Jeremy Siegel "Tradesports" projections: Kerry 291, Bush 247

[swag]

Professor Siegel (Wharton School, author "Stocks for the Long Run") started doing electoral projections based on state-by-state futures contracts (bets) on tradesports.com. This week is a turn-around from last week, with the Prof's projections showing

Kerry 291
Bush 247

The Prof thinks Bush can't carry Pennsylvania or Wisconsin and that he must carry both Ohio and Florida in order to win.

I would post a link, but this info comes in a subscriber only email.

I don't have as much faith in the gamblers on this Dublin-based betting site as the Prof does - Tradesports bettors seem to have a natural predisposition to bet on Bush.

[jfxgillis]

1. Good call, but ...

.. I don't think it's a pro-Bush bias, but rather a pro-conventional-wisdom bias.

The aircraft carrier of CW takes a while to turn.

My take on Tradesports is that it was skewed to Bush by about 4 points, but that bias is fading. By Summer's end it'll be skewed Kerry.

[swag]

2. I'll buy that.

Thanks for a more cogent analysis.