TIA Election Forecast Model Update

[TruthIsAll]

ELECTION FORECAST AND ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION		

Polling Data as of July 17.

Kerry National Projection: 
53.87% of total vote.

Electoral Vote Simulation:	
Kerry Wins 98 of 100 trials.
Kerry Projection: 52.92%
Kerry wins an average of 326 electoral votes.		
				

LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS												
Total Votes (in millions)                         												
Dem	138.75	52.60%										
Rep	125.03	47.40%										
												

BUSH JOB APPROVAL												
The data source is Pollingreport.com    												
												
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
Jan.	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
Feb.	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
Mar.	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
Apr.	48.80	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
May	45.20	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
June	47.00	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
July	47.40	48	na	na	na	na	45	na	na	45	50	49
												
												
												
												
												
NATIONAL AVERAGE POLLING TREND												
												
The data source is POLLINGREPORT.COM												
The data consists of monthly polling results from:
												
IBD,ABC,NWK,ARG,NBC,CBS,PEW,LAT,ZOGBY,TIME												
These numbers are averaged for a composite
forecast.												
												
	Poll Averages			Projection								
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	42.50	50.17	-11.50	46.48	53.52	-7.03
Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	52.60	47.40	5.20
Mar	48.13	44.38	3.75	53.38	46.63	6.75
Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	52.80	47.20	5.60
May	47.11	44.22	2.89	53.18	46.82	6.36
June	47.13	45.00	2.13	52.64	47.36	5.28
July	49.57	44.29	5.29	53.87	46.13	7.74
						
Assume 70% of undecided/others are allocated to Kerry.						
Latest Poll Avg 	49.57					
+ allocation	4.30					
Projection 	53.87	% of total vote.				
						
						
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION SUMMARY						
						
The data source is ELECTORAL-VOTE.COM						
The data was downloaded to Excel for the forecasting
model.						
One hundred (100)  trials are run in each simulation.						
						
Simulation I: Conservative Case 						
Kerry allocation: 	60%	of undecided/other votes.				
Kerry won 	96	trials with 	52.00%	of the vote.		
Kerry won an average of		311	electoral votes.			
His maximum total was		371				
His minimum was total		233				
						
Simulation II: Most likely Case 						
Kerry allocation: 	70%	of undecided/other votes.				
Kerry won 	98	trials with 	52.92%	of the vote.		
Kerry won an average of		326	electoral votes.			
His maximum total was		380		
His minimum was total		251		
				
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 				
Kerry allocation: 	80%	of undecided/other votes.		
Kerry won 	100	trials with 	53.83%	of the vote.
Kerry won an average of		349	electoral votes.	
His maximum total was		401		
His minimum was total		297		
				
				
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST 				

Kerry's vote % is weighted by each state's percentage of the
total vote in the last 3 elections..				

Kerry's projected % for each state is based on the latest
state poll, adjusted				
by the allocation of undecided/other voters.													

The probability of Kerry winning a state is determined by the
current poll spread between Kerry and Bush, compared to the
MoE. 													
Obviously, the greater the spread, the greater the probability
Kerry will win the state.													

The first ten trials of the 100 Base Case simulation
follow.													

Simulation II	70%	Undecided/other to Kerry											
     Wins	Pct	Avg EV	Max EV	Min EV								
Kerry	98	52.92%	326	380	251								
Bush	2	47.08%	212	287	158								


