Watch these states over the next month:
Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Louisiana, West Virginia.
If a few turn blue, Bush will be in deep do-do.
Kerry is already slightly ahead in Tennessee, Ohio and
Missouri.
When and if the national polls show Kerry ahead by 8% (outside
the MoE), he will be in a very powerful position, because that
will mean he is also leading in most, if not all, of the above
states.
My data sources are:
State polling data
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
National polling data
http://www.pollingreport.com
...........................................................
State Polling Electoral Simulation Summary
Today, Kerry is projected to win with around 321 EV and a
5.44% vote spread, assuming 70% of undecided/Nader votes
allocated to Kerry:
Kerry 52.72% 321EV
Bush 47.28% 217EV
Kerry today has a 98% probability of winning.
Assume the trend continues, and the current numbers change to:
Kerry 54.00% 342EV
Bush 46.00% 196EV
With an 8% spread, Kerry will be a virtual 100% lock.
..............................................................
The National Polls will also change from the current 4.11%
spread to over 8%. The spread has increased by 3.11% this
month alone.
Current Projected
Kerry 49.11 54.12
Bush 45.00 45.88
13 -POLL AVERAGE
Actual Polling Data Proj. Polling Data
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 40.78 51.56 -10.4 47.35 52.65 -5.30
Feb 47.44 46.00 1.44 53.02 46.98 6.03
Mar 47.36 44.73 2.64 54.09 45.91 8.17
Apr 46.45 45.27 1.18 53.49 46.51 6.97
May 46.50 44.42 2.08 54.22 45.78 8.44
June 46.70 45.70 1.00 53.16 46.84 6.32
July 49.11 45.00 4.11 54.12 45.88 8.23
<<<<<<
...............................................................
When Kerry is ahead by 8%, the individual state projections
and associated probabilities of Kerry winning the state will
look something like this (key states are *):
EV Kerry% Spread Prob (win)
AL 9 46.5 -7 0.087
AK 3 42.35 -15.3 0.001
AZ* 10 50.3 0.6 0.519 < 52% chance of winning
AR* 6 51.8 3.6 0.711 < 71% chance of winning
CA 55 59.6 19.2 0.990
CO* 9 50.65 1.3 0.577 < 58% chance of winning
CT 7 65.3 30.6 0.990
DE 3 57.55 15.1 0.990
DC 3 90.7 81.4 0.990
FL 27 54.65 9.3 0.975
GA 15 46.95 -6.1 0.125
HI 4 61.95 23.9 0.990
ID 4 42 -16 0.001
IL 21 61.5 23 0.990
IN 11 46.2 -7.6 0.048
IA 7 52.25 4.5 0.769
KS 6 42.8 -14.4 0.001
KY 8 46.65 -6.7 0.106
LA* 9 50.5 1 0.558 < 56% chance of winning
ME 4 53.65 7.3 0.950
MD 10 59.8 19.6 0.990
MA 12 67.65 35.3 0.990
MI 17 55.1 10.2 0.990
MN 10 54.95 9.9 0.975
MS 6 37.65 -24.7 0.001
MO 11 52.55 5.1 0.788 < 79% chance of winning
MT 3 44.9 -10.2 0.001
NE 5 37.25 -25.5 0.001
NV 5 53.2 6.4 0.884
NH 4 58.35 16.7 0.990
NJ 15 57.8 15.6 0.990
NM 5 56.65 13.3 0.990
NY 31 68.2 36.4 0.990
NC* 15 43.55 -12.9 0.001 < I don't believe the latest poll
ND 3 38.1 -23.8 0.001
OH* 20 51.55 3.1 0.673 < 67% chance of winning
OK 7 36.1 -27.8 0.001
OR 7 57.1 14.2 0.990
PA 21 54.55 9.1 0.975
RI 4 66.6 33.2 0.990
SC 8 48.25 -3.5 0.298 < 30% chance of winning
SD 3 46.9 -6.2 0.125
TN* 11 51.4 2.8 0.654 < 65% chance of winning
TX 34 43.8 -12.4 0.001
UT 5 31.35 -37.3 0.001
VT 3 62.05 24.1 0.990
VA 13 49.25 -1.5 0.414 < 41% chance of winning
WA 11 55.55 11.1 0.990
WV* 5 48.1 -3.8 0.279 < 28% chance of winning
WI 10 55.55 11.1 0.990
WY 3 31.4 -37.2 0.001
538