Peak Oil – Are they trying to break the news to the public gently?

[Suspicious]

I had the television on last night as I was falling asleep, and a BP commercial woke me right up. You have probably seen this advertising campaign if you watch CNN or any of the cable network news – they pretend to interview “real people” and obtain their views on energy, resources, etc.

I had not seen this one, previously. A young woman (the “interviewee”) says, “We’re running out of oil.” She goes on to say that oil is not going to last forever, and she would like to see more effort put into developing alternative sources of energy. BP ends their commercial with an assertion that they, indeed, are investing in and researching alternative energy resources.

Are they actually trying to break the news – gently – to the mainstream public? Is this a good sign - a sign of progress, or an omen of how bleak the future might, indeed, be?

[IronLionZion]

1. British Petroleum really is doing that

They have been for many years. The American ones are little more thick. They'd rather liberate more countries than do some research to actually help the situation.

[NMDemDist2]

2. i really need to read up on this issue

the different info on this is maddening

I have heard we have enough for a couple hundred years, and yet this Peak Oil is making the rounds, but I haven't done any readin on it.

got any good links to start my education?

[Kolesar]

6. Well, there is the dieoff.org site

It won't make you very happy. www.dieoff.org It is a grim view. If you have a DU donor membership, you could search the Energy & Environment for "peak oil".

edit: I cannot get that site or www.dieoff.com to execute. I don't know why. I recalled the url from memory.

[Dogmudgeon]

18. dieoff.com works fine for me

It could be a local thing for your ISP.

--bkl

[Renew Deal]

7. Here is some info

This is the first thread I remember seeing at DU about the subject:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1196017

Here's another.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1643341

I know there are other Peak oil threads in GD and the Environment forum. I bet some of the enviro ones are not locked yet.

Edit: Here's more
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1213617

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1213687

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1209474

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1219098

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1226292

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1230020

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1234521

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1259556

More from the Enviro forum:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=6193

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=6111

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=6290

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=6071

This was a good thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=7381

[Suspicious]

8. Here are a couple of links.

I can't vouch for the validity of the information contained in them, obviously. I try to stay away from the doom and gloom sites, just because I went through all of them when I first learned about Peak Oil, and while they motivated me to get more information, extreme pessimism tends to aggravate me.

http://www.peakoil.net/

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/

[Zynx]

19. Looks like long-term oil contracts

Might be a very good bet if the oil peak is in 2008.

Personally, I think it will be sooner. Everyone has a hard time modeling how much China drinks, because there's no precedent for it.

Plus, I suspect that the Saudis are lying and have been for a long time.

[Renew Deal]

3. I have seen it. And I think you're right.

I was thinking the same thing. The only one's talking about Peak Oil are a couple of the oil companies. BP is the big one. I think Mobil as gotten in on it too. I wish they would jusmp right to the die off. That would make for some great television.

[John_Shadows_1]

4. I've seen the Peak Oil documentary ....

.... "End of Suburbia" - one of the experts said that the media doesn't want to talk about Peak Oil because there's no upside.

[SpiralHawk]

12. Suburbia need not end, but it must transform itself quickly

I'm talking a range of concrete steps: minimally polluting mass transit, non-gas or low-gas automobiles, bicycles, sidewalks everywhere, organic community farms, alternative energy systems such as wind, solar and whatever else, huge tree replanting programs (with lots of shade, fruit and nut trees) recycling of everything, and massive CCC type programs to clean up the waterways (nearly every drop should be drinkable and swimable and teeming with fish), and to clean up and restore the thousands of toxic waste sites in the burbs, the cities, and the countryside. Make them gardens again -- or at least places where people can build safe, energy-efficient homes.

All of this is possible. All of this is doable. What we need is the WILL to do it. I think that for the American people to wait for a leader of some kind to lead us strongly in this direction -- Kerry or whoever -- is a major stategic blunder. It just ain't likely to happen (though I will be delighted if it does). The will needs to arise locally, and the transformations need to happen locally.

In all of this I feel that the "evangelical" approach to a 'better life' for Americans is basically unworkable, and also an insult to free will. I feel demonstration is the way forward -- to actually demonstrate these solutions in action --- over and over and over -- and trust that our neighbors will recognize the basic wisdom of this kind of approach. I, for one, maintain such faith and trust, even as Massive Ugly Storm Clouds gather overhead, and obscenely loud belches and retches arise from the UnderWorld.

Credo: We can build a sustainable, peaceful, beautiful and prosperous nation, and world.

It's up to We The People.

