Does anyone think right now that we can possibly lose this thing?

[Lauren2882]

Just curious. Me, I'm comfortable saying we're at 95-99%

[Mizmoon]

1. anything could happen

the world is a wild and wiggly place.

[unblock]

2. beware overconfidence

i think we're odds-on to win a legitimate election for the presidency, but that's it. maybe as high as 70% likely. but first off, there's plenty of room for shenanigans in a few key states, and that's all it takes.

second, there's plenty of room for political surprises, and NASTY tricks. get ready for some very unsavory last minute 'rumors' about kerry, e.g. remember that republican october surprises could be either pro-bush surprises or anti-kerry surprises

third, remember that the presidency is far from everything. if the republicans retain control of both houses of congress, then kerry will not be able to accomplish much, and four years later we might be right back where we started.

remember that there are sure to be 2-4 supreme court appointments in the next 4 years. control of the senate may be crucial in the confirmation process!

[Lauren2882]

21. 70% of the popular vote?

I don't even think we have a chance of doing that well! 55-56 tops.. (but 49 min., with the other 51 split so that Bush has less than Kerry). Just what my gut is telling me, not just tonight but for a long time, since last fall probably.

[Lauren2882]

33. oh, duh...

Of course you weren't saying 70% of the vote, but 70% liklihood.. just as I didnt' mean 95-99% of the vote.. ok gotcha, sorry about that

[Th1onein]

57. I think we're going to get 65% of the popular vote, actually.......

The one thing the lying pukes have always had as a strong point is their ability to get out the vote on their side. This year has seen an ENORMOUS increase in the amount of newly registered voters. And I do believe that most of them are Dems. I think a lot of people are going to be very surprised at what happens in this election.

As Michael Moore said today, talking politics is now the popular thing to do. People, and especially young people, who are more likely to get their news from sources other than the cable news channels, are becoming involved as never before in the history of this country.

This doesn't mean that we should stand down and say okay, we won, because we've got a great deal of work to do, even if we take back both houses, and if Kerry wins. We first need to abolish the electoral college and change the way we vote our representatives into office, in general. And that's BESIDES all the mess that we have to clean up after Bush leaves office. And, finally, we must remember that we can never, ever, ever allow these corporate whores to take over our government again.

[TexasSissy]

45. Ditto. It's a close race. Neck and neck. Unbelievable, but true.

Many others don't think the way we do. You give some people a tax cut, and they'll agree to anything. Anything. Even to giving away their civil liberties. If they think Kerry might raise their taxes (and that's what the Repubs will say), people will turn out to vote against him just for that.

For Freepers who may be trolling: Kerry is NOT going to raise taxes on 98% of the people. His plan is to roll back the tax cuts that were given to the wealthiest 1 %, and to take away the tax cuts given to corporations as incentives to offshore their jobs.

[uncle ray]

49. yup, now somebody just needs to tell

the 10% of the population that think they are the 2%ers that they got nothing to worry about! that's the problem with "tax the rich", is the idiots that THINK they are rich and vote aganst it.

[Ready4Change]

3. Yes, we can loose this.

Don't for one second doubt the belief of Bush's supporters. To fanatics, the brilliant speaches and rational thoughts of their opponents just ferment more hate and determination.

And even if we win the election via votes, there's the possibility of the election being stolen as it was in 2000, or worse.

This election is not won, nor will it be won, until the Bush administration is out of the White House and the Kerry administration is in.

I'm excited by the speeches at the convention too, particularly because so many of them echo my own thoughts, for the first time in 4 years. But I know this thing is NOT won yet.

[K-W]

4. Oh boy can we.

Get excited, get motivated, but remember, we are STILL the underdogs.

[Davis_X_Machina]

5. "Too Close to Call"...

...is "Close Enough to Steal".

If it isn't a blowout, it won't count.

[jmags]

6. Absolutely.

For the Americans that actually watched the speeches, I think quite a few may have been convinced. Many will hear of the speeches only by the 3 seconds given by the media, following by a 3 minute distorted summary of what was said. Unfortunately, once diluted by the punditocracy, much of the power - and truth - of what was said will be lost. I think you also have to take into account the casual voters who may have agreed with everything they heard tonight, but after another two months of Repub attacks coupled with a complicit and lazy media, some of those may be scared enough to switch back.

Don't take a damn thing for granted. We'll have to work until the day of the election.