													
	Elect.	Proj.	Kerry										
State	Dem%	Kerry%	Prob.	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
AL	44.8	45.0	1.0%				9						
AK	37.6	40.7	0.1%										
AZ	48.8	47.2	16.4%				10		10		10		
AR	55.2	50.6	55.8%	6		6		6		6			
CA	57.4	57.2	99.0%	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
CO	48.8	49.3	41.4%				9		9			9	
CT	57.7	62.6	99.0%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	99.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
DC	90.3	90.4	99.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	53.3	88.4%	27	27	27	27	27		27	27	27	27
GA	47.6	45.9	1.0%										
HI	59.0	60.9	99.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.1%										
IL	57.9	60.0	99.0%	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	1.0%										
IA	51.8	53.6	95.0%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
KS	42.4	41.6	0.1%										
KY	46.7	45.3	1.0%			8							
LA	49.2	49.0	37.5%	9		9		9	9			9	9
ME	57.1	52.3	76.9%	4	4		4		4	4	4	4	
MD	57.8	58.6	99.0%	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	66.3	99.0%	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	54.2	97.5%	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
MN	55.7	53.3	88.4%	10	10	10	10		10	10	10	10	10
MS	44.3	36.3	0.1%										
MO	52.5	52.1	75.0%	11		11	11	11	11	11	11	11	
MT	44.9	42.8	0.1%										
NE	37.5	36.5	0.1%										
NV	49.9	51.4	65.4%	5	5		5	5	5		5		
NH	51.7	56.7	99.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
NJ	56.5	56.6	99.0%	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	55.3	99.0%	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
NY	62.6	66.4	99.0%	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	48.9	37.5%	15	15	15		15		15		15	
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1%										
OH	50.8	51.1	61.5%	20	20	20	20	20		20	20		20
OK	42.8	35.2	0.1%										
OR	53.6	56.2	99.0%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
PA	54.2	54.1	97.5%	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
RI	65.6	64.2	99.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
SC	44.4	47.5	20.2%						8				
SD	44.5	44.8	0.1%										
TN	50.5	50.8	57.7%			11		11		11			
TX	44.3	42.6	0.1%										
UT	33.6	29.7	0.1%										
VT	59.4	60.1	99.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	48.5	31.7%	13		13	13		13		13		
WA	55.9	55.1	99.0%	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
WV*	54.0	47.2	16.4%	5				5	5			5	
WI	52.7	55.0	99.0%	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.1%										

[MidwestTransplant]

1. Thanks for the update!

[TruthIsAll]

6. TIA Kerry Forecast Models: National - 53.87%; State- 52.92% ; 326 EV

State Vote EV Simulation Model

52.42 (July 2)
52.17
52.29
52.35
52.30
52.25
52.48
52.91
52.85
52.92 (July 17)

[TruthIsAll]

7. TIA ELECTION FORECAST MODELS: Kerry 52.92%, 330EV

TIA NATIONAL POLLING PROJECTION MODEL						
Kerry proj.	53.87%	of two-party vote.				

TIA FORECAST SIMULATION MODEL (STATE POLLING DATA)						
State Poll Data Source: Electoral-Vote.com as
of			7/18/2004			

Kerry Base Case Forecast Summary (see below)						
Probability of Win: 		100%				
Vote Percentage:		52.92%	of two-party vote			
Electoral Votes: 		330	(average of 100 trials)			
Simulation Wins: 		100	of 100 trial runs			
						
						
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION SUMMARY						
				
Data is downloaded to Excel for the forecasting model.				
One hundred (100)  trials are run in each simulation.				
				
Simulation I: Conservative Case 				
Kerry allocation: 	60%	of undecided/other votes.		
Kerry won 	96	trials with 	52.00%	of the vote.
Kerry won an average of		311	electoral votes.	
His maximum total was		371		
His minimum was total		233		
				
Simulation II: Most likely Case 				
Kerry allocation: 	70%	of undecided/other votes.		
Kerry won 	100	trials with 	52.92%	of the vote.
Kerry won an average of		330	electoral votes.	
His maximum total was		362		
His minimum was total		283					
							
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 							
Kerry allocation: 	80%	of undecided/other votes.					
Kerry won 	100	trials with 	53.83%	of the vote.			
Kerry won an average of		349	electoral votes.				
His maximum total was		401					
His minimum was total		297					
							
							

