7/29 KERRY WIN PROBABILITY: 96.07%, VOTE: 52.72% , EV: 322

[TruthIsAll]

								
NATIONAL PROJECTION/ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL								
Created by TRUTHISALL								
								
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com								
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com 								
								
								
COMBINED NATIONAL AND STATE PROJECTION								
Assumes 70% of undecided/other to Kerry								
								
Kerry:	52.72							
Bush:	47.28							
Spread:	5.43							
								
Kerry:	96.07%	probability > 269 EV		
				
NATIONAL PROJECTION MODEL				
16-Polls	Latest%	Proj%		
Kerry:	47.94	52.84		
Bush:	45.06	47.16		
Spread:	2.88	5.68		
				
Kerry:	95.35%	probability > 50% of vote.		
				
				
STATE ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL				
Forecast  vote % EV				
Kerry:	52.60	322		
Bush:	47.40	216		
Spread:	5.19	106		
						
Kerry wins:	968 of 1000 simulation trial runs, 				
for a	96.8%	probability of winning the election.				
						
						
						
						
						
						
ELECTORAL VOTE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS						
One thousand  (1000) trials are run in each simulation.						
						
Simulation I: Conservative Case 						
Assume:	60%	of undecided/other to Kerry.				
						
Kerry:	51.68%	of the vote.				
Wins:	87.6%	of the trials. 	
Avg:	304	electoral votes.	
Max:	405	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation II: Most Likely Case 			
Assume:	70%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry:	52.60%	of the vote.	
Wins:	96.8%	of the trials. 	
Avg:	322	electoral votes.	
Max:	394	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 			
Assume:	80%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
				
Kerry:	53.51%	of the vote.		
Wins:	99.3%	of the trials. 		
Avg:	338	electoral votes.		
Max:	423	electoral votes.		
				
				


LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS				
(in millions of votes)				
Dem	138.75	52.6%		
Rep	125.03	47.4%		

				

BUSH JOB APPROVAL												
The data source is PollingReport.com    												
												
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
Jan.	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
Feb.	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
Mar.	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
Apr.	48.80	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
May	45.20	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
June	47.00	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
July	48.20	48	47	49	46	na	45	50	50	48	50	49

												
												
												
												
NATIONAL POLL PROJECTION METHODOLOGY						
						
The data source is PollingReport.com    						
Monthly polling data from: 						
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME						
						
Kerry projection is based on average of ten polls adjusted by
allocating  70% of undecided/other voters to Kerry.						
						
						
						
	10 Poll Avg Trend			Projection		
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	42.5	50.2	-11.5	46.5	53.5	-7.0
Feb	48.0	45.4	2.6	52.6	47.4	5.2
Mar	48.1	44.4	3.8	53.4	46.6	6.8
Apr	47.4	44.9	2.5	52.8	47.2	5.6							
May	47.1	44.2	2.9	53.2	46.8	6.4							
June	47.1	45.0	2.1	52.6	47.4	5.3							
July	48.7	44.8	3.9	53.3	46.8	6.5							
													
													
Kerry National Poll Projection (10 polls):													
Poll avg: 	48.7												
+ alloc:	4.6												
Projection:	53.3												
													
													
													
KERRY NATIONAL POLL WIN PROBABILITY													
													
                        Kerry%  Kerry% other/undecided				
        Kerry	Bush	/Bush   50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	
								
TIME	50.0	45.0	52.6	52.5	53.0	53.5	54.0	54.5	
FOX	45.0	44.0	50.6	50.5	51.6	52.7	53.8	54.9	
CNN	49.0	47.0	51.0	51.0	51.4	51.8	52.2	52.6	
LAT	48.0	46.0	51.1	51.0	51.6	52.2	52.8	53.4	
PEW	46.0	44.0	51.1	51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0	
										
