Gallup Approval and Horse Race Numbers for last 7 Incumbent Presidents

[tritsofme]

In a poll conducted July 19-21 2004 George W. Bush had approval rating of 49%.

In the horserace, Kerry leads Bush 49-47%.


In a poll conducted 7/26-28 1996, Bill Clinton has an approval rating of 57%.

In the horserace he led Dole and Perot, 48-30-10.


In a poll 7/23-24 1992, George Bush had an approval rating of 31%.

In the horserace Clinton led Bush 50-34. (Perot had dropped out)


In a poll conducted 7/19-20 1984, Ronald Regan had an approval rating of 51%.

In the horserace, Mondale led Reagan 44-42.


In a poll conducted 8/12 1980, Jimmy Carter had an approval rating of 32%.

In the horse race, Carter led Reagan and Anderson, 35-30-11.


I had to go all the back to 6/8/1976 to find an approval rating for Gerald Ford which was 45%. For some odd reason unbeknownst to me, that is the last time they asked for approval until after the election.

There was plenty of horserace data however. In all poll conducted 8/3/1976 Carter led Ford and McCarthy 53-30-6.


I had to go back to 6/20/1972 to find an approval rating for Richard Nixon which was 56%. The next one conducted was a composite poll through all of November which showed him at 61% approval.

In a survey conducted 08/01/1972 Nixon led McGovern 54-34.

[tritsofme]

1. kick

[lancdem]

2. Are you sure about the 1984 Reagan-Mondale number?

I'm pretty sure Reagan never trailed Mondale in 1984.

[tritsofme]

3. This is all the info it gives

Newsweek #84174 http://brain.gallup.com/questionnaire.aspx?tab=document&study=NEWSWEEK84174

Question: qn3a Field Date: 7/19/1984-7/20/1984
If the presidential election were being held TODAY. Which would you vote for -- the Republican candidates, Ronald Reagan and George Bush, or the Democratic candidates, Walter Mondale and Geraldine Ferraro?
Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Reagan-Bush 42.73 775

2 Mondale-Ferraro 44.42 805

3 Other 1.95 35

0 Don't know 10.90 198

Might have been convention bounce?

[lancdem]

4. According to this timeline on Gallup, Reagan had a nice lead

in July.

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=1252

[tritsofme]

5. Well here's the entire release, for what its worth

The Democratic Convention that year was July 16- 20.

Newsweek #84174

Field Date: 07/19/1984-07/20/1984
Sponsor: Newsweek
Methodology: Outbound Telephone
Population: National Adult


qn1 Is your name now recorded in the registration books of the precinct or election district where you now live? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Yes 99.79 1810

2 No 0.00 0

3 Don't have to register 0.21 4

0 Don't know 0.00 0



qn2 How much, if any, of the Democratic Convention proceedings did you watch on T.V. this week -- none of it, very little, some, or a great deal? Mean: 2.56 Total N: 1813


% N

1 None of it 20.33 369

2 Very little 26.70 484

3 Some 29.62 537

4 A great deal 23.22 421

0 NO ANSWER 0.12 2



qn3a If the presidential election were being held TODAY. Which would you vote for -- the Republican candidates, Ronald Reagan and George Bush, or the Democratic candidates, Walter Mondale and Geraldine Ferraro? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Reagan-Bush 42.73 775

2 Mondale-Ferraro 44.42 805

3 Other 1.95 35

0 Don't know 10.90 198



qn3b (If the presidential election were being held TODAY. Which would you vote for -- the Republican candidates, Ronald Reagan and George Bush, or the Democratic candidates, Walter Mondale and Geraldine Ferraro?) As of today, do you lean more to Reagan/Bush or to Mondale/Ferraro? Mean: N/A Total N: 233


% N

1 Reagan-Bush 26.19 61

2 Mondale-Ferraro 25.31 59

0 Don't know 48.50 113



qn3c (If the presidential election were being held TODAY. Which would you vote for -- the Republican candidates, Ronald Reagan and George Bush, or the Democratic candidates, Walter Mondale and Geraldine Ferraro?) Do you support (Reagan/Bush or Mondale/Ferraro) strongly or only moderately? Mean: N/A Total N: 1580


% N

1 Strongly 57.56 910

2 Moderately 40.47 640

0 Don't know 1.98 31



qn4 Compared to four years ago, would you say you are BETTER OFF economically, WORSE OFF economically, or ABOUT THE SAME? Mean: 2.11 Total N: 1813


