What % will F9/11 add to the Kerry vote?

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=696531#697477


by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- According to the most recent Gallup survey,
more than half of all American adults (56%) either have seen
or expect, at some time, to see Michael Moore's controversial
movie, Fahrenheit 9/11, a highly critical look at the Bush
administration's decision to fight a war in Iraq. The poll
was conducted July 8-11. At the time, 8% of Americans said
they have already seen the movie, 18% expected to see it in
the theater, and 30% expected to watch the video. Among all
Americans, more people have an unfavorable than favorable
impression of the movie, but those who have seen it are
overwhelmingly favorable.

Intentions to see the film are highly related to people's
political party orientation, but the survey shows that even a
significant number of Republicans -- 38% -- have seen or plan
to see the documentary despite its critical stance toward
Bush. More than 7 in 10 Democrats (71%) and 6 in 10
independents (60%) also have seen or expect to see the film,
with about half of each of these groups planning to see it in
a theater and the other half on video.

more....
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I estimate F9/11 will gain over 3% for Kerry.

Here are my assumptions.
Voters are split evenly between Dems, Repubs and Independents

10% of registered Dems vote Rep.
and 10% of them switch to Kerry

10% of registered Reps vote Dem.
and 10% of the other 90% switch to Kerry

50% of registered indies vote Rep.
and 20% of them switch to Kerry



Party Share Vote F911 Chg Wtd%Chg
Dem 0.333 0.10 0.71 0.10 0.24%
Ind 0.333 0.50 0.60 0.20 2.00%
Rep 0.333 0.90 0.38 0.10 1.14%

Adding up the last column, Kerry will get 3.38%