If I were a Republican I would be very depressed after watching Wolf

[59millionmorons]

They went through five swing states recent polls -PA,OH,MI,FL and NC and Kerry was leading in all except NC.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. That NC is listed as a swing state now

Should be depressing enough! :bounce:

[lovedems]

2. And NC was close!

Kerry has a sizeable lead if fucking Nader wasn't involved.

Just who are the dumbass 5% who would vote for him after knowing what they know about his contributions? Are there republicans sandbagging the polls?

[Literate Tar Heel]

8. if you're talking about the N.C. poll

Nader isn't even involved, I don't think he'll be on the ballot here, he wasn't in 2000 ... it was Bush 48, Kerry 45, undecided 7, with a 3% margin of error ... my feeling is that most of the 7% undecided are people who voted for Bush in 2000 but are unhappy enough with him now to not be committed yet and are waiting to hear more from and learn more about Kerry before they decide to support him

[Lex]

10. The 7% undecideds---historically undecideds break for the newcomer

and not the incumbent.

I think it is tied up right now, if you allocate 60% of the undecideds to Kerry.

[comsymp]

15. At noon today, WUNC news said that the Nader folks only have

a few more days to turn his petition (w/100K sigs) in order to be on the ballot, so you're correct.

Of course, it could still happen- additionally, they apparently only need 500 sigs to have him eligible as a write-in.

[Literate Tar Heel]

16. even if Nader gets on

I don't think there are many votes for him here ... maybe a couple hundred in Orange County and less in Mecklenburg and Buncombe, perhaps New Hanover, but barely worth the time to even try to get the signatures (there's no way in hell he can get 100K signatures without a concerted effort from the Republican party anyway)

[comsymp]

22. Agreed-

Esp re: New Hanover- Frankly, I see him as more of a liability for Bush than for Kerry. There are many, many R's who reeeeeallly don't want to vote for Dub again but can't quite commit to Kerry. Nobody really knows what Nader's positions are and, since he's no longer associated with the Greens, he would provide these voters the same out that Perot did in '92, on a much smaller scale... IMO, of course.

[Literate Tar Heel]

27. that's possible

I was thinking of the hippies and young disillusioned voters who want to make a statement against the whole process by going for Nader, and I think there will be far far fewer of those than there would have been in 2000 if he had been on the ballot ... I think a lot of those Republicans you're talking about would probably vote for the Libertarian Badnarik before Nader (Browne, the Libertarian candidate in 2000 polled around 1-2% in the Triangle)

[Literate Tar Heel]

29. actually I just saw

that the Charlotte Observer was reporting today that Nader only has 15K signatures and will only be a write-in candidate in N.C.

[comsymp]

30. Thx for the update

That should tighten things up a little more. Also, agreed w/your above comments about Libertarian support- when I lived in Wilm about 10 years ago (has it been that long!?) there was a fair amount of support for both him and Perot among the folks I knew.

[gasperc]

28. how can the poll Nader, he on what 2 ballots

and he has until 5pm TODAY to submit 30,000 sigs to be on MI ballot

[seabeyond]

3. i know that was good news for kerry

yes yes

[Wind Dancer]

4. The last CNN poll taken in NC was totally wrong!

NC does have a chance of winning!

[Lex]

12. Yeah, CNN didn't even bring up its stupid inaccurate poll

.
from earlier this week.

CNN only discussed the Mason-Dixon poll, which came out yesterday evening, and Mason-Dixon is a long-time pollster in the state.

[Wind Dancer]

18. Absolutely!

:toast:

[LittleApple81]

5. I was looking at that, and read about Fox's "seven suitcases" here

Sorry, I think they will MIHOP... they are getting desperate.

[noonwitch]

6. The only way Bush can win Michigan is if the terrorists attack Detroit.

Michigan's economy has suffered greatly under his administration. He's not getting many votes in the largest city, the arab-americans have turned against him (they voted for him last time), and it basically comes down to how Oakland and Macomb counties vote.

If he can find a way to supress the votes in Detroit/Wayne County, he could win.

[redqueen]

7. The people must demand to have their votes counted

if there IS an attack somewhere, the people there should fight that much harder to have their votes counted. We can't cede an inch of ground.

[LittleApple81]

9. Why do you think they are going "nucular" with the threats now? This

is becoming the ONLY WAY THEY ARE GOING TO WIN.
I heard Kerry at the NAACP: HE IS ENERGIZED has a good message, and is a much better alternative to the chimp.

Prepare yourselves... me thinks something is coming down the pike...

[bossfish]

11. Why does a terrorist attack help Bush?

I just don't get it. Since 'terra' is all the guy can say, it would seem that if another attack happens, he should be held accountable. After all, we have that rainbow thingy and all.

I know this is the conventional wisdom and all.

[catmandu57]

14. They can use it as an excuse

to declare marshall law and install the chimp* as dictator for life.

[dmkinsey]

25. I've been thinking the same

Ridge said that "terrorists will try to influence our election".
It seems that they should be called out to explain their reasoning.
What makes Tom Ridge believe that terrorists want to "influence our election" and why does HE think that terrorists think an attack will be a blow to *. (Ridge's implied argument)

[magnolia]

19. I agree with you!

9/11 was so unexpected that it shocked everyone senseless. We were reeling with sadness. If it happens again I am certain the reaction would be totally different. There would be massive rage at Bush for not having gone after Bin Laden and Al Qeada.

[FighttheFuture]

13. Why would people vote for the ass who failed to protect them a second time

Really... I'll tell you this - I'm sick of their bullshit. If America isn't attacked before the election, I'm voting for John Kerry. And if America is attacked before the election, I'm voting for John Kerry.

[calimary]

17. The fear, and I can fully understand it, is that everybody's immediate

reaction is "WE GOTTA STAND BEHIND OUR PRESIDENT!!!" And everybody closes ranks because it's the first thing they think of to do. It happened once, already, as we've all seen. Look at how the opposition in Congress melted away. Look at how even in other countries the instant reaction was "Today, we are ALL Americans."

Granted, in other countries, we've squandered that good will so thoroughly that it won't come up again. This time they'll probably be of the opinion that we had it coming.

But America will thick-headedly and steadfastly stick our chins in the air and our heels in the ground and stand defiantly with "Our President." Us Versus Them. Yer with us or agin us.

That's the main reason why Osama and the others are probably VERY hopeful that bush gets reelected - because he's their dream-come-true recruitment inducement. He's played straight into their hands, and they know it. They seem to be VERY astute judges of character, and character flaws and foibles. That's exactly what I'd expect much of America to do. Terrorist strike? Hey, all bets are off. All differences aside. We're WITH george here.

[Blue_Roses]

23. I think people would be so mad that it happened a 2nd

time that they would want to immediately give him his walking papers. An attack before the elections would definitely swing in favor of Kerry. People are tired of this crap and know that a change is needed.

[porphyrian]

20. I get depressed knowing people watch Wolf. - n/t

[maggrwaggr]

21. If I were GOP I'd be depressed because they're not dumping Bush

If I were a republican I'd be vehemently insisting that the party dump Bush altogether and replace him with somebody else.

No joke.

That's assuming anyone in the republican party has an IQ over 90 or an actual sense of reality that isn't completely warped by delusion.

Bush is the biggest crook/loser to come down the pike in this country EVER.

[Wind Dancer]

26. Well said! n/t

[Solly Mack]

24. If I were republican, I'd be depressed on principle

it's gotta be axiomatic...republican? depressed!