Confirmation of Kerry Win Probability Model: National 96.7%; State 97.4%

[TruthIsAll]

I have calculated the probability of Kerry wining the election
using two different methods. In both cases I assume Kerry gets
70% of the undecided/Nader vote.

The results are interesting.

1- Latest average of 10 national polls and Kerry’s projected
vote %.
 I assume an MoE of .025 for the 10-poll average.

Kerry has a 96.7% probability of winning using this method.

Note: If Kerry and Bush split the allocation in the same
proportion as their average polling numbers (Kerry  leads by
48.5% - 44.1 %) then Kerry’s probability of a win is 88.3%

2- Latest state polling data. I use Monte Carlo simulation
(1000 trials) to calculate the electoral votes for the states
which Kerry wins in each trial run. 
I assume an MoE of .04 for each state poll. 

Kerry has a 97.4 % probability of winning using this method.

BOTTOM LINE: The state polls confirm the national polls.


NATIONAL POLLS: PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

	Latest Polls	.50 alloc -.70 alloc	
       Kerry	Bush 	P (win)	Proj	P (win)
				
IBD	44	41	72.2%	54.5	93.3%
ABC	46	46	50.0%	51.6	70.3%
NWK	51	45	85.1%	53.8	89.7%
ARG	49	45	76.1%	53.2	85.7%
NBC	54	43	97.1%	56.1	97.9%
CBS	49	44	81.5%	53.9	90.3%
PEW	46	44	64.4%	53.0	84.1%
LAT	51	44	89.0%	54.5	93.3%
ZOGBY	46	44	64.4%	53.0	84.1%
TIME	49	45	76.1%	53.2	85.7%
					
AVG	48.50	44.10	88.3%	53.7	96.7%


STATE POLLS:  SIMULATION ANALYSIS

Most Likely Case											
Assume	70%	Undecided/other to Kerry									
Win	Prob.	Pct	EV										
Kerry	97.4%	52.9%	329										
Bush	2.6%	47.1%	209										
													
State Electoral Vote Simulation: Historical Voting, Kerry
Projection and Win Probability 					

Note: Dem% is Democratic % of the two-party vote in the last
three pres. Elections						
													
Hist%	Dem%	Kerry	Kerry	EV Trials runs 1-10 of 1000							
Kerry	Vote	Proj.	Prob.	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Proj.	52.60%	52.92%	Win	357	350	322	270	342	375	333	326	345	296
													
AL	44.8	45.0%	10.6%										
AK	37.6	40.7%	1.0%										
AZ	48.8	53.9%	83.5%		10			10	10	10	10	10	10
AR	55.2	50.6%	56.0%			6			6	6			
CA	57.4	57.2%	96.4%	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	
													
CO	48.8	49.3%	43.1%	9	9			9		9		9	9
CT	57.7	62.6%	99.9%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1%	96.2%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
DC	90.3	90.4%	100.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	53.3%	79.5%	27	27		27	27	27	27	27	27	27
													
GA	47.6	45.9%	15.3%		15			15					
HI	59.0	60.9%	99.7%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0%	0.3%										
IL	57.9	60.0%	99.4%	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9%	15.3%	11									
													
IA	51.8	53.6%	81.6%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
KS	42.4	41.6%	1.8%					6					
KY	46.7	45.3%	12.0%									8	
LA	49.2	49.0%	40.1%	9	9				9		9		9
ME	57.1	52.3%	71.7%	4	4	4		4	4	4	4	4	
													
MD	57.8	58.6%	98.4%	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	66.7%	100.0%	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	53.0%	77.3%	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
MN	55.7	53.0%	77.3%	10	10	10			10		10	10	10
MS	44.3	36.3%	0.0%										
													
MO	52.5	52.1%	70.0%		11					11	11	11	
MT	44.9	42.8%	3.6%										
NE	37.5	36.5%	0.0%										
NV	49.9	51.4%	63.7%	5	5	5				5		5	5
NH	51.7	56.7%	95.3%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
NJ	56.5	56.6%	95.1%	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	55.3%	90.7%	5	5	5		5	5	5	5	5	5
NY	62.6	65.0%	100.0%	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	48.9%	39.2%						15				
ND	40.8	37.2%	0.1%										
													
OH	50.8	51.1%	60.8%			20		20	20				20
OK	42.8	39.2%	0.3%										
OR	53.6	56.2%	93.9%	7	7		7	7	7	7	7	7	7
PA	54.2	54.1%	84.7%	21	21		21	21	21	21	21	21	21
RI	65.6	64.2%	100.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
SC	44.4	47.5%	26.6%	8		8	8						
SD	44.5	44.8%	9.7%										
TN	50.5	50.8%	57.9%	11				11	11	11	11	11	11
TX	44.3	42.6%	3.2%			34							
UT	33.6	29.7%	0.0%										
													
VT	59.4	60.1%	99.4%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	48.5%	35.4%	13		13			13				
WA	55.9	55.1%	89.9%	11	11	11	11	11	11	11		11	11
WV	54.0	47.2%	24.2%								5		
WI	52.7	55.0%	89.4%	10	10	10			10	10	10	10	10
WY	38.3	30.8%	0.0%										
													
Avg	52.60%	52.92%	-	357	350	322	270	342	375	333	326	345	296