If Kerry pulls ahead in these states, Bush is REALLY toast.

[TruthIsAll]

Watch these states over the next month:
Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Louisiana, West Virginia.
If a few turn blue, Bush will be in deep do-do.

Kerry is already slightly ahead in Tennessee, Ohio and
Missouri.

When and if the national polls show Kerry ahead by 8% (outside
the MoE), he will be in a very powerful position, because that
will mean he is also leading in most, if not all, of the above
states.

My data sources are:
State polling data                              	
http://www.electoral-vote.com/                         		

National polling data                           	
http://www.pollingreport.com    		
...........................................................
State Polling Electoral Simulation Summary		

Today, Kerry is projected to win with around 321 EV and a
5.44% vote spread, assuming 70% of undecided/Nader votes
allocated to Kerry:
Kerry	 52.72%  321EV
Bush	 47.28%  217EV 

Kerry today has a 98% probability of winning.	

Assume the trend continues, and the current numbers change to:
Kerry	54.00% 342EV
Bush	46.00% 196EV

With an 8% spread, Kerry will be a virtual 100% lock.
..............................................................

The National Polls will also change from the current 4.11%
spread to over 8%. The spread has increased by 3.11% this
month alone.	

	Current Projected 
Kerry	49.11	54.12 
Bush	45.00	45.88

	13 -POLL AVERAGE					
	Actual Polling Data  Proj. Polling Data		
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	40.78	51.56	-10.4	47.35	52.65	-5.30
Feb	47.44	46.00	1.44	53.02	46.98	6.03
Mar	47.36	44.73	2.64	54.09	45.91	8.17
Apr	46.45	45.27	1.18	53.49	46.51	6.97
May	46.50	44.42	2.08	54.22	45.78	8.44
June	46.70	45.70	1.00	53.16	46.84	6.32
July	49.11	45.00	4.11	54.12	45.88	8.23
<<<<<<
...............................................................

When Kerry is ahead by 8%, the individual state projections
and associated probabilities of Kerry winning the state will
look something like this (key states are *):
				
	EV	Kerry% Spread Prob (win)
AL	9	46.5	-7	0.087		
AK	3	42.35	-15.3	0.001		
AZ*	10	50.3	0.6	0.519	< 52% chance of winning 
AR*	6	51.8	3.6	0.711	< 71% chance of winning 
CA	55	59.6	19.2	0.990		
CO*	9	50.65	1.3	0.577	< 58% chance of winning 
CT	7	65.3	30.6	0.990		
DE	3	57.55	15.1	0.990
DC	3	90.7	81.4	0.990
FL	27	54.65	9.3	0.975
GA	15	46.95	-6.1	0.125
HI	4	61.95	23.9	0.990
ID	4	42	-16	0.001
IL	21	61.5	23	0.990
IN	11	46.2	-7.6	0.048
IA	7	52.25	4.5	0.769
KS	6	42.8	-14.4	0.001
KY	8	46.65	-6.7	0.106
LA*	9	50.5	1	0.558 <  56% chance of winning 
ME	4	53.65	7.3	0.950
MD	10	59.8	19.6	0.990
MA	12	67.65	35.3	0.990
MI	17	55.1	10.2	0.990
MN	10	54.95	9.9	0.975
MS	6	37.65	-24.7	0.001
MO	11	52.55	5.1	0.788 < 79% chance of winning
MT	3	44.9	-10.2	0.001
NE	5	37.25	-25.5	0.001
NV	5	53.2	6.4	0.884
NH	4	58.35	16.7	0.990
NJ	15	57.8	15.6	0.990
NM	5	56.65	13.3	0.990
NY	31	68.2	36.4	0.990
NC*	15	43.55	-12.9	0.001 < I don't believe the latest poll 
ND	3	38.1	-23.8	0.001
OH*	20	51.55	3.1	0.673 < 67% chance of winning 
OK	7	36.1	-27.8	0.001
OR	7	57.1	14.2	0.990
PA	21	54.55	9.1	0.975
RI	4	66.6	33.2	0.990
SC	8	48.25	-3.5	0.298 < 30% chance of winning
SD	3	46.9	-6.2	0.125
TN*	11	51.4	2.8	0.654 < 65% chance of winning 
TX	34	43.8	-12.4	0.001
UT	5	31.35	-37.3	0.001
VT	3	62.05	24.1	0.990
VA	13	49.25	-1.5	0.414 < 41% chance of winning
WA	11	55.55	11.1	0.990
WV*	5	48.1	-3.8	0.279 < 28% chance of winning
WI	10	55.55	11.1	0.990
WY	3	31.4	-37.2	0.001
	538			

[LoverOfLiberty]

1. My you are optimistic!

I am absolutely certain (100%) that the current administration has a few tricks up their sleeve.