Same as it ever was.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"It is not a sign of good health to be well adjusted
to a sick society." -- J. Krishnamurti (1895-1986)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[Suspicious]

13. See, I really like your attitude.

I've been looking into organizing a neighborhood group (I have great neighbors - all have "No War in Iraq" and similar signs in their yards, and my closest neighbors - a couple in their late 60s - grow all of their own vegetables, etc., and use their own compost, and we live in the middle of a farily large city) to become educated on all of the topics related to Peak Oil and implementation of workable, local solutions.

Thanks for posting some optimistic words!

[John_Shadows_1]

21. I agree with your prescriptions...

... but when I tell people about Peak Oil they look at me like I'm from outer space - you have to recognize that the comfort of the suburban lifestyle is second nature to Americans, and they really can't conceive themselves living outside of it. The thought of this alter-existence you're describing would be like light trying to pass through the event horizon in a black hole.

Only disaster will bring any change on, and I think it will get way worse before it ever gets better.

[Deja Q]

29. Here's an idea...

It IS doable.

Our society is geared on "individuality" and not "SOCIETY". Repukes shout the claim 'family values' but only as a means to get votes. If they did give a damn, they wouldn't kiss up to the oil companies and tell our public to band together.

But if Magpie Thatcher said there's no such thing as society, the repukes of 2004 sure as hell won't.

It's a great idea, but how do we get people to co-operate locally? I'm in. Why don't we all form a community, pack up our goodies, and move together to BECOME such a community?

The masses wouldn't believe us for one thing...

[Peak_Oil]

20. There is no upside to it.

It's going to be extremely difficult on us. Transportation is a small part of the bigger problem. Much more difficult to come to terms with is food. Much of the food we eat is the product of petroleum-based fertilizer and petroleum-based insecticides, not to mention petroleum-based agricultural machinery and petroleum-based transportation to refrigerated markets, which we drive to in our cars and store in our refrigerators before we cook it on our natural-gas fired electric stoves.

This is going to hurt.

[Tellurian]

5. Well yeah, don't you remember when Cheney first took office...

He said they intend to build one nuclear reactor a month as a new source of energy because our current energy resources are not as reliable as they were years ago?

[toddaa]

9. Oil Wars

Let's see. China and Japan are fighting over oil. US and EU are in a diplomatic tussle over Iraq. And we still haven't gotten to the bottom of the attempted coup in Venezuala. Yep, WWIII is right on schedule.

Turn out the lights, the party's over.

[Veggie Meathead]

16. You allso need to factor in the growth of the economies of India,

China and Brazil which are poor in oil resources.These countries are going to be advanced technologically in the next two decades.Because they are also populous (India: One billion plus, China:One billion Plus,Brazil:300 million plus) their thirst for oil may even exceed our own.The Iraq style of war over oil will not intimidate these countries.I predict that unless we change our current pattern of thinking,i.e.shoot first,ask questions later,we are in for wars that will make Iraq look like a picnic.

[izzie]

10. This is one of the subject that really interest me.

Some thing was said that started me on a long dig up stuff on this PC to see what was going on. I come up with we are running out. It will be very low, not all gone, long before the 2050 that they have said for years. It was all mixed up with how Bush built his new house, oil companies selling off to larger firms(down to 100 company from 500) the no show on Chaney's papers, new ways to drill to get more oil per-well, SEC looking into Royal Dutch Co. fibs, why we were in Iraq and I guess other things like China and India. I think we are just going to really slow down on what we have and the price will just go up and up. Times will change. I hope it is not fast but who knows. Stocks must be kept up so the big corp do not seem to Tell the true and it pays Saudi not to. I think if it comes slow we can handle it. We moved into an oil economy slow as I recall when we did take trains(a good use of energy) and we put oil in our homes where we had coal.I am turning 70 so it has been in my life time.

[Beam Me Up]

11. "As long as the oil supply is able to follow demand . . ."

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/071604_samsam_bak.shtml

OPENING STATEMENT BY A.M. SAMSAM BAKHTIARI
AT PANEL DISCUSSION OF ASPO 2004
THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP
ON OIL AND GAS DEPLETION
(BERLIN, GERMANY; MAY 27, 2004)


. . . In energy terms, the Middle East's importance is clearly undergirded by its vast petroleum reserves --- reserves which clearly dwarf those of other regions, as the Oil and Gas Journal reminds us year in and year out.

It should, however, be borne in mind, that even Middle Eastern oil reserves are limited. Oman's abrupt output plunge of 2002-2003 was but the first warning; Syria has just entered its terminal oil decline; even Yemen seems to have peaked. Some would argue that these are only minor producers. Correct. But that doesn't mean major producers won't some day follow suit. Even that greatest of all producers, Saudi Arabia, the allegedly unsinkable "producer for all seasons," has its limits.