IBD	44.0	41.0	51.8	51.5	53.0	54.5	56.0	57.5	
CBS	49.0	44.0	52.7	52.5	53.2	53.9	54.6	55.3	
DEMC	52.0	45.0	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7	
WP	48.0	49.0	49.5	49.5	49.8	50.1	50.4	50.7	
NWK	51.0	45.0	53.1	53.0	53.4	53.8	54.2	54.6	
										
ZOGBY	46.0	44.0	51.1	51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0	
AP	45.0	49.0	47.9	48.0	48.6	49.2	49.8	50.4	
NBC1	54.0	43.0	55.7	55.5	55.8	56.1	56.4	56.7	
NBC2	45.0	47.0	48.9	49.0	49.8	50.6	51.4	52.2	
ARG	49.0	45.0	52.1	52.0	52.6	53.2	53.8	54.4	
QPAC	46.0	43.0	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9	
										
Mean	47.94	45.06	51.53	51.44	52.14	52.84	53.54	54.24	
Std	2.77	2.08	1.82	1.75	1.68	1.69	1.76	1.89	
Stdm	0.69	0.52	0.46	0.44	0.42	0.42	0.44	0.47	
										
Before Stdm Adjustment (see below):										
Upper	53.37	49.13	55.10	54.87	55.44	56.15	56.99	57.95	
Lower	42.50	40.99	47.96	48.01	48.84	49.53	50.08	50.52	
X	49.13	49.13	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	
Prob >
x	33.34%	2.50%	79.92%	79.44%	89.77%	95.35%	97.77%	98.74%	
										
Adjusted Standard Error of the Mean (Stdm):										
									
95% Confidence Limits									
Range	Kerry	Bush							
Upper	49.30	46.08							
Lower	46.58	44.05							
x	46.08	46.08							
Prob > x	99.63%	2.50%							
									
Probability:									
95.00%	Kerry within Upper-Lower Range								
99.63%	Kerry exceeds Bush Upper Limit								
2.50%	Bush exceeds his Upper Limit								
									
99% Confidence Limits									
Range	Kerry	Bush							
Upper	49.73	46.40							
Lower	46.15	43.72							
x	46.40	46.40							
Prob > x	98.67%	0.49%							
									
Probability:									
99.00%	Kerry within Upper-Lower Range								
98.67%	Kerry exceeds Bush Upper Limit								
0.49%	Bush exceeds his Upper Limit								
									
									
Notes:									
Std =Standard Deviation (variability)									
Stdm = Standard Error of the Mean 									
Stdm = Std / sqrt(n) = Std / sqrt(16) = Std/4									
									
95% Confidence Limits formula:									
Upper Limit = Mean + 1.96*Stdm								
Lower Limit = Mean - 1.96* Stdm								
								
99% Confidence Limits formula:								
Upper Limit = Mean + 2.58*Stdm								
Lower Limit = Mean - 2.58* Stdm								
								
Notes:								
NBC1 - Princeton Associates								
NBC2 - Wall Street Journal								
CNN - Gallup								
WP - ABC								
								
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY								

State projected vote % weighted by percent of total vote in
last 3 elections.								

Kerry's projected vote % for each state is based on latest
state poll, 					
adjusted for allocation of undecided/other voters.					

Kerry probability of a state win is based on his projected
					
percentage of the vote (after the allocation adjustment)					


Most Likely Case					
Assume 70% of Undecided/other voters for Kerry					
Win	Prob.	Pct	EV		
Kerry	96.8%	52.6%	322		
Bush	3.2%	47.4%	216		

Historical Vote, Kerry Projection and Win Probability 					
Dem% is Democratic % of 2-party vote in last three
presidential elections.					
													