							
Compare to Other Election Predictors:							
Site	Kerry	Bush					
EP	291	247					
http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html							
EVP	292	246		
http://www.electoral-vote.com/				
MyDD	316	222		
http://www.mydd.com/outlook/president				
R04	264	261		
http://www.race2004.net/				
Rasm	247	203		
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm				


LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS				
(in millions of votes)				
Dem	138.75	52.60%		
Rep	125.03	47.40%		

				

BUSH JOB APPROVAL												
The data source is PollingReport.com    												
												
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
Jan.	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
Feb.	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
Mar.	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
Apr.	48.80	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
May	45.20	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
June	47.00	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
July	47.40	48	na	na	na	na	45	na	na	45	50	49
												
												
												
												
						
TIA NATIONAL POLL AVERAGE PROJECTION METHODOLOGY						
						
The data source is PollingReport.com    						
Monthly polling data from: 						
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME						
						
						
The projection is based on latest month average of the ten
polls.						
The average is adjusted by allocating the undecided/other
voters to Kerry and Bush..						
Assume 70% of undecided/others are allocated to Kerry.						
						
	Poll Averages			Projection		
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	42.50	50.17	-11.50	46.48	53.52	-7.03
Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	52.60	47.40	5.20
Mar	48.13	44.38	3.75	53.38	46.63	6.75		
Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	52.80	47.20	5.60		
May	47.11	44.22	2.89	53.18	46.82	6.36		
June	47.13	45.00	2.13	52.64	47.36	5.28		
July	49.57	44.29	5.29	53.87	46.13	7.74		
								
								
Kerry National Poll Projection Formula:								
10-Poll Avg 	49.57							
+ allocation	4.30							
= Projection:	53.87	% of total vote.						
								
								
TIA ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY								

Kerry's vote % is weighted by each state's percentage of the
total vote in the last 3 elections..								

Kerry's projected % for each state is based on the latest
state poll, adjusted													
by the allocation of undecided/other voters.													

The probability of Kerry winning a state is determined by the
current poll spread between Kerry and Bush, compared to the
MoE. 													
Obviously, the greater the spread, the greater the probability
Kerry will win the state.													


Simulation II	70%	Undecided/other to Kerry											
Summary	Wins	Pct	Avg EV	Max EV	Min EV								
Kerry	100	52.92%	330	362	283								
Bush	0	47.08%	208	255	176								


State	Hist.	Proj.	Prob.	Ten EV Simulation Trials									
	Dem%	Kerry%	Kerry	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
	52.60%	52.92%	Win	295	348	342	325	292	327	350	341	347	334
													
AL	44.8	45.0	1.0%										
AK	37.6	40.7	0.1%										
AZ	48.8	47.2	16.4%						10		10		
AR	55.2	50.6	55.8%	6	6	6		6	6				6
CA	57.4	57.2	99.0%	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
CO	48.8	49.3	41.4%		9	9			9	9			9
CT	57.7	62.6	99.0%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	99.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	
DC	90.3	90.4	99.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	53.3	88.4%		27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
GA	47.6	45.9	1.0%										
HI	59.0	60.9	99.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.1%										
IL	57.9	60.0	99.0%	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	1.0%										
IA	51.8	53.6	95.0%	7	7	7	7		7	7	7	7	7
KS	42.4	41.6	0.1%										
KY	46.7	45.3	1.0%										
LA	49.2	49.0	37.5%	9			9				9	9	
ME	57.1	52.3	76.9%	4	4	4	4		4	4	4	4	4
MD	57.8	58.6	99.0%	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	66.3	99.0%	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	54.2	97.5%	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
MN	55.7	53.3	88.4%	10	10	10	10		10	10	10	10	10
MS	44.3	36.3	0.1%										
MO	52.5	52.1	75.0%	11	11	11		11	11	11	11	11	11
MT	44.9	42.8	0.1%										
NE	37.5	36.5	0.1%										
NV	49.9	51.4	65.4%	5		5	5	5			5	5	5
NH	51.7	56.7	99.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
NJ	56.5	56.6	99.0%	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	55.3	99.0%	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
NY	62.6	66.4	99.0%	31	31	31	31	31		31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	48.9	37.5%		15				15	15	15		15
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1%										
OH	50.8	51.1	61.5%			20	20					20	
OK	42.8	35.2	0.1%										
OR	53.6	56.2	99.0%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
PA	54.2	54.1	97.5%	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
RI	65.6	64.2	99.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
SC	44.4	47.5	20.2%										
SD	44.5	44.8	0.1%										
TN	50.5	50.8	57.7%		11				11	11		11	
TX	44.3	42.6	0.1%										
UT	33.6	29.7	0.1%										
VT	59.4	60.1	99.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	48.5	31.7%							13			
WA	55.9	55.1	99.0%	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
WV*	54.0	47.2	16.4%		5				5				
WI	52.7	55.0	99.0%	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.1%										