It was in February 2004 that Mr. Matthews Simmons voiced his doubts about the Saudi oil potential: "Thinking the Unthinkable." His ironclad case sounded really convincing, it also came to dovetail nicely with the main simulation results of my own WOCAP model. Moreover, Mr. Simmons' masterful thesis seems to apply (with minor variations) to other major Middle Eastern producers. And if these producers, instead of continuing to deny realities, don't tackle existing problems soon, it might end up to the detriment of all --- especially to that of major consumers.

As long as the oil supply is able to follow demand, the world doesn't face a major problem, as it can easily optimize by price. But if some day, and that day might be not that far off, oil demand does chase supply, then production will have to be optimized --- as every single oil barrel is going to pull its full weight.

[JohnyCanuck]

14. Breaking News section of lifeaftertheoilcrash.net is good

The breaking news section of www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net is good for keeping up with news stories that relate to oil and energy issues that have a bearing on peak oil. It's updated pretty well every day except maybe for weekends. Here's the direct link: www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html

www.peakoil.com (not to be confused with www.peakoil.net) like lifeaftertheoilcrash has regularly updated links to news stories related to oil/energy issues and peak oil and they've got a forum as well devoted to the Peak Oil issue.

www.globalpublicmedia.com has lots of links on peak oil/gas issues. Look for the Dutch TV documentary on Peak Oil driving a switch to a Hydrogen economy recently posted on this site. It's about 75% in English with Dutch subtitles, and then some Dutch commentary as well (no English). Quite easy to follow for an English speaker however. Most of the globalpublicmedia interviews and stories are available as MP3s or in written transcript form. To access the links to the material, page down underneath the opening display which contains the membership info.

Last but not least you could check out the documentary The End of Suburbia available from www.endofsuburbia.com for $24US or check the link at their site for the location of public showings in case any turn up in your area.

(Edited for clarity)

[Ready4Change]

15. BP commercial is an appeal to green customers, I think.

They're getting more and more involved in alternative sources. In my region they've bought and are operating a PV solar cell factory, for example.

Smart move, as far as I'm concerned. If I were playing stocks I'd be looking to buy theirs. Keep on foot in oil while getting the other into alternaives.

[Geo55]

17. BP is positioning itself for survivial.....

unlike most of the others....they seem to take the issue for what it is and are heading toward alternate energy.
I hope they can help , but the global economy is so fragile in regards to rapid flow of easily obtained oil , things may get strange.
The "insurgents" in Iraq keep shuting down the oil infrastructure...doesn't cause much havoc , 3 mbpd at best....put if the manage a decent strike in SA....hunker down for some rough going.

[GreenPartyVoter]

22. Exactly. Young companies will do anything to get further up the ladder

Old behemoths, on the other hand, fight tooth and nail to keep the status quo. Hence the situation we have now with Big Oil and the car manufacturers.

Bp is smart in doing what a canny younger company would do and look for where the next big boom will be instead of just trying to milk out the last big boom.

[cliss]

23. Last week in the Sunday Oregonian,

there was a full-page article about Peak Oil. I was so surprised. Of course, we at the DU have been reading about this for a long time. There are literally hundreds of articles on the Internet about this.

So it certainly was no surprise to me. The only surprise was that the paper printed it. My sister called me the next day and asked if I had read the article. "Of course", I said. She was very surprised. She had no idea that her Staff Of Life was about to run out.

I think lots of other people were surprised, as well.

It's about time they got this into the mainstream media.

[donsu]

24. their next ads will be on the wonderfulness of hydrogen

nt

[GreenPartyVoter]

25. Which is only wonderful if it doesn't leak into the atmosphere and eat the

ozone.

[Geo55]

26. It will be an interesting time....

albeit...perhaps tragic , will we go down in flames ?
Will we be able to transition despite huge disruption?
Will the surviving portion of the population be smarter?
In the end...it doesn't matter...what will emerge will come.
And we've all got front row tickets.

[Deja Q]

27. And the same cretins looked up to Reagan when he dismantled AE programs!

AE=alternative energy

The corporations won't do squat, it'll cost them too much money and they know the technologies can't even begin to match what oil has given us.

It's a dichotomy. Should the public be made aware? Or let them dribble and blither on and usual, blissfully unaware that society as we know it has anywhere from 2-10 years before the increasing short causes economies to implode and disintegrate.

[fortyfeetunder]

28. One thing forr certain, the * administration is clueless.

From www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

"The situation is so dire, even George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged "The situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question." In an August 2003 interview, Mr. Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:

"It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our heath - greater than anyone could ever imagine."

When asked if there is a solution, Simmons responded:

"I don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered, there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty."

Pray, WTF will that do? If * and GFY Cheney hadn't screwed around with Enron, didn't enact that outrageous tax break that allowed Murkans to buy those monster SUV's literally free, and had a comprehensive policy on alternate energy research, then maybe we could deal with Peak Oil. But no....This mess is beyond prayer.