46% Say Kerry Will Win (Rasmussen)

[skooooo]

http://rasmussenreports.com/Who%20Will%20Win%20July%2016.htm

46% Say Kerry Will Win
45% Expect Bush to Triumph


Thursday, July 16, 2004--Regardless of who they plan to vote for, 46% of all voters now believe the Kerry-Edward team will win while 45% say the Bush-Cheney ticket will be re-elected.

While the one-point advantage is statistically insignificant, it's the first time that a plurality has expected a victory for the Democrats. Last week, 46% thought Bush would win while 44% said they expected a Kerry victory. That's quite a change from a month ago when 53% of American voters believed Bush would be re-elected and just 35% said Kerry would win.

The biggest difference is that Democrats are a lot more confident today than they were a month ago. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Kerry voters believe their man will win. That's up thirteen points from 70% a month ago.

Among liberal voters, 72% think Kerry will win. That's up from 64% a week ago and 49% a month ago.

[Justice]

1. Confidence Is Excellent; But Let's Not Get Cocky....

let's keep our heads down and work.

I just received by Kerry/Edwards gear today. I am headed to a swing state tomorrow to give it out to my family and friends so they can use it/put it on their cars (buttons, bumper stickets, nice pins and signs)

[IronLionZion]

2. The first step is believing we can win

If we don't believe it, it definitely won't happen.

We also need to ensure a fair election and a large turnout.

After that, its up to Kerry and Edwards to get their message out.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. I have no doubt that Kerry/Edwards will win nationally

I am just working for them to win here in Montana, where I am not as confident in my predictions.

[gristy]

4. This is a dumb poll

All it does is contribute to a herd mentality among the electorate. Next, they'll be asking

- Do you think Kerry's polling numbers will be higher or lower four weeks from now?
- Do you think Bush will drop Cheney from the ticket?
- Do you think it will rain tomorrow?
- Do you think your cat has fleas?

I mean, who cares?

[Davis_X_Machina]

5. It may be dumb...

...but the 'get out there and vote for the winner' impulse is strong, especially among independents.

After elections, even close ones, people claim they voted for the winner 65-35%.

This poll is good news.

[gratuitous]

9. Yes, it's dumb

But it appeals to a certain mentality. I personally don't give a flying Cheney why someone votes for Kerry, I'll just take it. Any number of people will vote for the candidate they "like" or who's "prettiest" or some other incredibly dumb rationale. Similarly, there is no shortage of people who vote for the person they think is going to win.

People want to identify with winners and are excited to be on the winning side. You think all those people who turned out for the Pistons recent championship parade are season ticket holders? Or who were staunch, loyal fans who never missed a game between the last championship and this one? Uh uh.

If the public perception is that Kerry is the winner, that has a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of allure. It's also why the Republicans were hitting so heavily during the Florida fiasco that their guy had won, and that the votes had been counted and recounted. It was a bald-faced lie, of course, but the stampede of public opinion was goaded in that direction by relentless repetition of that lie.

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. Expanding on your last point

If people expect Kerry to win, it makes it more difficult for any vote stealing by the Republicans through the block box machines. The more unbelievable the result, the more people will smell a rat.

[Beloved Citizen]

12. Nothing rankles a DUer like good news

The question "who do you think is going to win" is pretty much a universal not only in political polling, but in sports talk, casino betting, schoolyard games, turtle racing, mumbletypeg, just about anything that involves fair competition and the possibility of someone coming out on top.

It is a question as old as the human race.

[Mz Pip]

6. Grrrr

Love the wording: Kerry -Win; Bush - TRIUMPH!

For Kerry it's just a win.
For Bush it's a triumph.

I don't know the political leaning of this group but that headline is pretty blatant.

MzPip
:dem:

[BillZBubb]

7. Yeah, I caught that too!

Would you rather have a measly win, or a TRIUMPH! Not too obvious...

[Renew Deal]

8. Lots of people I talk to think Bush can't win.

Even people that mildly support him think he will lose. They think that there has been too much shit going down, that he can't win.

I have heard the not dumping a president during war argument. That's BS. Especially considering he lied to get us into an unwinnable war.

[DaveSZ]

11. What do you expect?

Fox News loves to quote Rasmussen.

The fact he even has Kerry ahead is really something.