[qazplm]

2. over on Dale's ECB

he does come up with a decently convincing argument that the idea that most undecided break towards the challenger is a myth.

He goes back quite awhile to show it actually ends up breaking for the incumbent in presidential elections more often than the challenger.

I think it better to assume a 50-50 break of undecideds...maybe it's over conservative, but it would give a "lower limit" perhaps to the predictions.

[TruthIsAll]

3. The Incumbent Rule is....

In fact, a Repub polling firm last week predicted the undecided will go to Kerry.

I have posted the Kerry % of the final vote based on the latest nationwide and state polls, which were adjusted assuming that 70% of the undecideds will break for Kerry. The rationale is that undecideds tend to vote against an incumbent, otherwise they would have already committed to vote for him/her, who they know very well.
On the other hand, undecideds are ready to committ to the comparatively unknown challenger, who they are just getting to know. They just want him to close the sale. If he does, he gets their vote.

John Kerry and John Edwards are closing the sale.

The Incumbent Rule
http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

How will undecideds vote on election day? Traditionally, there have been two schools of thought about how undecideds in trial heat match-ups will divide up at the ballot box. One is that they will break equally; the other, that they will split in proportion to poll respondents who stated a candidate preference.

But our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an incumbent, the traditional answers are wrong. Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.

The 155 polls we collected and analyzed were the final polls conducted in each particular race; most were completed within two weeks of election day. They cover both general and primary elections, and Democratic and Republican incumbents. They are predominantly from statewide races, with a few U.S. House, mayoral and countywide contests thrown in. Most are from the 1986 and 1988 elections, although a few stretch back to the 1970s.

The polls we studied included our own surveys, polls provided to us directly by CBS, Gallup, Gordon S. Black Corp., Market Opinion Research, Tarrance Associates, and Mason-Dixon Opinion Research, as well as polls that appeared in The Polling Report.

In 127 cases out of 155, most or all of the undecideds went for the challenger:


DISPOSITION OF UNDECIDED VOTERS
.

Most to challenger 127
Split equally 9
Most to incumbent 19



more...

[qazplm]

4. yeah he addressed that

and looked at their numbers, he did a good job of showing they weren't particularly convincing.

And since this firm only works for republicans why would they release a "confidential memo"?

I think it's misdirection personally.

I don't trust that we can count on undecideds breaking towards Kerry personally, I think the safe assumption is the break will be even, and Kerry is going to HAVE to either:

1. win over more of his base than Bush
2. win some liberal Republicans
3. that turnout this election is unpredictable and favoring Kerry

[qazplm]

5. I think you have to look at JUST PResidential

elections, I think that's a more accurate apples to apples comparison.

[tritsofme]

8. How many undecideds will there be in the last few weeks of October?

that's when your model may become useful, that's what your report is referring to. Not July polls.

