Kerry polling 52.91% beating Dems avg 52.60% in last 3 elections.

[TruthIsAll]

I have just updated my database to include the latest
Mason-Dixon NC poll (45% Kerry, 48% Bush). This is a lot
better than the previous bogus CNN/Gallup poll which had Bush
up by 15%. In fact, its a dead heat.

Right now, Kerry is beating the average popular vote % of Dems
vs. Repubs in the last 3 elections, Clinton (two) and Gore.

Kerry has 52.91% (using state polls, weighted) and 53.23%
(average of 13 national polls).

Compare this to the Dems 52.60% over the last 3 elections.

Kerry/Edwards is a winner. No question.

State Polls Projection			
Kerry	52.91%	334EV
Bush	47.09%	204EV
Kerry wins	98	of 100 trial runs	

National Polls Projection			
	Current	Projected 	
Kerry	49.11	53.23	
Bush	45.00	46.77	
			
			
Last three presidential elections:                            
			
Total Votes (millions)                         			
Dem: 138.75 (52.60%)                            			
Rep: 125.03 (47.4%)                             			

[Stephanie]

1. The people just want someone competent

That's really all they want.

[featherman]

2. My very first post on DU!

Thank you, TIA. Your elegant posts on the byzantine world of polling and electoral vote projection analysis is a major reason I finally became a registered DU member. I have been boring friends and family with the more esoteric of this stuff for the last three campaigns. It's gonna be a fun ride this season!

[DBoon]

3. Conga rats on first post

welcome to DU!

http://www.bluemountain.com/display.pd?path=35041&bfrom=1&prodnum=3032060&va=1

[K8-EEE]

4. welcome!

Welcome to DU!

[Mortos]

5. from one newby to another

welcome to DU. Hope you enjoy your stay.

[newyawker99]

7. Hi featherman!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[TruthIsAll]

8. Welcome to DU. Glad to hear you liked my elect stat postings..

My Electoral Vote Simulation model is the only one that I'm aware of which uses Monte Carlo Simulation. I believe this is the best method to determine the probability of Kerry winning - by analyzing the latest state polls in aggregate.

There are many combinations of states which can go for Kerry. We want to find what percentage of trial simulations will get him 269 electoral votes.

Based on current state polls, the simulation analysis indicates that Kerry now has a 98% probability of winning. This is a very accurate estimate. The probability will approach 100% as Kerry's poll numbers continue to rise.

The average person is not aware of this. If the media is aware of the methodology, they are keeping it a secret. Kerry's chances of winning are far greater than the media would have you believe.

I will post the analysis on a regular basis as the polls change.

[TransitJohn]

11. Hello there.

Wave.

[no name no slogan]

6. That's good news this early on

I only hope that the percentage goes up higher-- there's no way in hell Bush should be ahead of Kerry, given the mess he's made.

But to be fair, the Dems performance in the past three presidential elections has been less than stellar. Clinton won, twice, with pluralities, NOT majorities. If not for Ross Perot, he very well may have lost to Bush I.

Given the complete ineptitude of the Bush II administration, I'd like to see a 1964 Johnson-Goldwater style victory. It's a longshot, I know, but you gotta dream....

:D

[GiovanniC]

9. TruthIsAll, Do You Have a Website

Where you keep this information that I can send family, friends, strangers, and enemies to?

[TruthIsAll]

10. I do have a website. It's DU.....

I will only report from here. Lots of eyeballs will view the analysis, much more than if I had it on an obscure site.

DU is mainstream now. The big boys in the media and govt. are lurking here.

You can e-mail the links to anyone you choose.

These are the links to my data sources:

State polling data link:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
I download the state polling data to Excel.

National polling data link:
http://www.pollingreport.com
I manually copy Bush Job approval ratings and election polling data to Excel.

tia