-------	Dem	Kerry	Kerry	EV Trials runs 1-10 of 1000									
-------	Hist	Proj.	Prob.	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
State	52.60%	52.60%	96.8%	330	377	311	361	320	328	335	330	322	335
													
AL	44.8	45.0	10.6				9		9				
AK	37.6	40.7	1.0										
AZ	48.8	53.9	83.5	10	10	10	10		10	10	10	10	10
AR	55.2	50.6	56.0	6		6	6		6		6	6	6
CA	57.4	58.1	97.9	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
													
CO	48.8	49.3	43.1				9	9	9	9			9
CT	57.7	62.6	99.9	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	96.2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
DC	90.3	90.4	100.0	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	50.1	51.0	27	27		27			27			27
													
GA	47.6	45.7	14.1	15									15
HI	59.0	60.9	99.7	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.3										
IL	57.9	60.0	99.4	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	15.3					11					
													
IA	51.8	51.1	60.8	7	7	7	7	7	7		7	7	7
KS	42.4	41.6	1.8										
KY	46.7	46.2	17.1										
LA	49.2	44.4	8.1										
ME	57.1	52.3	71.7	4		4	4		4	4	4		4
													
MD	57.8	58.6	98.4	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	66.7	100.0	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	55.1	89.9	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	
MN	55.7	51.2	61.8	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MS	44.3	36.3	0.0										
													
MO	52.5	51.1	60.8		11	11		11	11		11	11	11
MT	44.9	42.8	3.6										
NE	37.5	36.5	0.0										
NV	49.9	51.9	68.3		5		5		5	5			5
NH	51.7	54.7	88.0	4	4		4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
NJ	56.5	53.9	83.5	15	15	15	15		15	15	15		
NM	53.0	56.2	93.9		5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
NY	62.6	65.0	100.0	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	47.5	26.6		15								15
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1										
													
OH	50.8	50.5	55.0		20			20			20		
OK	42.8	39.2	0.3										
OR	53.6	55.5	91.5	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
PA	54.2	54.1	84.7	21	21	21		21	21	21	21	21	21
RI	65.6	64.2	100.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
SC	44.4	47.5	26.6	8		8		8		8			
SD	44.5	44.8	9.7								3		
TN	50.5	51.8	67.4		11	11		11	11	11	11	11	
TX	44.3	42.6	3.2				34					34	
UT	33.6	29.7	0.0										
													
VT	59.4	60.1	99.4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	48.5	35.4		13		13		13	13			
WA	55.9	54.8	88.5	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
WV	54.0	49.6	46.0	5	5	5	5	5		5	5	5	5
WI	52.7	52.8	75.8	10	10	10	10	10			10	10	10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.0										
													
Avg	52.60%	52.60%	96.8%	330	377	311	361	320	328	335	330	322	335
													

[swag]

1. I search your handle in author search every day

Thanks.

Some DU poll pundits like to disparage anybody who does anything with data, but I like your daily updates and find them fascinating.

[malachibk]

3. Mee too.

But I don't like the probability seems to be going down!

[Elidor]

4. Yes, I noticed that, too

What is it, about 1% per week? Makes me uneasy.

[swag]

2. Oh, PS, I assume you have seen the "Cook Political Report"

linked from mydd.com:

http://www.cookpolitical.com/column/2004/072504.php

Interesting analysis on undecided breaks.

[Blue-Jay]

5. Quick question:

I'd heard that, on average, 80-85% undecided votes go against the incumbant for the past thirty years or so. If that's true, even your Most Likely Case scenario is a bit on the conservative side. (good news there)

Thoughts? Did someone just pull that figure out of their ass (80-85%) and it stuck in my head somehow?

Anyhow, thanks for the continued hard work TIA. I love looking at numbers.

EDIT: Thanks for that link, swag!

[TruthIsAll]

6. I read that historically 60-80% go to the challenger.

Seems to make sense. Because by definition, if they liked the incumbent, its not likely they would still be undecided.

I split the 60-80 down the middle to play it safe.

[Blue-Jay]

7. Fair enough.

I wonder what the percentage is regarding undecides when you factor in the years that the country was at war, as opposed to peace-time election years.

[AndyTiedye]

8. Historically, We Had a Free Press -- Now The Regime Controls the Press

We will not get 70% of the undecided vote under these conditions.
We probably will get less than half of it.

We need to register more new Democrats. Lots more.

[LiberalManiacfromOC]

9. great info as usual

thanks for the update