% N

3 Better off 34.50 626

1 Worse off 23.68 429

2 About the same 40.42 733

0 Don't know 1.41 26



qn5 Compared to four years ago, would you say there is a GREATER chance of a nuclear war, a LESSER chance of a nuclear war, or about the SAME chance? Mean: 2.20 Total N: 1813


% N

3 Greater 31.65 574

1 Less 13.14 238

2 About the same 48.47 879

0 Don't know 6.75 122



qn6 In your opinion, which Presidential candidate, Ronald Reagan or Walter Mondale, would be better able to keep the country prosperous? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Reagan 45.52 825

2 Mondale 37.38 678

3 No difference (VOL.) 5.02 91

0 Don't know 12.08 219



qn7 In your opinion, which Presidential candidate, Ronald Reagan or Walter Mondale, would be better able to keep us out of war? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Reagan 34.35 623

2 Mondale 43.71 793

3 No difference (VOL.) 7.44 135

0 Don't know 14.51 263



qn8a I am going to read some phrases. For each, tell me whether you feel it better describes Ronald Reagan OR better describes Walter Mondale...Favors special interest groups? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Ronald Reagan 40.53 735

2 Walter Mondale 38.00 689

3 Neither (VOL.) 3.09 56

4 Both (VOL) 5.22 95

0 Don't Know 13.15 238



qn8b I am going to read some phrases. For each, tell me whether you feel it better describes Ronald Reagan OR better describes Walter Mondale...Cares about people like me? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Ronald Reagan 32.57 591

2 Walter Mondale 52.11 945

3 Neither (VOL.) 5.60 102

4 Both (VOL) 3.86 70

0 Don't Know 5.87 106



qn8c I am going to read some phrases. For each, tell me whether you feel it better describes Ronald Reagan OR better describes Walter Mondale...Can get things done? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Ronald Reagan 53.09 963

2 Walter Mondale 31.64 574

3 Neither (VOL.) 2.93 53

4 Both (VOL) 2.74 50

0 Don't Know 9.60 174



qn8d I am going to read some phrases. For each, tell me whether you feel it better describes Ronald Reagan OR better describes Walter Mondale...Would make the country proud of itself? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Ronald Reagan 46.11 836

2 Walter Mondale 38.85 705

3 Neither (VOL.) 3.20 58

4 Both (VOL) 5.79 105

0 Don't Know 6.05 110



qn8e I am going to read some phrases. For each, tell me whether you feel it better describes Ronald Reagan OR better describes Walter Mondale...Comes close to my way of thinking? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Ronald Reagan 39.35 714

2 Walter Mondale 46.73 847

3 Neither (VOL.) 6.85 124

4 Both (VOL) 0.87 16

0 Don't Know 6.21 113



qn8f I am going to read some phrases. For each, tell me whether you feel it better describes Ronald Reagan OR better describes Walter Mondale...Has a well defined program for progress? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Ronald Reagan 45.28 821

2 Walter Mondale 35.09 636

3 Neither (VOL.) 5.53 100

4 Both (VOL) 2.07 38

0 Don't Know 12.03 218



qn8g I am going to read some phrases. For each, tell me whether you feel it better describes Ronald Reagan OR better describes Walter Mondale...Treats all groups fairly? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Ronald Reagan 29.08 527

2 Walter Mondale 51.41 932

3 Neither (VOL.) 6.57 119

4 Both (VOL) 3.52 64

0 Don't Know 9.42 171



qn8h I am going to read some phrases. For each, tell me whether you feel it better describes Ronald Reagan OR better describes Walter Mondale...Forceful and decisive? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Ronald Reagan 58.17 1055

2 Walter Mondale 28.05 509

3 Neither (VOL.) 2.85 52

4 Both (VOL) 2.82 51

0 Don't Know 8.11 147



qn9a As I read a list, tell me if the following made you more likely or less likely to vote for Walter Mondale...What you saw or read of this week's Democratic Convention? Mean: 2.19 Total N: 1813


% N

3 More likely 44.70 811

1 Less likely 28.60 519

2 No difference (vol.) 12.13 220

0 Don't know 14.58 264



qn9b As I read a list, tell me if the following made you more likely or less likely to vote for Walter Mondale...Mondale's choice of Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate? Mean: 2.28 Total N: 1813


