NATIONAL PROJECTION AND ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION
MODEL
Created by TRUTHISALL
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com
COMBINED AVERAGE NATIONAL AND STATE PROJECTION
Kerry:52.90%
Bush: 47.10%
Spread:5.79%
Kerry:97.19% probability of winning election
NATIONAL PROJECTION MODEL
Assumes 70% undecided/other allocation to Kerry
Kerry:52.93%
Bush:47.07%
Spread:5.86%
Kerry:96.89% probability of a popular vote majority.
STATE ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL
Assumes 70% undecided/other allocation to Kerry
Kerry:52.86% 327 EV
Bush:47.14% 211
Spread:5.73% 115
Kerry wins 975 of 1000 simulation trial runs,
for a 97.5% probability of winning the election.
ELECTORAL VOTE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
One thousand trials are run in each simulation.
Kerry Simulation Forecast Statistics:
Simulation I: Conservative Case
Assume 60% of undecided/other votes are allocated to
Kerry.
Receives 51.83% of the vote.
Wins 91.70% of the trials
Average 308 electoral votes.
Maximum 401 electoral votes.
Simulation II: Most Likely Case
Assume 70% of undecided/other votes are allocated to Kerry.
Receives 52.86% of the vote.
Wins 97.50% of the trials
Average 327 electoral votes.
Maximum 428 electoral votes.
Simulation III: Optimistic Case
Assume 80% of undecided/other votes are allocated to Kerry.
Receives 53.90% of the vote.
Wins 99.60% of the trials
Average 346 electoral votes.
Maximum 430 electoral votes.
LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
(in millions of votes)
Dem 138.75 52.6%
Rep 125.03 47.4%
BUSH JOB APPROVAL
The data source is PollingReport.com
2004 Avg Nwk Fox CNN Pew Harris CBS ABC Time NBC AP Zogby
Jan. 54.50 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49
Feb. 49.67 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na
Mar. 48.75 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 na
Apr. 48.80 49 50 52 48 48 46 51 49 na 48 47
May 45.20 42 48 47 44 na 41 47 46 47 48 42
June 47.00 na 48 49 48 50 42 47 na 45 48 46
July 48.00 48 47 49 46 na 45 na 50 48 50 49
NATIONAL POLL PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
The data source is PollingReport.com
Monthly polling data from:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME
The projection is based on the latest monthly average of the
ten polls adjusted by allocating 70% of undecided/other
voters to Kerry.
10 Poll Monthly Trend Projection
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 42.5 50.2 -11.5 46.5 53.5 -7.0
Feb 48.0 45.4 2.6 52.6 47.4 5.2
Mar 48.1 44.4 3.8 53.4 46.6 6.8
Apr 47.4 44.9 2.5 52.8 47.2 5.6
May 47.1 44.2 2.9 53.2 46.8 6.4
June 47.1 45.0 2.1 52.6 47.4 5.3
July 48.3 44.3 4.0 53.5 46.5 7.0
National Poll Projection Formula:
10-Poll Avg 48.3
+ allocation 5.2
= Projection: 53.5 % of total vote.
KERRY WIN PROBABILITY ANALYSIS BASED ON 16 NATIONAL
POLLS
Projected Kerry % of Vote
Latest Polls Allocation of other/undecided
Poll Kerry Bush 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
time 50.0 45.0 52.5 53.0 53.5 54.0 54.5
fox 45.0 44.0 50.5 51.6 52.7 53.8 54.9
cnn/gal 49.0 47.0 51.0 51.4 51.8 52.2 52.6
lat 48.0 46.0 51.0 51.6 52.2 52.8 53.4
pew 46.0 44.0 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0
ibd 44.0 41.0 51.5 53.0 54.5 56.0 57.5
cbs 49.0 44.0 52.5 53.2 53.9 54.6 55.3
demc 52.0 45.0 53.5 53.8 54.1 54.4 54.7
wp 46.0 46.0 50.0 50.8 51.6 52.4 53.2
nwk 51.0 45.0 53.0 53.4 53.8 54.2 54.6
zogby 46.0 44.0 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0
ap 46.0 50.0 48.0 48.6 49.2 49.8 50.4
nbc1 54.0 43.0 55.5 55.8 56.1 56.4 56.7
nbc2 45.0 47.0 49.0 49.8 50.6 51.4 52.2
arg 49.0 45.0 52.0 52.6 53.2 53.8 54.4
qpac 46.0 43.0 51.5 52.6 53.7 54.8 55.9
Average 47.81 44.88 51.47 52.20 52.93 53.66 54.39
Stddev 2.81 1.83 1.72 1.61 1.57 1.60 1.69
Prob Kerry
>50% 80.37% 91.36% 96.89% 98.90% 99.54%
Notes:
nbc1 - Princeton Associates
nbc2 - Wall Street Journal
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY
Kerry's projected state vote % is weighted by It's percentage
of the total vote in the last 3 elections..
