Statistical Dead Heat?

[evworldeditor]

Am I the only one who finds all this talk of Kerry and Bush being in a "statistical dead heat" highly suspect?

I base my impressions on watching the results of Lou Dobbs nightly polls on CNN. I find that when the audience is asked their views on issues that I certainly consider critical of Bush Administration policies, almost invariably the reactions are dramatically lopsided against the Administration.

I thought maybe Dobbs' strong stance against job outsourcing was attracting a largely anti-Bush audience, but then every now and then I find myself voting in the minority, which tells me not everyone watching Dobbs news program could be construed as "liberal."

Then I see indicators such as "Fahrenheit 9/11" still ranked in the top five movies in terms of weekend ticket sales, earning more money then Disney's "King Arthur"; reinforced by news stories about how the GOP is worried that the movie is going "mainstream." Then there's the talk of Republican's voting for Nader as a protest vote.

It seems to me there is a very palpable discontent in America toward this Administration that the pollsters are missing. Or am I just engaging in "wishful thinking"?

[xcmt]

1. Flip Side

Yes, there's decidedly a bloc of America that believes this Administration has been just short of (or well beyond) criminal in its handling of public policy.

There's also a large chunk of people that would defend Bush if he killed an immigrant child with a spoon on national live television.

You can't point at F911 and Lou Dobbs's audience as definitive proof of some kind of national proliferation of Democratic ideals without looking at (say) the popularity of Fox News, conservative talk radio, and The Passion in a similar capacity for the Republicans.

In the end, you have to trust that the polls are random and accurately represent the total population - the aggregate of the anti-Bush and pro-Bush. Which, in most cases, have the difference between Kerry and Bush within the statistical margin of error. Hence the "dead heat", even though that 3% error could represent over five million voters.

[Fed Up]

2. there's something happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear

I sense some of the same sentiment that was going around in 1980. By August 1980 it is said that Americans decided they didn't want Jimmy Carter to be their preznit anymore. It might be deja vu all over again with this sitting preznit.

I am skeptical about this 10% undecided shit. Anybody who could be undecided after 3 years of this cyclops probably won't take the time to vote anyhow.

It could be that nearly everybody already decided and are just waiting out Nov. 2.

Secret weapons for Democrats - a few million more non voting Democrats coming to the polls this time. Hundreds of thousands or millions of expatriots living in Europe who will send in their ballots for Kerry, when they never bothered before. Things are looking up.

[mtnester]

3. My take on polls based on what I hear

Here is what I see and hear more and more. When you are called for a poll, not everyone believes it is truly random or confidential, so they say one thing. Many people I know who call themselves republicans would not PUBLICLY state they were voting for anyone other than a republican. BUT, what a good deal of them are saying confidentially in PRIVATE is that they would not vote for that asshole * if he was the last person on earth. These basically good and decent folks feel that the confidentiality of their vote will allow them to do the right thing, even if they can not give public lip service to it.

I hear this over and over again, some from people who are involved in their local party politics. They fear stating it PUBLICLY as it may cost them business, their jobs, etc. These are lifelong, moderate republicans who are not over the top neocons.

Again, I hear this over and over again.

[faithnotgreed]

6. thats an interesting point... i wondered awhile back if, when called

by a polling agency, if people felt a bit obligated to say one thing or another. i thought that this may have to do with their spouse or other family member. i hadnt thought that it may also be due to feeling community pressure, fear over losing a job etc

thanks for sharing that

[PoliticsSportsMusic]

4. Yes,I've noticed on almost any show I watch....

whether its Crossfire,David Letterman,The Daily Show,whatever...the majority of the audience is anti-*ush. There is no way Bush comes anywhere near Kerry...I'm convinced we have at least a 10 point lead over dum-dum.

[BeatleBoot]

5. Yes it is a Dead Heat

Scientific polls don't lie.

Things need to play out yet for this thing to break one way or the other.

Are you up to the challenge?