[in_cog_ni_to]

7. We CAN win this thing

because Democrats are going to show up at the polls in DROVES! However, we still have to worry about purged voter rolls, electronic voting machines, the RW media and a LIHOP terrorist attack. :(

[theboss]

8. Of course we can

Kerry could fuck it up tomorrow (I doubt he will). Going "dark" in August really worries me since I remember '88. Kerry could have a bad debate. There could be a terrorist attack. Anything could happen.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

9. I'll echo others here

let anyone and everyone out there assume we are going to win. And we are, just for the record.

But YOU, the foot soldier in the Kerry campaign, you need to put that out of your mind and keep working, ok?

[BillZBubb]

10. Well Dukakis was up by 17% after his convention.

We know how that one turned out. I don't have a lot of faith in about 60% of the voters.

There are 40% of us who know the score and will vote Kerry/Edwards no matter what. The 60% are either fundies, wingnuts, uninformed, third party afficionados, or naive. We need a bunch of these people to vote our way. That's not a given.

[Zomby Woof]

44. that was not against an incumbent though

It just isn't a valid analogy, mainly because history does not repeat itself.

But damn if I don't see it on here too much.

Clinton was down in 3rd before his convention in '92, but I won't use that as a valid analogy either, even though he DID go up against an incumbent.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

11. Nope. Kerry is our next president.

eom

[WilliamPitt]

12. Yes

[Nevernose]

13. I sense a LOT of energy among Democrats lately

For the last six months or so. Coworkers, friends, family, people at the checkout line, little old ladies at the bank...

I haven't been this excited to be a Democrat in years -- emphasis on excitement -- not since I was in Texas and working to get the Big Dog elected (that part didn't work out so well, at least in Texas, but still).

[AnnitaR]

14. Lose? No, I don't think so. Have it stolen again?!

Absofuckinglutely!

[jdonaldball]

15. I'm more worried about losing now, than before the convention

Too much emotional indulgence floating around.
Emotional politics are the basis of Fascism. Now I'm seeing it on both sides. And the Republicans are better at it.

[GreenPartyVoter]

16. Only through nefarious means. Otherwise this thing is locked up for Kerry

--------------------------------------------------------
An open letter to John Kerry, John Edwards, and the DNC:
http://www.geocities.com/greenpartyvoter/OpenLetter.htm

[natrat]

20. given all the bs i calculate

hold on ,got the mainframe running---our boy has 46% chance of pulling it out

[GreenPartyVoter]

22. Man, you can reduce it to an algorithm? *l* Hey, I hear

the CIA and FBI are hiring! *g*

[Lauren2882]

17. In response to most of you urging caution..

You've all made some good points, how anything can happen and politics is full of surprises and the Bush thugs will stop at nothing. It's all true.

But I'm talking about intuition (yeah I'm a woman).. in my guy I don't just feel like we're probably gonna win, but I feel like I know we're gonna win.. an alternative scenario is simply inconceivable (who knows, maybe that's just I can't allow myself to imagine something so awful)

[Rose Siding]

18. We can lose

Did you see the WP poll yesterday? Bush gained and Kerry dropped disturbing amounts in the last 2 months- during the same time that Bush has gotten the worst press that he's likely to get.

I know it's only one poll but it's freaky enough for me to be anxious to see what kind of trends that other polls show.

[Lauren2882]

29. I did see that poll..

And yeah it's not good, but my reaction really was--It's just one poll, margin of error, etc..

What keeps me optimistic even when a poll shows us down a couple of points is a) Voters know less about Kerry than about Bush, so undecideds are more likely to go Bush and b) Polls also show a clear majority is looking for a change, putting them in a position to be ready to let Kerry make the case for himself to them.. And I have confidence that he'll do it well; I've been surprised and impressed with his abilities as a candidate so far.

[Kinkistyle]

19. In a fair election? No.

But considering that the Resident's brother controls the corrupt den of thieves known as the State of Florida, and that Bush commands legions of brainwashed, religious flying monkeys, the odds even out a bit.

[RummyTheDummy]

23. I'm about 75 percent sure

I have the same feeling I had in 1992 during that convention. I did not have that feeling in 2000.

[MoonRiver]

24. 3 letters could steal it for * again: BBV.

I have no idea what to predict. If Kerry gets a landslide, and I think he might, Pukes won't have a shot. But if it's real close, there could be big trouble ahead.

[Lauren2882]

31. What if it's not a landslide, but a pretty clear win?

Like Kerry 53, Bush 46, Nader/Other 1.. That to me seems like both a plausible outcome of the popular vote as well as not close enough to steal.