% N

3 More likely 52.38 950

1 Less likely 25.64 465

2 No difference (vol.) 18.28 332

0 Don't know 3.70 67



qn9c As I read a list, tell me if the following made you more likely or less likely to vote for Walter Mondale...Mondale's choice of Bert Lance to play a campaign role? Mean: 1.51 Total N: 1813


% N

3 More likely 14.35 260

1 Less likely 55.44 1005

2 No difference (vol.) 13.94 253

0 Don't know 16.26 295



qn9d As I read a list, tell me if the following made you more likely or less likely to vote for Walter Mondale...Gary Hart's speech and actions at the Democratic Convention? Mean: 2.11 Total N: 1813


% N

3 More likely 31.86 578

1 Less likely 23.73 430

2 No difference (vol.) 16.61 301

0 Don't know 27.81 504



qn9e As I read a list, tell me if the following made you more likely or less likely to vote for Walter Mondale...Jesse Jackson's speech and actions at the Democratic Convention? Mean: 2.21 Total N: 1813


% N

3 More likely 39.53 717

1 Less likely 22.79 413

2 No difference (vol.) 16.47 299

0 Don't know 21.21 385



qn9f As I read a list, tell me if the following made you more likely or less likely to vote for Walter Mondale...The way Walter Mondale dealt with Jesse Jackson? Mean: 2.24 Total N: 1813


% N

3 More likely 40.64 737

1 Less likely 22.01 399

2 No difference (vol.) 13.83 251

0 Don't know 23.52 427



qn10 Compared to most other vice presidential candidates in recent years, would you say that Geraldine Ferraro is better qualified than most, about as well qualified as most, or not as well qualified as most? Mean: 1.86 Total N: 1813


% N

3 Better qualified 9.93 180

2 About as well qualified 55.39 1004

1 Not as well qualified 21.83 396

4 DON'T KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT HER TO SAY (VOL.) 11.11 201

0 Not sure 1.74 32



qn11 Do you think the Democratic Party is solidly united behind the Mondale/Ferraro ticket, or do you think that differences and disagreements within the party will keep many Democrats from fully supporting the ticket? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 United 38.92 706

2 Keep many Democrats from fully supporting the ticket 50.12 909

0 Don't know 10.96 199



qn12 Prior to the convention, who was your first choice for the Democratic nomination: Walter Mondale, Gary Hart or Jesse Jackson? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Walter Mondale 37.51 680

2 Gary Hart 43.14 782

3 Jesse Jackson 7.83 142

4 Did not prefer any (VOL.) 9.25 168

0 Don't know 2.26 41



qn13 What was the last grade or class you COMPLETED in school? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 None, or grades 1-4 1.07 19

2 Grades 5, 6, 7 2.31 42

3 Grade 8 3.99 72

4 High School, incomplete 14.59 265

5 High School graduate, grade 12 36.06 654

6 Technical, Trade, or Business 2.47 45

7 College, University incomplete 18.94 344

8 College, University graduate 20.35 369

0 Refused/DK 0.21 4



qn14 What is your age? Mean: 45.94 Total N: 1813


% N

0 Don't know/Refused 0.46 8

18 18 1.39 25

19 19 0.79 14

20 20 1.05 19

21 21 1.40 25

22 22 2.20 40

23 23 1.17 21

24 24 3.48 63

25 25 1.71 31

26 26 1.29 23

27 27 2.31 42

28 28 1.80 33

29 29 1.81 33

30 30 2.35 43

31 31 2.74 50

32 32 2.71 49

33 33 2.10 38

34 34 2.04 37

35 35 2.00 36

36 36 1.93 35

37 37 2.33 42

38 38 1.46 26

39 39 2.28 41

40 40 2.79 51

41 41 0.84 15

42 42 1.43 26

43 43 2.06 37

44 44 0.76 14

45 45 1.94 35

46 46 1.45 26

47 47 1.23 22

48 48 1.54 28

49 49 1.10 20

50 50 1.58 29

51 51 1.33 24

52 52 2.17 39

53 53 1.75 32

54 54 1.24 22

55 55 1.97 36

56 56 1.43 26

57 57 1.80 33

58 58 2.18 39

59 59 1.19 22

60 60 2.81 51

61 61 1.25 23

62 62 2.37 43

63 63 1.17 21

64 64 1.04 19

65 65 1.68 30

66 66 1.43 26

67 67 0.61 11

68 68 1.22 22

69 69 1.12 20

70 70 1.25 23

71 71 0.67 12

72 72 0.53 10

73 73 1.37 25

74 74 0.85 15

75 75 0.21 4

76 76 0.62 11

77 77 1.33 24

78 78 0.48 9

79 79 0.80 15

80 80 0.63 11

81 81 0.28 5

82 82 0.34 6

83 83 0.48 9

84 84 0.06 1

85 85 0.10 2

87 87 0.53 10

90 90 0.12 2

91 91 0.09 2



qn15a In politics as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Republican 24.20 439

