Why you should ignore national polls

[JPJones]

Notice that Kerry is winning in all areas of the country except the South. B* is doing really well in the South. When you average in the South, it makes it look like the he's doing much better. But the electoral college limits the impact of the South.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac3/ContentServer

East Midwest South West All
B* and Cheney 39% 47% 56% 44% 48%
Kerry and Edwards 51% 48% 40% 50% 46%
Nader and Camejo 5% 3% 1% 2% 3%

Source: A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted by telephone July 22-25, 2004, among a random national sample of 1,202 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, PA.

[readmylips]

1. Pollsters can only call homes with regular house phones....

Pollsters cannot call cell phones and most people today only have cell phone service. Most rural states in the south only have regular telephones and these are the only people being polled. All polls are not correct. Media net polls, as we very well know, people can vote as many times as you like. They're a joke.

[elperromagico]

2. With the electoral college, what we have are 50 statewide elections,

and an election in DC, with 538 votes at stake. Kerry can win this thing with 21 states. I hope he wins more, but that's all it really takes.

National polls are good indicators of the general feeling of the nation, but remember who was leading in national polling for the Dem primaries in December 2003. Hint: It wasn't John Kerry.

[Radical Activist]

3. Polls also don't count the several million new voters

that Democratic friendly groups are registering in swing states, like Project Vote, ACORN and others. Also, this will be a high turnout election so polls of "likely" voters mean nothing and are biased towards Republicans.