7/24/2004 KERRY: 98.4% WIN PROBABILITY with 331 EV and 53.16% of vote

[TruthIsAll]

THE MEDIA IS PUTTING OUT BS ABOUT KERRY'S CHANCES
THESE NUMBERS ARE THE REAL DEAL.


TIA

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x585394

[wuushew]

1. Gore + 71 votes?

which states?

[TruthIsAll]

2. ITS A SIMULATION. LOOK AT THE FIRST 10 TRIALS OF 1000

TIA

[TruthIsAll]

3. Kerry is ahead in virtually all polls, state and national

The Bushit out of AP (Fournier) and MSNBC today re the Kerry EV "deficit" is an attempt to misrepresent or is very outdated or both.

Don't believe it. Kerry's is on the verge of a landslide.

[rfkrocks]

5. In my best Homer Simpson Donut loving voice

"MMM Landslide!"-BTW please be right the media is kicking the crap out of my hopes

[Maeve]

4. Realize, the media wants a close race

Otherwise, they are a waste of punditry. They have to have the chance to sound oh-so profound and serious and will bloody HATE it if they have to say "No surprise there!" come Election Night.

[Nevernose]

6. "Waste of punditry" Isn't that redunadant?

:hi:

[jdonaldball]

7. 98 % probability isn't good enough

Need 100 %

[TruthIsAll]

8. Wait until Kerry gets to 55% and we will be at 100% prob.

Simulation III: Optimistic Case
Assume 80% of undecided/other votes are allocated to Kerry.
Receives 54.2% of the vote.
Wins 99.9% of the trials
Average 352 electoral votes.
Maximum 434 electoral votes.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

9. Groovy.

We've secretly replaced the US presidential election with statistical analysis! Let's see if the American public can tell the difference...

:)

[TruthIsAll]

10. SUNDAY KICK TO SHUT UP THE MEDIA WHORES

TIA

[TruthIsAll]

11. Kick for anyone who cares to see simulation in action

tia

[jsw_81]

12. These "predicitions" are totally bogus

Similar systems predicted a landslide Gore victory last time, but he ended up winning by only a razor-thin margin (Gore 48, Bush 47). And anyone who thinks that Kerry is going to get more than 54 percent of the popular vote is delusional; no Democrat has even won a simple majority since 1976. I do think that Kerry will win, but it will be close in both the popular and electoral vote.