Zogby Bump - Before the speech - Already up 5 points.

[MikeG]

There will more added after.

Average convention bounce - 5 points.

[Doug Decker]

1. Do you have a link?

I checked the web site but I couldn't find the specific info on convention bounce.

I probably looked in the wrong place.

Thanks.

[MikeG]

2. From CNN - Joe Jahns.

[never_get_over_it]

3. Actually that is Joe Johns

eom

[Rowdyboy]

4. If its 5% in todays climate

it's a blowout!

[Reciprocity]

5. I took the poll today before the convention.

So it may be much higher before all is said and done.

[Th1onein]

6. I saw that Zogby poll.......

If you count the undecideds, which usually go to the challenger, Kerry is very close to 58% and with this bump, he's over 60%. I said it before, and I'll say it again: It will be a Kerry landslide with at least 65% of the popular vote in his favor.

And, yes, I think that we will take every state.

[tkmorris]

7. Man....

If you got any more optimistic your head would explode into millions of little pink fuzzy bubbles.

But I like it :toast:

[stewert]

8. Every State ?

Not hardly, Bush is ahead by 20 points in some of the red states.

I predicted Kerry would win big too, by 5 million votes or more. But he will never win every state.

You think Kerry will win Montana, Bush has a 20 point lead there, 53% to 33%.

In North Dakota Bush has a 28 point lead, 61% to 33%.

In Nebraska Bush has a 29 point lead, 62% to 33%.

Kerry is still going to win though, because a lot of those states do not have many electoral votes. Kerry is winning in all the Big states except Texas and maybe Florida. Bush has a 1 point lead in Florida and a 1 point lead in Ohio. But if Kerry can win those 2 states he will crush Bush.

[Fed Up]

9. wow you're putting my hopes up too high.

60% woo-hoo.

[Veggie Meathead]

10. Happy days are here again! The pretender in the WH is done!

We are not only going to take the Presidency, but the Senate and the House as well. The Republican Party is dead!

[NewJeffCT]

12. Can you bottle that optimism?

And sell some of it to me?

I guess I'm just a New England pessimist, but the first presidential election I voted in was 1988 - I missed voting for Mondale in '84 by less than a month, so I was anxious to vote for President - and I remember Dukakis being way, way up (17 or 18 points) after the Democratic convention only to see it all fade away.

I see too many opportunities for "October surprises" - Osama being hauled out of carbonite storage; finding WMD in Iraq that we planted under a turkey farm; etc.

My big fear is something similar to what some in the military had planned under Kennedy - terror bombings in the US to blame on the Cubans as a pretext for invasion. Kennedy had to personally nix that plan. If a similar plan came before Bush to blame on Iran or Syria, would he have the guts to say 'no'?

Not to mention the specter of Black Box Voting.

[Killarney]

11. great news

[seabeyond]

13. here is address to zogby

this wont do it

[seabeyond]

14. see if this gets you in

http://interactive.zogby.com/fuse/index.cfm

[seabeyond]

15. wow, this is an interesting place

havent seen this before, but i might check it out.

cant find link to polls