Pretty much a dead heat?

[59millionmorons]

I am sick of these media whores saying the race is a dead heat. Of course the race is close, but Kerry in 99% of the polls is up 2-6 points. If Bush was up in any of these polls by just 1%, the media would be saying what is wrong with Kerry, Bush has lead in the Presidential race. Bush isnt ahead in any of these head/head polls released in the last three weeks. Heck even FOX has Kerry leading.

IBD/TIPP (883 RV) 7/19-7/24 43% 46% Kerry +3
Time/SRBI (882 LV) 7/20-7/22 44% 48% Kerry +4
Quinnipiac Univ. (1551 RV) 7/18-7/22 43% 46% Kerry +3
Fox News (767 LV) 7/20-7/21 44% 45% Kerry +1
CNN/Gallup/USAT (709 LV) 7/19-7/21 47% 49% Kerry +2
NPR - POS/GQR (800 LV) 7/18-7/20 46% 47% Kerry +1
LA Times (1,529 RV) 7/17-7/21 46% 48% Kerry +2
IBD/TIPP (842 RV) 7/12-7/17 41% 44% Kerry +3
CBS/NYT (823 RV) 7/11-7/15 44% 49% Kerry +5
Dem Corps** (1,010 LV) 7/10-13 46% 51% Kerry +5
CNN/Gallup/USAT (706 LV) 7/8-11 46% 50% Kerry +4
IBD/TIPP (800 RV) 7/6-7/10 44% 49% Kerry +5
Newsweek (1,001 RV) 7/8-7/9 45% 51% Kerry +6
Time (774 LV) 7/6-7/8 45% 49% Kerry +4
Zogby (1,008 LV) 7/6-7/7 44% 46% Kerry +2
CBS News (462 RV) 7/6 44% 49% Kerry +5
NBC News (504 RV) 7/6 43% 54% Kerry +11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Sparkly]

1. "Why is Bush failing to get momentum in this race?"

That's a question we won't see, but exactly as you say, when Kerry's behind 1% they ask it over and over again about him.

If they asked it about the Chimp, they'd have to give answers like "He's not connecting with the people. He's not a good speaker. He has no charisma. He's stiff and uncomfortable with the media. His record isn't one he can be proud of." etc. etc... And perhaps they'd even get around to "He's dumb as a box of rocks."

[calico1]

2. You would think they'd ask why the "Prez" isn't ahead at this point

wouldn't you? I mean, he is an INCUMBENT. Why is he at best tied with Kerry? It isn't Kerry who should be ahead at this point. The real question is, why is an Incumbent President, who supposedly is so popular, doing this badly at this point? But you're right, they will never ask that.

[Sparkly]

3. Right, and as the incumbent, he's supposed to be running on his record

at least that's the usual way. Instead he's resorting to negative attack ads and giving speeches about "the Senator from Massachussetts" -- even having Cheney do that -- which shows real desperation. They're in trouble and they know it. (But you wouldn't know it from the media!)

[lancdem]

5. Exactly

Bush shouldn't just be ahead, he should be WAY ahead. Incumbents who win aren't in tight races.

[salinen]

4. When Faux reads this thread

they will launch the "Kerry was once a woman" assault.

[Brotherjohn]

6. Wow! Stunning! Kerry's AHEAD in EVERY head-to-head poll...

... from the last 3 weeks.

Now THAT's what I call consensus! They keep saying it's a "dead heat". That may statistically be true in some of the individual polls. But when EVERY POLL has Kerry ahead, I think the press (if they were doing their job) could make a good case for Bush being BEHIND.

I mean, EVERY poll shows he is. Doesn't that mean something?!

[KurtNYC]

7. I think I figured out how CNN decides "likely voters"

That is their weighting system. I'm thinking by "likely voters" they mean the people who decided the last election. You see they ask registered voters who they would vote for (being sure to include Nader) then they use the numbers from the "likely voters".

55.5% Bush
44.5% Kerry
0 Nader

Who are the "likely voters"? Scalia, Thomas, Souter, etc. So among likely voters, Bush leads 5 to 4 ! and with 100% of the Black vote!

[denny1958]

8. Good place for current Electoral Vote Predictor

A good place for up to date polling results is:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

This guy updates daily.
I was shocked when that stupid AP story on the weekend had Bush ahead. This website even addresses that story:

"It is certainly true that about 20 states are going to be very close, but there is no basis for saying that Bush is ahead in the electoral college now. A more accurate statement would be Kerry has 222 electoral votes strongly for him or leaning in his direction and Bush has 184 strong or leaning. The rest are tossups. Thus Kerry is ahead in the electoral college right now. But don't bet on it. AP should assign a more experienced political reporter to this kind of story next time."

[newyawker99]

10. Hi denny1958!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[wrate]

9. As long as this is not part of the Diebold machines stealing the election

I don't mind what the media says. Even if Repugs want to believe this supposed statistical tie is true, all the better, Democrats will get them easier. Like they say in my country:

Caballo que alcanza, gana.