NATIONAL PROJECTION AND STATE EV SIMULATION MODEL
Created by TRUTHISALL
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com
COMBINED AVERAGE NATIONAL AND STATE PROJECTION
Kerry: 52.76%
Bush: 47.24%
Spread: 5.52%
Kerry: 96.62% probability of winning election.
NATIONAL PROJECTION MODEL
Assumes 70% undecided/other allocation to Kerry
Kerry: 52.84%
Bush: 47.16%
Spread: 5.68%
Kerry: 95.35% probability of a popular vote majority.
STATE ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL
Assumes 70% undecided/other allocation to Kerry
Kerry: 52.68% 324 EV
Bush: 47.32% 214
Spread: 5.37% 109
Kerry wins: 979 of 1000 simulation trial runs,
for a 97.9% probability of winning the election.
ELECTORAL VOTE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
One thousand trials are run in each simulation.
Kerry Simulation Forecast Statistics:
Simulation I: Conservative Case
Assume: 60% of undecided/other votes are allocated to
Kerry.
Kerry
Receives: 51.80% of the vote.
Wins: 91.70% of the trials
Average of: 307 electoral votes.
Maximum of:: 402 electoral votes.
Simulation II: Most Likely Case
Assume: 70% of undecided/other votes are allocated to Kerry.
Kerry
Receives: 52.68% of the vote.
Wins: 97.90% of the trials
Average of: 324 electoral votes.
Maximum of:: 414 electoral votes.
Simulation III: Optimistic Case
Assume: 80% of undecided/other votes are allocated to Kerry.
Kerry
Receives: 53.57% of the vote.
Wins: 99.10% of the trials
Average of: 340 electoral votes.
Maximum of:: 421 electoral votes.
LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
(in millions of votes)
Dem 138.75 52.6%
Rep 125.03 47.4%
BUSH JOB APPROVAL
The data source is PollingReport.com
2004 Avg Nwk Fox CNN Pew Harris CBS ABC Time NBC AP Zogby
Jan. 54.50 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49
Feb. 49.67 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na
Mar. 48.75 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 na
Apr. 48.80 49 50 52 48 48 46 51 49 na 48 47
May 45.20 42 48 47 44 na 41 47 46 47 48 42
June 47.00 na 48 49 48 50 42 47 na 45 48 46
July 48.20 48 47 49 46 na 45 50 50 48 50 49
NATIONAL POLL PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
The data source is PollingReport.com
Monthly polling data from:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME
The projection is based on the latest monthly average of the
ten polls adjusted by allocating 70% of undecided/other
voters to Kerry.
10 Poll Average Trend Projection
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 42.5 50.2 -11.5 46.5 53.5 -7.0
Feb 48.0 45.4 2.6 52.6 47.4 5.2
Mar 48.1 44.4 3.8 53.4 46.6 6.8
Apr 47.4 44.9 2.5 52.8 47.2 5.6
May 47.1 44.2 2.9 53.2 46.8 6.4
June 47.1 45.0 2.1 52.6 47.4 5.3
July 48.7 44.8 3.9 53.3 46.8 6.5
National Poll Projection Formula:
10-Poll Avg 48.7
+ allocation 4.6
= Projection: 53.3 % of total vote.
KERRY WIN PROBABILITY ANALYSIS BASED ON 16 NATIONAL
POLLS
Latest 16 Polls Kerry% Allocation of other/undecided
Poll Kerry Bush 2-party 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
time 50.0 45.0 52.6 52.5 53.0 53.5 54.0 54.5
fox 45.0 44.0 50.6 50.5 51.6 52.7 53.8 54.9
cnn 49.0 47.0 51.0 51.0 51.4 51.8 52.2 52.6
lat 48.0 46.0 51.1 51.0 51.6 52.2 52.8 53.4
pew 46.0 44.0 51.1 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0
ibd 44.0 41.0 51.8 51.5 53.0 54.5 56.0 57.5
cbs 49.0 44.0 52.7 52.5 53.2 53.9 54.6 55.3
demc 52.0 45.0 53.6 53.5 53.8 54.1 54.4 54.7
wp 48.0 49.0 49.5 49.5 49.8 50.1 50.4 50.7
nwk 51.0 45.0 53.1 53.0 53.4 53.8 54.2 54.6
zogby 46.0 44.0 51.1 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0
ap 45.0 49.0 47.9 48.0 48.6 49.2 49.8 50.4
nbc1 54.0 43.0 55.7 55.5 55.8 56.1 56.4 56.7
nbc2 45.0 47.0 48.9 49.0 49.8 50.6 51.4 52.2
arg 49.0 45.0 52.1 52.0 52.6 53.2 53.8 54.4
qpac 46.0 43.0 51.7 51.5 52.6 53.7 54.8 55.9
Mean 47.94 45.06 51.53 51.44 52.14 52.84 53.54 54.24
Std 2.77 2.08 1.82 1.75 1.68 1.69 1.76 1.89
Stdm 0.69 0.52 0.46 0.44 0.42 0.42 0.44 0.47
hi 53.37 49.13 55.10 54.87 55.44 56.15 56.99 57.95
low 42.50 40.99 47.96 48.01 48.84 49.53 50.08 50.52
x 49.13 49.13 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Prob>x 33.34% 2.50% 79.92% 79.44% 89.77% 95.35% 97.77% 98.74%
95% Confidence Limits