[MoonRiver]

35. My feeling is that a true, in terms of actual votes cast, landslide

will end up looking like a "pretty clear win". This is because of the enormous machine, including bbvs, that the rightwing has in place across this country. It is very frightening but a real possibility that this country will become a fascist theocracy if the Pukes retain control of all governmental branches for another 4 years. :scared:

[Lorien]

25. Yes

if the Diebold company and their ilk have their way, if the media "Gores" and "Deans" Kerry in the weeks prior to the election (they WILL try)! if the Kerry campaign continues to alienate much of it's base with "anti-anti-war" crap (I was with Edwards right up until he spoke of "winning the war on terror" -about as possible as winning the war on drugs... The dems MUST learn how to reframe the issues- and then he said the soldiers in Iraq are "fighting for our values'. What nonsense)! If Kerry fails to inspire, if they get their "October surprise"...and let's not forget; the repugs get the last word in with their convention, and you can bet the media coverage will be far more favorable of THAT event!

[LittleApple81]

26. BBV, THE MEDIA, THE LIES, THE DIRTY POLITICS. Yes, unfortunately.NT

[NightOwwl]

27. Yes

Bush still has lots of support. Plus, he cheats.

[Aftershock]

28. I think we're going to win it this year.

It's clear that people want change. They're getting sick of Bush and all his lies.

It's about time this country is getting smart.

It's clear, however, that the election may be stolen away from us again. :grr:

[BloodyWilliam]

30. We might have a good hand, but the deck is stacked.

THEY have the media.
THEY have the rabid psychos willing to do anything for them.
THEY have the rigged voting machines.
THEY have the corrupt government that won't investigate any wrongdoing.

We need to fight harder than ever.

[Lauren2882]

32. "THEY have the rabid psychos willing to do anything for them."

True, but the DEMS have the rabid ... um, sane, smart people... willing to do anything for them!

[unkachuck]

34. remember 2000....

.....we can win and still lose....

[Lauren2882]

38. Unlike 2000 ...

I feel like we've got momentum, a skilled candidate, and unambiguous public opinion on our side.. If Kerry gets 53-54% of the vote, I don't think it can be stolen.

[OpSomBlood]

36. Osama Surprise, Rigged Election, Black Box...

I'm not comfortable saying that at all.

[Selwynn]

37. Yes - we can lose this thing. But for the first time in a long time...

...we have a real fighting chance at success.

[redstateblues]

41. I am Cautiously Optimistic

[GoneOffShore]

39. We will win IF

the poll numbers don't peak too soon and there are no scandals for our side.

It's going to be a tough fight all the way to November. But one thing I've seen since I've been on this board is that suddenly we're getting a lot of new members who identify themsevlves as ex republicans. This is good and hey, welcome guys and gals, glad to have you. I also saw last night at the Kerry rally in Philadelphia a different face on the electorate: a younger face, a more diverse face. I'm used to going to political rallies and seeing people my age (56 and I look like I'm in my 40's). I saw the future of the Democrat party last night: young, engaged people who want to change the way this country is run. People who are tired of seeing jobs go overseas, people who don't want to worry about how to pay for healthcare and people who don't want to put their parents in nursing homes when the money runs out.

We've got to keep the momentum.
We've got to stay on message.

Strength and wisdom.
It doesn't have to be this way.
Speak truth to power.

[goclark]

40. Yes we can lose Nov. 2nd

because we are not having an Election, we are having a War.

A war between the UnAmericans vs. The Good Guys

A war between the Greedy vs. The Kind

A war between those that pretend to wrap themselves around the cross vs. those that believe that we are free to worship as we choose

A war between the bigots vs. those that believe that ALL people have worth and dignity

A war between the Oil Grabbers vs. those that believe that this land,our trees,rivers and streams are precious

A war between the Bullies vs. The Caring

A War between A Secret Society of Nazis vs. Those that Truly love America with all their hearts

A war between those that believe that WAR is the answer vs. those that believe we should "give peace a chance"

A war between those that want to Keep The Poor and Middle Class Down vs. Those That Wish To Lift Everyone Up

A war that has a puppet controlled by thieves as a false leader vs. A True Patriot and a REAL LEADER

Yes, it saddens me beyond measure to say,,,we can lose this election.

[GoneOffShore]

42. I understand your concern

but, hang in there: talk to people you wouldn't talk to, go the extra mile.
We can do it.
We will do it.

[LTR]

43. A GOP dirty tricks campaign that will put Nixon's CREEP to shame

Unless people rise up and get fed up with this shit.

Kudos to Edwards for bringing up the GOP negativity tonight.