2 Democrat 41.49 752

3 Independent 33.14 601

4 Other party 0.35 6

0 Don't know 0.82 15



qn15b (In politics as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?) As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party? Mean: N/A Total N: 622


% N

1 Republican 43.56 271

2 Democratic 36.28 226

0 Don't know 20.15 125



qn16 What is your race: Are you white, black, or some other? Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 White 88.45 1604

2 Black 8.89 161

3 Other (SPECIFY) 2.46 45

0 Refused 0.20 4



D-sex SEX Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Male 46.94 851

2 Female 53.06 962



D-citysize CITY SIZE Mean: 436.21 Total N: 1813


% N

1 Not used 0.00 0

2 Open country 24.01 435

2 Under 2,500 4.67 85

4 2,500 - 4,999 0.26 5

8 5,000 - 9,999 2.88 52

18 10,000 - 24,999 6.80 123

38 25,000 - 49,999 5.71 104

75 50,000 - 99,999 7.18 130

175 100,000 - 249,999 9.72 176

375 250,000 - 499,999 8.05 146

750 500,000 - 999,999 12.82 233

1000 1 million and over 17.91 325



D-state STATE Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

11 Maine 0.23 4

12 New Hampshire 0.20 4

13 Vermont 0.08 1

14 Massachusetts 3.30 60

15 Rhode Island 0.40 7

16 Connecticut 1.03 19

21 New York 7.94 144

22 New Jersey 3.01 55

23 Pennsylvania 5.45 99

24 Maryland 2.40 44

25 Delaware 0.00 0

26 West Virginia 0.66 12

27 District of Columbia 0.31 6

31 Ohio 5.43 98

32 Michigan 4.58 83

33 Indiana 2.49 45

34 Illinois 5.34 97

41 Wisconsin 2.38 43

42 Minnesota 1.50 27

43 Iowa 1.50 27

44 Missouri 1.81 33

45 North Dakota 0.48 9

46 South Dakota 0.66 12

47 Nebraska 0.74 13

48 Kansas 1.37 25

51 Virginia 2.54 46

52 North Carolina 3.11 56

53 South Carolina 1.50 27

54 Georgia 2.87 52

55 Florida 3.59 65

56 Kentucky 2.32 42

57 Tennessee 1.76 32

58 Alabama 1.05 19

59 Mississippi 1.74 32

61 Arkansas 0.76 14

62 Louisiana 1.34 24

63 Oklahoma 0.76 14

64 Texas 5.55 101

71 Montana 0.16 3

72 Arizona 0.64 12

73 Colorado 1.80 33

74 Idaho 0.13 2

75 Wyoming 0.00 0

76 Utah 0.62 11

77 Nevada 0.00 0

78 New Mexico 0.90 16

81 California 10.38 188

82 Oregon 1.04 19

83 Washington 2.16 39

84 Hawaii 0.00 0

85 Alaska 0.00 0



D-fringe FRINGE Mean: N/A Total N: 1813


% N

1 Central City 29.21 530

2 Urban Fringe 26.47 480

3 Not urbanized area 44.32 804



D-agesummary AGE SUMMARY Mean: 45.52 Total N: 1813


% N

21 18-24 years 11.49 208

30 25-34 years 20.87 378

40 35-44 years 17.86 324

50 45-54 years 15.33 278

65 55 + years 33.99 616

0 DK/NA/Error 0.46 8

[tritsofme]

6. kick

[West Coast Democrat]

7. The thing is about Gallup....

their ownership has changed hands I believe.

(edited for typo)

[tritsofme]

kick

[tritsofme]

8. kick

[rumguy]

9. It's the 1984 numbers that distrub me a little

How did Mondale blow his lead?

[tritsofme]

10. It was a few days after the convention

He never had a lead like that before, or after.

[tritsofme]

11. kick