Stock market and Kerry

[MaineSheAck]

Why does Wall St seem to go down when Kerry goes up? Is it fear of bigger govt or more programs tapping into incomes or what? I am not a market smarty pants but I have retirement funds in there so I'd like to understand this inverse reaction.

[bklyncowgirl]

1. Tax increase on persons making more than $200,000 a year n/t

[union_maid]

3. The stock market is kind of stupid

Of course, that's assuming that the correlation is even true. It's speculation to say that Kerry ups equal market downs. There's been plenty of dismal economic news to give the market jitters with inflation fears, the recent reports that have given a more rounded picture of the so-called job gains, the declining income of Americans and rising oil prices. Business historically does better under Democrats. Business likes the freedom to run roughshod over workers and the environment so it supports Republicans, but in fact, Democrats are good for business. I'm a lot more worried about my retirement prospects under this administration than any other and I'll be a lot more optomistic about being able to retire at all if Kerry wins.

[JSJ]

2. bush will get the blame for the sinking market from thinking people...

...and if the dow dips below 10k before the election then bush is becomes day old pretzels.

[Birthmark]

4. I doubt that your premise is true.

[MaineSheAck]

5. That's because I presented no premise

I said it "seems".

[Justice]

7. Based on What - can you give us a link to an article?

or a link to a website where the issue was discussed. There are no facts here - just wild false accusations.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Birthmark]

11. Seems?

Oh, well then there's to which I can respond. It seems you said nothing at all.

[Justice]

6. Actually No, Stock Market Goes Down When People React

to profits that are lower than expected, or because the jobs unemployment report is higher than expected, or because the market is worried about the price of oil, due to the instability in the world (caused in large part by "W's" war).

[Ganja Ninja]

8. The stock market went down before Carter and Clinton were ...

elected. In both cases the markets rallied after the election. The markets always react to uncertainty by going down. Uncertainty has more to do with it than Kerry's policies. With the price of oil at record highs, the war going badly, record deficits, soon to be rising interest rates and a possible change in governments, it's know wonder that investors are holding back.

[napi21]

10. Stock Market does not like change of any kind!

If it's going down, that means they must think Kerry has a good chance to win! They aren't sure what this new person is going to do, and they get very nervous about the unknown.

[Crankie Avalon]

12. I'm in the same boat as you...

...a person with some money in a retirement (long way off for me) account and a little in mutual funds, but I have no idea why Wall Streeters say some of the things they do.

I've been listening to some of the things they've been saying on the cable investment shows the last few years, and it seems like their "sage advice" is more "shot in the dark", since their predictions turn out to be wrong as often as they go on to become true.

I got spammed by some guy named Tobin Smith the other day. I'm cutting and pasting part of what this guy sent me and other people who somehow got on his mailing list. Take it for what it's worth that this guy is (1) a contributor on "Bulls and Bears" (an investment show on FOX) and (2) that he's trying to scare people into paying for subscriptions to his service ("Everyone will lose money if such-and-such happens--EXCEPT IF THEY PAY FOR AND USE THE TIPS OF THE GREAT AND WONDERFUL ME!!!")...

"Boston is swarming with Democrats. And Wall Street is drowning in worry.
The sight of John Kerry pulling into town with the White House in his sights, practically has traders in tears.
That's why Tuesday's big rally--with the Dow up over 100 points--wilted yesterday, like a bowl of soggy French fries under a quart of Heinz ketchup. Between Teresa's speech Tuesday...John Edwards rallying the faithful last night...and Kerry, himself, taking center stage tonight...
...Wall Street is overdosing on everything it fears most.
Another car bomb slaughters 60 civilians in Iraq? That's becoming so commonplace, it barely stirs the market.
Will Alan Greenspan and his cronies continue to jack up interest rates? Already priced into the market.
$42 oil? Every trader knows there's at least a $10 "fear premium" baked in just in case.
These three concerns--and dozens more I could name--are typical fare. And typically--given strong corporate earnings and good overall economic numbers--Wall Street would just use them as stepping-stones to climb that proverbial "wall of worry."
But--and this is critically important--big investors are preoccupied, even downright scared by a much more insidious danger to worry about.
A danger many of them believe could send stocks reeling...dump the economy back into recession...and cost them billions in personal wealth:
The Kerry Crash
That's right. Everything else is little more than a distraction. But Wall Street is very, very nervous about the prospect of the Democrat from Massachusetts residing in the White House.
A Democrat with a voting record that makes Ted Kennedy look like a moderate.
A guy who is pleading for the populist vote by promising the rich will -- and must -- pay more.
And a tax-happy guy from a tax-happy state who would love to eliminate the dividends and capital gains tax cuts that Wall Streeters dote on.
That's who traders see when they look at John Kerry, and they don't like it one bit. Neither do I.
But where more and more investing gurus are forecasting calamity ahead on the heels of a John Kerry victory in November, I'm here to tell you...
... it's NOT going to happen!
So am I, Tobin Smith, predicting a George Bush victory?
Most certainly not. I'm just telling you -- and I urge you to play close attention -- there WON'T be a "Kerry Crash."
Frankly, my friend, I have no idea who will win the election.
In all likelihood, it'll all come down to a handful of votes in a few swing states. And the TV networks will be tripping all over each other in their mad-rush to be first with the call.
But I'm NOT going there.
I'm not some political prognosticator. I'm merely an interested observer. And a seasoned investor who wants you to know that for investors...
... it doesn't matter one bit whether George Bush or John Kerry wins the White House.
Smart investors -- those who know where the real opportunity and dangers lay -- can make plenty of profits in either case.
You see, John Kerry may become our next President. But he'll be a Democratic chief of state, facing a hostile Republican Congress. Don't look for tax increases and anti-investing legislation anytime soon. Look for four years of gridlock instead.
So what really matters to us as investors now? Rising interest rates, for one. Certain industries almost always falter in this sort of environment -- while others truly shine.
But there's one more, much more critical measuring stick of your success -- or lack of it -- in the months ahead.
Investors who take this immutable truth to heart can be 40%-60% richer by this time next year. But those who ignore it face stunning losses instead."

Yeah, whatever fella--I'm still voting Kerry.