I shudder to think what they might be.

[UTUSN]

2. And Yet----------the Election Will Be "Postponed" (Cancelled) n/t

[fearnobush]

3. I never feel good when a poll tells me a candidate has a big or

"98%" chance of winning. After the convention, the American sheeple will be pitched up against the most slanderous and attacking media campaign against Kerry/Edwards to date. Remember, they totally destroyed Gore in 2000 and he still won. SO, please do not lose resolve in assuming, it's in the bag, because we have to fight Diebold and the voter scrub race games all over again.

[mitchtv]

4. we have to be ready to be all over

Local newsreaders also.emails ,calls, etc

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

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[defoliate_bush]

7. hey, southern christian...

go back to your church and stop trying to sound smart. Bush wouldn't have won the election if Jeb hadn't stolen it for him. Don't even try to deny that.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

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[Lex]

8. Listen, the media was biased again Gore in 2000

.
and it is a proven fact. I can find a link for you for that.

On edit, here: A . . . study by the Pew Research Center and the Project for Excellence in Journalism underscores this. Examining 2,400 newspaper, TV, and Internet stories in five different weeks between February and June, researchers found that a whopping 76 percent of the coverage included one of two themes: that Gore lies and exaggerates or is marred by scandal. The most common theme about Bush, the study found, is that he is a "different kind of Republican."
http://www.cjr.org/archives.asp?url=/00/3/hall.asp


And Bush won a legal case, he did NOT win an election.

Every single model used shows that if the State of Florida had done a total recount (which is what their state Supreme Court ordered before the US Supreme Court nosed in & overruled them) then Gore would've won that state.

And remember the thousands that were illegally thrown off the voter rolls in 2000 in Florida? Mostly Democrats, not surprisingly.

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

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[Lex]

11. Nope, never happened.

.
Gore fought to keep all valid military votes and count them.

There was NEVER an instance where Gore fought to have "illegally thrown off military votes."

However, the Florida fiasco was investigated by a Federal Commission:

--------------------

The commission held three days of hearings, interviewed 100 witnesses and reviewed 118,000 documents.

Some of the key findings:

• Blacks were nearly 10 times as likely as whites to have their ballots rejected. Poor counties populated by minorities were more likely to use voting systems that rejected larger percentages of ballots than more affluent counties.

The report says that Florida's election procedures were characterised by "injustice, ineptitude and inefficiency" and said Florida officials were "grossly derelict" in their duties.

It found that 54% of votes that were rejected came from black voters, who make up only 11% of the state's population.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/1372065.stm

[Lex]

5. TIA--did you see the Mason-Dixon poll for NC today?

They are saying statistical dead heat for NC.

The CNN/Gallup poll from earlier in the week was pure crap.

See: http://www.wral.com/news/3530033/detail.html

(Mason-Dixon is a long time pollster in NC and its new poll is more in keeping with the previous polling done here.)

[TruthIsAll]

12. Thanks for the heads-up. Gallup/CNN is NEVER to be trusted

I include CNN and Fox in my 13 polls, knowing that it dilutes the Kerry numbers.

Bottom line: Kerry is doing better than the computed average of these polls.

I will check the TN poll.

[TruthIsAll]

13. Dead heat in NC: Kerry 45, Bush 48, Undecided 7

http://www.wral.com/news/3530287/detail.html

Using 70% allocation of undecided to the challenger (5% to Kerry, 2% Bush) makes it a 50/50 race.

Kerry/Edwards will carry the state.

[opihimoimoi]

14. In the nx few weeks, I suspect Rummy and Cheny will fall on their swords

to commit a messy Sempuku of sorts....in a vain attempt to save the Bush Team/

To no avail, they will lose it for Bush.... he is an amateur in the HardBall Court faking his way through.... not gonna make it....

Bush is Toast.

[TruthIsAll]

15. Opi, how are things in Waikiki? Cheney needs a long rest...

perhaps you can prepare fettucini alfredo for him.

Good for the heart.