Range Kerry Bush Kerry % of 2-party
High 49.30 46.08 52.42
Low 46.58 44.05 50.64
x 46.08 46.08 50.00
Prob>x 99.63% 2.50% 99.96%
There is a
95.00%:probability Kerry is between 46.58 and 49.30
99.63%:probability Kerry is over 46.08
2.50%:probability Bush is over 46.08
99.96%:probability that Kerry's % of 2-party vote
>50%
99% Confidence Limits
Range Kerry Bush Kerry % of 2-party
High 49.73 46.40 52.70
Low 46.15 43.72 50.35
x 46.40 46.40 50.00
Prob>x 98.7% 0.49% 99.96%
There is a 99.00% probability Kerry is
between46.15 and 49.73
98.67%:probability Kerry is over:46.40
0.49%:probability Bush is over:46.40
99.96%:probability Kerry's % of 2-party vote is over
50%
Notes:
nbc1 - Princeton Associates
nbc2 - Wall Street Journal
Std= Standard Deviation (variability) of the 16 Poll
Means
Standard Error of the Mean
Stdm = Std/sqrt(n), where n=16 polls
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY
The state vote % is weighted its percentage of the total vote
in the last 3 elections.
Kerry's projected % for each state is based on the latest
state poll, adjusted
for the allocation of undecided/other voters.
The probability of Kerry winning a state is determined by his
projected
percentage of the vote (after the allocation
adjustment)
Most Likely Case
Assume 70% Undecided/others vote for Kerry
Win Prob. Pct EV
Kerry 97.9% 52.7% 324
Bush 2.1% 47.3% 214
State Electoral Vote Simulation: Historical Voting, Kerry
Projection and Win Probability
Note: Dem% is Democratic % of the two-party vote in the last
three pres. elections
Hist% Dem% Kerry% Kerry% EV Trials runs 1-10 of 1000
Kerry Vote Proj. Prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Proj. 52.60% 52.68% 97.90% 314 303 338 322 306 327 307 322 342 359
AL 44.8 45.0 10.6 9
AK 37.6 40.7 1.0
AZ 48.8 53.9 83.5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
AR 55.2 50.6 56.0 6 6 6 6
CA 57.4 58.1 97.9 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
CO 48.8 49.3 43.1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
CT 57.7 62.6 99.9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DE 56.8 57.1 96.2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DC 90.3 90.4 100.0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FL 50.7 50.1 51.0 27 27 27 27 27
GA 47.6 45.7 14.1 15
HI 59.0 60.9 99.7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ID 35.7 39.0 0.3
IL 57.9 60.0 99.4 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
IN 44.8 45.9 15.3 11 11 11
IA 51.8 51.1 60.8 7 7 7 7
KS 42.4 41.6 1.8
KY 46.7 46.2 17.1 8 8
LA 49.2 44.4 8.1
ME 57.1 52.3 71.7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
MD 57.8 58.6 98.4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MA 65.3 66.7 100.0 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
MI 54.7 55.1 89.9 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
MN 55.7 51.2 61.8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MS 44.3 36.3 0.0
MO 52.5 51.1 60.8 11 11 11 11 11
MT 44.9 42.8 3.6
NE 37.5 36.5 0.0
NV 49.9 51.9 68.3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NH 51.7 54.7 88.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
NJ 56.5 56.6 95.1 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NM 53.0 56.2 93.9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NY 62.6 65.0 100.0 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
NC 46.6 47.5 26.6 15 15 15
ND 40.8 37.2 0.1
OH 50.8 50.5 55.0 20 20 20
OK 42.8 39.2 0.3
OR 53.6 55.5 91.5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
PA 54.2 54.1 84.7 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
RI 65.6 64.2 100.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SC 44.4 47.5 26.6 8 8 8
SD 44.5 44.8 9.7 3 3 3
TN 50.5 51.8 67.4 11 11 11 11 11 11
TX 44.3 42.6 3.2
UT 33.6 29.7 0.0
VT 59.4 60.1 99.4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VA 47.3 48.5 35.4 13 13 13 13
WA 55.9 54.8 88.5 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WV 54.0 49.6 46.0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
WI 52.7 52.8 75.8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
WY 38.3 30.8 0.0
Avg 52.60% 52.68% 97.90% 314 303 338 322 306 327 307 322 342 359
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