Kerry's projected % for each state is based on the latest
state poll, adjusted
for the allocation of undecided/other voters.
The probability of Kerry winning a state is determined by the
current poll spread: Kerry - Bush.
The spread is compared to the MoE.
The greater the spread, the higher the probability that Kerry
will win the state.
Most Likely Case
Assume 70% Undecided/others vote for Kerry
Win Prob. Pct EV
Kerry 97.5% 52.9% 327
Bush 2.5% 47.1% 211
State Electoral Vote Simulation: Historical Voting, Kerry
Projection and Win Probability
Note: Dem% is Democratic % of the two-party vote in the last
three pres. elections
Hist% Dem% Kerry% Kerry% EV Trials runs 1-10 of 1000
Kerry Vote Proj. Prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Proj. 52.60% 52.86% 97.50% 322 340 308 302 322 302 365 350 349 326
AL 44.8 45.0 10.6 9
AK 37.6 40.7 1.0
AZ 48.8 53.9 83.5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
AR 55.2 50.6 56.0 6 6 6 6
CA 57.4 58.1 97.9 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
CO 48.8 49.3 43.1 9 9 9 9
CT 57.7 62.6 99.9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DE 56.8 57.1 96.2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DC 90.3 90.4 100.0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FL 50.7 48.8 38.2 27
GA 47.6 45.7 14.1 15 15
HI 59.0 60.9 99.7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ID 35.7 39.0 0.3
IL 57.9 60.0 99.4 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
IN 44.8 45.9 15.3 11 11 11
IA 51.8 52.2 70.9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
KS 42.4 41.6 1.8
KY 46.7 45.3 12.0
LA 49.2 49.0 40.1 9 9 9 9 9
ME 57.1 52.3 71.7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
MD 57.8 58.6 98.4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MA 65.3 66.7 100.0 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
MI 54.7 53.0 77.3 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
MN 55.7 53.0 77.3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MS 44.3 36.3 0.0
MO 52.5 51.9 68.3 11 11 11 11 11 11
MT 44.9 42.8 3.6
NE 37.5 36.5 0.0
NV 49.9 53.2 78.8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NH 51.7 52.6 74.2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
NJ 56.5 56.6 95.1 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NM 53.0 55.3 90.7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NY 62.6 65.0 100.0 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
NC 46.6 48.9 39.2 15 15 15 15 15 15
ND 40.8 37.2 0.1
OH 50.8 50.3 53.0 20 20 20 20
OK 42.8 39.2 0.3
OR 53.6 55.6 91.9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
PA 54.2 57.8 97.4 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
RI 65.6 64.2 100.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SC 44.4 47.5 26.6 8 8 8 8
SD 44.5 44.8 9.7 3 3 3
TN 50.5 50.8 57.9 11 11 11 11 11 11
TX 44.3 42.6 3.2 34
UT 33.6 29.7 0.0
VT 59.4 60.1 99.4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VA 47.3 48.5 35.4 13 13
WA 55.9 55.1 89.9 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WV 54.0 47.2 24.2 5 5
WI 52.7 55.0 89.4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
WY 38.3 30.8 0.0
Avg 52.60% 52.86% 97.50% 322 340 308 302 322 302 365 350 349 326
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
