology:
Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers applied to
probability distributions of uncertain events in order to
generate a range of sampled outcome scenarios. For the
analysis, I used the
latest state polling numbers to simulate an election outcome.

                                
In this case, an "event" is defined as Kerry's
forecast share of a
state's popular vote. An "outcome" is the simulated
probability of Kerry winning the election, based on the total
electoral votes for the states he "wins"..          
                     
                                
For example, if we run 100 trials in the simulation and
Kerry's
electoral vote total exceeds 269 in 90 of the 100 trials, we
can reasonably conclude that he has a 90% probability of
winning the election. Each state poll is assumed to have a
margin of error of +/-4% and a uniform distribution around the
polling numbers.                                              
            
                                
We assign a probability to Kerry winning each state,
determined by the latest polling numbers.

For example, assume these are the probabilities that Kerry
will win the following states:
Kansas: .001                            
New York: .999                          
Florida: .807                           

This means that if the latest Kansas poll is 60% Bush, 40% ( a
20% spread) then Kerry has a 1 in 1,000 chance of winning the
state. 
                        
In the case of  Florida, a Kerry lead of 5% assigns him an
80.7% probability of winning the state.                       
       
                                
Excel's random generator function returns a random number X
between 0 and 1. If X is less than the probability of Kerry
winning the state, the state goes to Kerry, otherwise it goes
to Bush.                               
                                
For instance, if X = .72 for Florida, then Kerry wins the
state, since X = 72 is LESS than the .807 probability that
Kerry will win FL, based on the latest polls which have him
leading by 5%.                           
                                
The simulation runs identically for all states. The electoral
votes are summed for the states Kerry wins.                   
       
                                
The model assumes that Kerry's polling  numbers in each state
will increase by 70% of the undecided/other vote. This
assumption is based on historical data, which show that
undecideds break for the challenger over 80% of the time.
                                                              
 
For example, assume Kerry is leading in a state by 46%-44%
with 10% undecided. Allocating 70% of the 10% to Kerry adds 7%
to his total. The adjusted projection is now Kerry winning by
53-47%.

[geek tragedy]

1. God bless numbers geeks!

Luv ya!

[wicket]

2. YAY!!!

This is fantastic news! :)

[Trajan]

3. He had BETTER start responding to the GOP broadsides ...

FAST ! ....

He needs a Carville to SLAP DOWN the lies as they arrive, before they can 'stick' ...

NO lie should be allowed to go unchallenged QUICKLY ... ever ....

[fdr_hst_fan]

5. We need some

Democratic "Truth Squads" to follow Smirk around and correct his GLARING errors!

[DeepModem Mom]

4. Oh, man, TIA, knock on wood, and cross your fingers -- and "Thank you"...

for all your hard work on these projections.

[aquart]

6. Hush your mouth and never speak of this again.

Nothing brings down the wrath of God like a Democrat with confidence.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. I am pretty sure too, here's why:

People of all stripes and colors, both sides of the aisle, and all persuasions want one thing right now: competence.

[wryter2000]

13. Also...

He didn't win the first time. How many people who voted for Gore are going to vote for him? 0. How many people who voted for Nader are going to vote for him? 0. How many people who voted for Nader are going to vote for Nader again? Fewer. Who will those former Nader voters vote for? Kerry.

QED, or as Bob Boudelang would say, "Arrest my case."

[lovedems]

8. I think the Bush campaign has probably run the same statistics

that's why they are sending him to states he won in 2000. The UP in Michigan? He shouldn't need to go there! They are probably just trying to make it not so much of a landslide for Kerry at this point!

:yourock:

[Stew225]

9. How about the too much content no link? eom

[lovedems]

10. What?

If you are referring to my post I haven't the slightest idea what you are talking about.

If you are referring to TIA's post, those are his own projections and his own calculations therefor there wouldn't be a link. To much content? Just backing up his claim with facts.

[Don_G]

12. I Prefer This One Myself

[wryter2000]

15. I love that one, too, Don

:yourock:

[lovedems]

16. Have you seen that exact chart only it has a picture of a sinking ship

behind it?

Somone posted it on DU months ago and it was hilarious!

[wryter2000]

11. Thanks for all that

I think you're right. Thanks for crunching all the numbers.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

18. Policy Wonks are HOT!!!

nt

[hippiegranny]

14. happy happy joy joy

i love this post!

:kick:

[NewYorkerfromMass]

17. Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire are ours

We are going to win huge.

[Beloved Citizen]

19. Great stuff!

The Bush campaign has become little more than a media supported shell. I can't wait for election night and the opportunity to watch all the TV news bigdomes shaking their heads in wonder and disbelief at the size of the Kerry landslide.