Why Bush won't dump Cheney.

[carpetbagger]

This has been off and on my mind for a while, so no better time than the present.

Karl Rove has been trying to re-create the McKinley presidency. I could leave links, but just Google "Bush Rove McKinley", and about half of what's on the first page are well-written articles from bonafide paper and internet media which describe Rove's fascination with McKinley. To summarize:

1. The 1896-1900 elections are seen as a bellweather election, one that consolidated the victory of the pro-commerce republicans.
2. McKinley had unpopular economic policies favoring the rich, but he was able to count on support of regional division, portrayals of populist economics as extremist, media support, and other side issues and advantages to win election. Coincidentally, the democratic incumbant had a sex scandal.
3. McKinley was of course a "war president", misattributing the explosion that destroyed the Maine as a state-sponsored terrorist attack.

This is the key reason why Bush won't dump Cheney, at least not for McCain, Powell, or Giuliani (and of the three, only Giuliani would accept the nomination)...

In 1899, McKinley's VP died in office. He picked popular war hero Theodore Roosevelt to replace him on the ticket. McKinley won reelection, but died in office early in his second term. Roosevelt then steered the party, American economic policy, and frankly the course of American history in a progressive direction which culminated in the New Deal.

Sure, the main reason Bush won't dump Cheney is that he sticks by the people who tell him he's Jesus Churchill. He is also a young man, and long after 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, he's still going to have to face dad, Uncle Dick, Bandar Bush, and all the moneybags who made his life easy. But on top of that, add the reason that Karl Rove, who thinks he's some type of historian, would never allow it to happen.

[doctorbombeigh]

1. Bush can't lose FU, FU's the president

Besides, while it would have helped him in the election - they blew their shot. FU needed to have health problems, no stretch of the imagination, that would have retired him last year. It's too late in the season now, or they surely would.

Still, the way things are going for Bush Re-Select, I don't know that Giuliani or even Powell could have saved him.

[Enraged_Ape]

2. Bush won't dump Cheney because Cheney is THE FREAKIN' PRES!

It would be like Gilligan dumping the Skipper. It just ain't gonna happen.

[Literate Tar Heel]

3. I could be wrong, but it seems you undermine your own argument

the comparison to McKinley is nice and I give props for that, but you're citing 1896-1900 elections as reasons Bush won't run without Cheney, and then you show that McKinley ran for office the second time without the vice president he ran with the first time ... why does this show that Bush will stick with Cheney?

these people today will stop at nothing to stay in power ... why would they not put Powell or McCain or Giuliani on the ticket if they felt that was a last resort to staying in power?

[carpetbagger]

5. He's not going to dump Cheney for a progressive...

...and the only reason he would dump Cheney would be to appeal to voters. I can't possibly see how dumping Cheney for Rice, Frist, or anyone from his wing of the party would help him. So if it wouldn't help him a lot, it would undermine his "don't change horses in midstream" campaign.

McKinley's VP died, so he had to pick a new one, and so the comparison isn't direct.

As to them stopping at nothing to stay in power, I think Bush would count on winning debates rather than swapping VP's after the convention, and he won't start to really panic until late September. As to the others, Cheney can't replace Cheney and stay in power, and I think Rove will really stay up at night thinking about this legacy thing.

That's my hunch. Thanks for yours.

[Literate Tar Heel]

6. ha, Bush win a debate!!!!

if their "strategery" is for Bush to win the debates, then they may as well pack up their stuff now ... that's not even an option ... Bush absolutely cannot beat Kerry over the course of 3 debates ... their only option is for some "terror alert" to cancel them all

[carpetbagger]

9. He's never lost one.

George Bush stays on message and is a snake-charmer. The debate format, where two debates are content-specific, helps him immensely in trying to memorize his lines.

To win a debate, all Bush needs to do is be declared the winner by the ringside judges. If those judges are Roberts, Rather, Matthews, Woodruff, Russert, and Hume, he gets 3 votes for showing up and 2 more for sticking to his canned wisecracks and platitudes.

[tritsofme]

12. You're exactly right

People don't like to hear this, because it sounds so absurd at first glance. How could this boy idiot "win" in a debate against Kerry? The Bush people set the bar low, and as long as he does "ok" the talking heads declare him the winner, talk about his charm ect ect. Its as simple as that.

I saw it happen in 2000, and I fully expect to see it again.

[Literate Tar Heel]

13. no, no, it worked in 2000

because Bush was relatively unknown ... they can't play the same "strategery" again ... he's the President of the freakin' United States of America ... if he gets his ass handed to him in a debate, people will take notice ... there were no such expectations 4 years ago ... the bar is higher for him now whether he likes it or not, and there's no way he can make his way over it

[tritsofme]

14. Who was it that said...

"Nobody ever went broke betting on the idiocy of the American voters"

[klyon]

15. debates?

Have debates been agreed to? Scheduled?
Didn't the media portray Bush the winner against Gore?
Personally I thought Gore was better but some say I'm biased.

KL

[yardwork]

8. Because Rove might fear that the new VP would eventually become pres

and take the country in a more progressive direction than Bush/Cheny/Rove intend.

[aquart]

4. The Gilded Age.

The wealthy were so egregious in their behavior, so cruel to honest working people that America accepted income taxes, labor laws, food and drug laws......

If Rove is working on the assumption that if only the Veep hadn't croaked, and if only McKinley hadn't croaked, America would be paradise, he is dangerously deluded. From the railroad riots in 1877 to the Haymarket Massacre to The Jungle to the Triangle Shirtwaist fire......America was seething and fighting and waiting....not unlike now.

[DianeG5385]

7. Wasn't McKinley assassinated?

Was it an anarchist or something related to his policies? If you're making an analogy knowing this would be important and I am not well versed on that period in history.

[carpetbagger]

11. Yes.

I think Bush both fears and dreams about becomming a martyr at times. It's well known that he dreaded his Turkee run to Baghdad.

I think Rove et al will think this, but it will probably not enter polite conversation. As to health, Bush is young, and the dude's resting pulse is in the low 40's. He is what he does, a full-time athlete.

But I think this is the reason for keeping Cheney that goes bump in the night. In daylight, it might surface as an image of a President Giuliani, or a President Pataki, running in 08 and gutting the environmental, business, and fundamentalist successes of the administration. But by night, it just shows up as the need to foster the revolution and not drop the ball.

[PurityOfEssence]

10. He's a privileged nobody who's always been trying to prove his manliness

As such, he struts and puffs to seem like what he presumes masculinity to be: he's a bully and lives a life of bitter and petty vengeance in his quest to dominate.

Since he has only the superficial view of what masculinity is, he typifies the worst of the beast, and will never ask for directions or admit a mistake.

(It's all sort of a silly exercise anyway, because it presumes that Junior is really in charge...)

[UTUSN]

16. CHEENEE Won't Finish the Next 4 Years

1- Because JK's gonna win, but

2- In the nightmare that Shrub steals another 4 years, CHEENEE will resign/retire for health reasons, thus giving Shrub a chance to appoint an heir to run as an incumbent, unless

3- Shrub just goes for the gold and takes emperor-for-life.