But the Republicans have mastered sleazy campaigning. This year is going to be 1968, 1972, 1988, 1992, and 2000 all rolled into one and magnified 100 times. It's gonna get ugly.

But I do think this election is Kerry's to lose.

[quinnox]

46. yes Bush might win

And I'm not going to say Kerry has it won no matter what the polls say in the next months. The night of the election is when the winner of the election will be determined, regardless of any polls, be they good or bad for either side.

In fact, I would say Bush still has a slight edge as of now but Kerry has an excellent chance to win, but no guarantee.

In the case of a Bush win I would like to see the Democrats retake at least the Senate, and then have some power to oppose a Bush second term agenda.

However although I'm prepared for a Bush win I think he would end up a lame duck for most of his second term if the Dems can retake the Senate or House, just a feeling I have.

I believe in the end Kerry will win but I don't discount the possibility of Bush winning either.

[Hutzpa]

47. No need to get carried away yet

Still more work to do, the repugs are very sly human beings, they have cards they might play, the division card, race, religion, Jobs, terrorist, Immigration,, these are cruel human biengs they will do anything to hold on to power. So more work, and don't forget they own the media too.


:think:

[jukes]

48. the convention

has us pumpt, but don't forget how many stupid, hateful or uncaring folks there are out there.

i'll damn sure vote for kerry. will try to volunteer; driver, watcher, whatever. but i am very damn uneasy.

[TrogL]

50. We've still got to get through the Republican Convention

the Democratic convention will be a distant memory.

[Only Me]

51. The Media is seriously misleading the Kerry Edwards image.+

My father inlaw quotes me crap he hears all the time. He really believes if he heard it on tv it is the truth. They argue stuff they hear with me all the time. They don't have cable, still like alot of people, by choice or other. A sort of neighbor I know is a Repuke and occasionally I send her information about shrub, that is not tainted by Faux. Honestly I think the media is our BIGGEST enemy right now. WE need a liberal leaning news station of our own NOW! We need one that runs 24/7 and is truly a voice for the other 50+ percent of the news watching public in this country.

[Curious Dave]

52. Just one thing makes me nervous

It is inconceivable to me that we will lose in November. But, I have to confess I keep hearing this nagging little voice in the back of my head that keeps reminding me of 1972...

For those who may not know or remember; in 1972 Richard Nixon won in every state but Mass and DC. He carried 61% of the vote nationwide. I think he took something like 517 electoral college votes. RICHARD FUCKING NIXON!!!!!!!!!!!!

My point is this. Hard though it may be to believe, RN was possibly hated by the left even more than we hate bush. The country was in the middle of an extremely divisive war that a lot of republicans weren't even sure about. Nixon (a rear echelon Navy supply officer in WW II IIRC) ran against a good honest liberal and war hero (WW II bomber pilot) Senator George McGovern from South Dakota. Does anyone else see the parallels between that election and this one yet?

Now I'm not trying to say I fear some weird mystical historic fluke (like the similarities between Lincoln and Kennedy thing). What I do fear is that, as inconceivable as it was to anyone with a brain in their head, the American people never-the-less gave a LANDSLIDE to RICHARD FUCKING NIXON over George McGovern. It didn't make sense then and it still doesn't make sense.

Do I think Kerry will win in November? Yes I do. But, I can't shake that little voice in my head that keeps repeating "1972 1972 1972" over and over again.

thoughts?

[SoCalDem]

53. DIEBOLD

:(

[Cronus Protagonist]

54. In a fair election or the one we're going to have in Nov?

Fair election? - landslide against Bush
This election? - squeaker for Bush

SHOVE IT! - Drop Bush Not Bombs! - Hero Kerry AWOL Bush
http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[Stockholm]

55. Only in a parallel universe would this years election be a tight race n/t

[AlFrankenFan]

56. Close race

And unfortunately or fortunately anything can happen between now and November. We've really got to get our asses out there and work to get Kerry elected no matter what. I know it may be the optimist in me but I still plan to canvass our county known as "The OC" with pro-Kerry fliers...recycled paper ones that is cause I know conservatives will more than likely throw them away. I'll be showing my support every day, whether it be with my future-button or future-dog tag or future-shirt I ordered today.

The likeliness we will win if we put our hearts into this thing is going to be over 90%. Right now, I'd say we have an 80% chance. But things will change...please Kerry must give a great acceptance speech!

[Hell Hath No Fury]

58. I won't believe we can win this thing...

until I see Kerry with his hand on a bible taking an oath of office.

Until then, anything can happen.