[TruthIsAll]

9. The model must be run now and not wait for October because...

Disillusioned Bush supporters are moving into the undecided/other column, whether from viewing F9/11, losing a job, Iraq, intel, Plame.

I include Nader supporters in that "other" group, as well. Nader is also losing supporters to Kerry every day (they do not move to Bush). Meanwhile, this "other" group is constantly being replenished by the Bush defectors.

Consider the undecided/other column as a transhipment point, a waystation.

There is virtually no movement from Kerry to Bush.

There is movement from Nader ("other") to Kerry.
There is movement from Bush to "undecided".
There is movement from "undecided" to Kerry.
There is direct movement from Bush to Kerry.

The undecided/other group is dynamic, not fixed, yet it appears constant. This bodes very well for Kerry. As his spread over Bush increases, the undecided/other group is constantly being replenished with future Kerry supporters.

I suspect a landslide is developing as Kerry moves toward a critical mass of support. At the same time, the probability of a Bush defeat approaches 100% (when Kerry has a solid 10% lead).

[tritsofme]

10. Or might we be watching an Edwards bounce that will be shortly followed

by a Convention bounce?

With no real permanent move toward Kerry, since this movement could be reversed toward the end of August of the goppers have their convention?

I'm looking at a very tight race all the way to the end.

You're looking for a Kerry landslide.

I hope you're right.

[TruthIsAll]

11. GOP firm claimss undecideds will go for Kerry

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x581200

[tritsofme]

13. I understand the theory

But polls will look very different in July than they will look in the final weeks of October.

And the race could swing wildly between then.

[TruthIsAll]

14. I disagree. The Kerry trend is steady and not likely to

reverse course.

Bush is sinking. Those who have switched from Bush to Kerry will NOT be going back.

They know they have been fooled more than once by Bush. He cannot regain any credibility. His fear is obvious. Rove is desperate to find a wedge issue: gay marriage, avoid the NAACP, Whoopie Goldberg

The bandwagon effect will soon take hold. Plame indictmets are right around the corner.

The Dem convention will provided a further, insurmountable bounce.
At the Repuke convention in NYC, he will try to use for 9/11 political advantage as he has all along. This will backfire as a million protesters take to the streets.

Howard Stern's influence grows daily. F9/11 gross has passed $100 mm.
Even Nascar guys are going to see F9/11.

All this means one thing. There will be an October Surprise. Maybe even sooner. But it won't work. It will be like the Terror Alerts. No one believes them anymore.

[tritsofme]

15. I just don't see that happening

I can't envision a landslide by either candidate at this point.

Rasmussen's robots are already back to 46-46.

And things like the Plame Scandal get deep sixed by the media, and all we have heard the past week is that Joe Wilson is an idiot. I don't think things like that will have a great impact on the electorate.

I think you will be surprised in late August/early September when the race swings back bush and remains tight until the election.

Like I said, I hope you're right, but I don't think you will be.

[dbt]

12. A basket of props to you, TIA!

THANK YOU for this continuing work. Given a Media that did not have its lips glued to bu$h's ass, this would be Breaking News. Something on the order of:

Bush Faces Resounding Defeat In November

Instead, we will continue to get flaming puppies and Martha Stewart. Please keep your analyses coming, whether or not they bode ill for bu$h.

:bounce:
dbt

[swag]

16. This jibes well with Prof. Siegel's recent Kerry 311 EV

projection based on tradesports.com state-by-state futures contracts.

But I'm starting to trust TIA's analysis a bit more than the aggregate bets of the Irish gambling site.

I'm cautiously optimistic. Thank you.

[senseandsensibility]

17. Thanks for

all the hard work, TIA. I don't pretend to be an expect on polls, statistics or mathematics, but I was impressed when I read your list of degrees in another post. Obviously, your findings will be challenged by some, but I enjoy reading them. They present the facts in a way that the mediawhores never will. You're providing a needed service, and I really, really, really, hope that all you predict comes true in November!:party: