Probability of a Kerry win is 98 percent

[59millionmorons]

Princeton Professor Sam Wang says Sen. John Kerry would win: "Counting the last six polls, the current probability of a Kerry win is 98 percent

http://politicalwire.com/

[SunDrop23]

1. Call me crazy (you better not) but I sense a Kerry LANDSLIDE

[brainshrub]

2. If it isn't a landslide

the BBV machines will take over & we're fucked.

[emulatorloo]

13. Tweety was doing a whole historical thing on Sunday's Chris Matthews Show

and predicting that the election would NOT be close.

Said in elections w incumbent. . .if skies are blue (economy good, peace) incumbent re-elected with wide margin

if skies are cloudy (mired in war, economy bad) incumbent loses w wide margin.

Even if it looks close 3 months out.

So let's keep working to move this thing along!!!!!

[NewJeffCT]

22. good point, but...

We need to get our message out that the economy, after some good news earlier this year, has been hit by a series of bad news lately (last month's job numbers were very disappointing, durable goods orders have been down 2 months in a row, etc...)

However, it's getting lost in the MassMedia blather that the economy is doing great because corporate profits are soaring.

[KurtNYC]

32. Yes! Need to flip House seats and Media outlets

People and media outlets that support a second Bush term should be shamed for the Constitution-hating, results-ignoring partisans that they are. '4 more years of lies, illegal wars, currency devaluation, recession, deficits, and treason?' -- Why do they hate America so much?!

If this keeps up we may even get around to kicking Zell Miller's butt out.

[Canuckistanian]

35. Good to know they're using science to make these predictions

Although reading entrails is still popular, I hear

[ClassWarrior]

29. The only way it's going to be a landslide...

...is if WE work our tails off for JK/JE every day till November 2nd.

But you're right - it IS within our grasp!

[SammyWinstonJack]

38. It should be a landslide

Can't imagine why it wouldn't be at this point! :shrug:

[bobbieinok]

40. RW MEDIA SPIN 24/7

[lucky777]

3. I think we'll lose -- but I'm always a pessimist

I think Bush will get a big boost from his convention, and he probably has some October surprise.

Also, Bush is good at manipulating the news, muddying the waters, creating scandals, etc.

Plus Kerry has no personality, let's face it.

I think it will be close, but FL will be the key state again, presuming OH and PA split.

But I'm always pessimistic.

[john-john]

7. Don't be!!!!!

I really feel the American people are finally understanding what Smirky and snarrly are all about. If they don't believe how great a ticket we have after watching "The Kid" and Elizabeth tonight there is NO hope!!!

A LOYAL DEMOCRAT SINCE 68 and PROUD TO HAVE JENIFFER AS MY GOVERNOR!!!!

[Kahuna]

10. Welcome to DU john-john! Glad to have an optimist aboard!

:hi:

[pinto]

11. Welcome to DU, john-john!

:kick:

[newyawker99]

25. Hi john-john!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[KurtNYC]

33. Optimism is a weapon we need more of

I seem to get hammered everytime I say something confident on here. It makes it that much easier to steal an election if we expect it to happen.

We should be beating up THEIR morale. Many Republicans, in the words of Dylan, "only want to be on the side that's winning." And the wheels are coming off of the GOP bandwagon. CNN has turned to weighting its polls to keep the real spread from showing. They know the power of expectations and we should too. Nothing wrong with preparing for the worst but the more we can expand this feeling that Kerry is inevitably going to be President, the better. Personally I won't be waiting until after the election to tell Repugs to "get over it!"

[calimary]

39. "Smirky and Snarly" - HILARIOUS!!!

Welcome to DU! The day Edwards was announced as Kerry's running-mate, I went around smiling all day, and telling everyone I met to smile, also, because it was John-John Day!

[emulatorloo]

14. Don;t be glum, see my post 13, and work your butt off

Actually Kerry has a nice personality. . .it will shine more as time goes on and w edwards at his side.

Really, it is not like Bush/Cheney are Lennon/McCartney or anything.

[AlCzervik]

15. Don't be sending those vibes out there

think about how bad that would be for the country, I'm a cynic, always have been but i am convinced Kerry will win, i have a daughter and there is no way i want Dumbass having a say in the kind of world all of our children will live in.

[Octafish]

19. "No personality?"

Gee. You must have missed Kerry:

Fighting the war in Vietnam courageously and bringing back all his men alive. That required personality.

Fighting the War Party in Washington and helping end the war in Vietnam when he came home. That required personality.

Running for Congress and losing, then coming back as a Massachusetts state prosecutor to bust the Mafia #2. That required personality.

Leading the fight against organized corruption that was the Reagan-Bush White House in the form of BCCI and Iran-Contra drug running investigations. That required personality.

There are a lot more. This is a just a sample of the kind of personality John Kerry has -- a winning personality.

[NewJeffCT]

20. I'm a pessimist, too

The Bush White House guys make Nixon's CREEP gang look like Mother Theresa.

Remember Kennedy nixing a Pentagon plan to perpetrate terror attacks in the US and blame them on Cuba? Do you think Bush/Cheney would nix similar plans to blame US terror attacks on Al Qaeda to create an atmosphere of fear? Remember, if we have any attacks in this country, Faux News, CNN & the media will take up the drumbeat that it's Clinton's fault and that we must rally 'round our heroic War President in this time of crisis.

[NicRic]

23. Optimistic on win ,worried about 2nd steal !

I believe that Kerry/Edwards will get a big boost from the Dem. convention ,that will have bush playing catch up. Already their desperation is showing and they just dont have as much brain power ,to overcome the surge in the polls Kerry and Edwards will have after the convention. The repug convention ,will be trying so hard to keep its base inline that they will push moderates on the fence over to our side . bush will not get the expected boost from the repug convention ,just a few points ,when they will need a 12 point boost. During the repug convention ,there will be many apperances going on by multible groups,that have one thing in common ,bush must go in 2004. I just can not believe as a whole the American voters would elect bush, this will only happen thru another steal ,which is unlikley, cause its going to be so closley monitored. The most important thing as Dems we can do is convince people we know that are Dems that make a habit of not voting on election day ,"I was to busy" or "Our guy is ahead and will win without my vote" etc. , that this is an election they must vote in ,there is to much at stake. If that means bringing them a registration form , giving them a ride on election day to the polls. If the Dems turn out in droves to vote this current idiot in office out, well he might as well start packing now!

[bobbieinok]

41. and how much media coverage of campaign and how much spin??

remember how Gore got a big boost out of the convention...and how that was spun away within 2 weeks or so?????????????????????

there's a DU thread showing how much less coverage the democrats are getting

MOST PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE INTERNET ACCESS AND/OR DO NOT REALIZE THEY CAN GET POLITICAL INFO WITH IT

WITH OR WITHOUT INTERNET, MOST PEOPLE GET THEIR POLITICAL INFO FROM TV AND RADIO

there was a thread today about Glen Beck (RW talk show host) and his spin on the 911 ...... report

...most posters said in essence 'what a know-nothing jerk!'...a few tried to make clear that in many areas where he is on the air, many people listen to him and believe him..........and this is their perception of US politics......that's a fact, unpleasant as many of us find it

[lancdem]

27. There very well be an October surprise

but Kerry is preparing for every eventuality.

[WindRavenX]

4. We must campaign as if we are behind

I have no doubt the tide is turning, but to believe that we have this election in the bag is simply a very foolish way to think about things.

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[WindRavenX]

6. I know, that's why we shouldn't let our heads swell w/ the new polls out

It's a good sign, but the campaign shouldn't get cocky.

[Longhorn]

8. DU's own TruthIsAll has also predicted a Kerry win

with 99.9% probability. We won't let up one iota but it's nice to visualize!

Edit: Wrong TIA! :)

[TruthIsAll]

30. TruthIsAll: latest 7/21 best case Kerry win probability is 97.4%

tia

[Longhorn]

31. Did it change since a couple of days ago or did I remember it wrong?

[TruthIsAll]

36. You must be referring the best case (80%) allocation

of other voters to Kerry. Here the simulation prob is 99%.

The most likely case (70%) produces a 97-98% probability, depending on the current poll mix.

[whistle]

9. Remember what Yogi Berra said....

..."It ain't over till it's over"

He also said many other wise things and just for chuckles here are some of them:

"Texas has a lot of electrical votes." -- During an election campaign, after George Bush stated that Texas was important to the election.

"This is like deja vu all over again."

"You can observe a lot just by watching."

"He must have made that before he died." -- Referring to a Steve McQueen movie.

"I want to thank you for making this day necessary." -- On Yogi Berra Appreciation Day in St. Louis in 1947.

"I'd find the fellow who lost it, and, if he was poor, I'd return it." -- When asked what he would do if he found a million dollars.

This last statement convinces me that Yogi is DU material....

"Think! How the hell are you gonna think and hit at the same time?"

"You've got to be very careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there."

"I knew I was going to take the wrong train, so I left early."

"If you don't know where you are going, you will wind up somewhere else."

"If you can't imitate him, don't copy him."

"You better cut the pizza in four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six."

"Baseball is 90% mental -- the other half is physical."

"It was impossible to get a conversation going; everybody was talking too much."

"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting."

"A nickel isn't worth a dime today."

"Nobody goes there anymore; it's too crowded."

"It gets late early out there." -- Referring to the bad sun conditions in left field at the stadium.

"Glen Cove." -- Referring to Glenn Close on a movie review television show.

Once, Yogi's wife Carmen asked, "Yogi, you are from St. Louis, we live in New Jersey, and you played ball in New York. If you go before I do, where would you like me to have you buried?" Yogi replied, "Surprise me."

"Do you mean now?" -- When asked for the time.

"I take a two hour nap, from one o'clock to four."

"If you come to a fork in the road, take it."

"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough in the second half you give what's left."

"90% of the putts that are short don't go in."

"I made a wrong mistake."


"Thanks, you don't look so hot yourself." -- After being told he looked cool.

"I always thought that record would stand until it was broken."

"Yeah, but we're making great time!" -- In reply to "Hey Yogi, I think we're lost."

"If the fans don't come out to the ball park, you can't stop them."

"Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel."

"It's never happened in the World Series competition, and it still hasn't."

"How long have you known me, Jack? And you still don't know how to spell my name." -- Upon receiving a check from Jack Buck made out to "bearer."

"I'd say he's done more than that." -- When asked if first baseman Don Mattingly had exceeded expectations for the current season.

"The other teams could make trouble for us if they win."

"He can run anytime he wants. I'm giving him the red light." -- On the acquisition of fleet Ricky Henderson.

"I never blame myself when I'm not hitting. I just blame the bat, and if it keeps up, I change bats. After all, if I know it isn't my fault that I'm not hitting, how can I get mad at myself?"

"It ain't the heat; it's the humility."

"The towels were so thick there I could hardly close my suitcase."

"You should always go to other people's funerals; otherwise, they won't come to yours."

"I didn't really say everything I said."

[NJCher]

16. an aside

Those were great. I'm laughing my head off.

I used to live in the same town as Yogi Berra. He was often seen in the local paper.

This town has the unique feature of having more Ph.Ds per 1000 than any other town in NJ. What a place for Yogi to choose to live!


Cher

[struggle4progress]

12. We CAN win a fair fight. BUT the fight may NOT be fair. AND ...

the fact that we CAN win doesn't mean we WILL.

Wouldn't a landslide be LOVELY?

LET'S GET ORGANIZED TO KICK BUTT! :kick:

[OnionPatch]

17. Yeah! Predictions or no.....

I'm working my butt off for this election like my life depended on it! Because it does for some people. (Aren't the Iranians next on the list?) I also have a daughter and I can't let her world be controlled by these deranged people. There's too much riding on this election. I don't think I could rest if I wanted to until it's over.
I'm also a little worried hearing people say, "I live in California, so it's safe for me to go ahead and vote Nader..." NO, IT'S NOT! What if everyone does this? We already have the gropinator, please don't further shame California by allowing it to go to Bush! (Ok, I live in a red area of CA so I'm a little skiddish.)

[connecticut yankee]

18. Is that with or without

Republican sabotage?

I wouldn't put anything past those creeps. I'm sure they've got all their plans made.

We must be vigilant!

And never let up!

[indepat]

21. Ever wonder how GWB can state with certainty he will win in November?

[KurtNYC]

34. The same way he states everything else with certainty

the smirk will be gone though

[IronLionZion]

24. It won't be close

We need to get a huge lead or the Republicans will cheat again. It's good how people are addressing the voter purges, felons lists, Diebold machines and so on.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

26. TruthIsAll says 95% (I believe)

So I see we have good agreement from the "experts". :)

[lancdem]

28. This explains the Sandy Berger pseudo-scandal

and the WH efforts to keep it alive.

[namvet73]

37. Kerry WILL WIN! (Pygmalion Effect)

How many times do you hear a candidate say "I might lose."? Never
How many times do you hear a candidate say "I might win."? I never did.

It's usually: "I will win." or "When I win the election I will..."

Because they understand the Pygmalion effect.

Repeated experiments have have shown that things are more likely to happen if we expect them to happen or if we express high expectations.

Self–fulfilling prophecy- The Pygmalion Effect


The concept of the self-fulfilling prophecy can be summarized in these key principles:
- We form certain expectations of people or events
- We communicate those expectations with various cues.
- People tend to respond to these cues by adjusting their behavior to match them.
- The result is that the original expectation becomes true.
This creates a circle of self-fulfilling prophecies.

http://members.fortunecity.com/nadabs/prophecy.html

[Van23]

42. Don't

get cocky, folks! It ain't over 'till it's over! Keep fighting.

[nomaco-10]

43. Anything can happen.....

to sway the vote either way. It's way too early to say with any certainty who will win. Usama Bin Laden could be captured, we could be attacked again, there could be a sex scandal, we have the debates, the US death toll could reach the magic number of 1,000 by November generating alot of media attention, election fraud and hanging chads may come into play as well as the ever present Nader factor. It's anybody's race to win or loose at this point, but that could change weekly between now and November.

The race shouldn't even be this close at this point as far as I'm concerned. Kerry should be 20 points ahead of bush*. I hope Kerry energizes the party at the convention and can pull off an inspiring speech. I think the convention is key to showcasing Kerry as a viable candidate to the American people. It would be a good start anyway.